HOME AT 7-1 FOR SECOND CHRISTMAS DOUBLE: Daqman landed the two Grade-1 events at Leopardstown yesterday within 35 minutes: a 7-1 win in the Christmas Hurdle and the nap in the Savills Chase. That gave him four big winners in Christmas week, taking him 8-5 up on Pricewise of the Racing Post:
Wednesday: profit on the day 16.80
WON 7-1 HOME BY THE LEE (BETDAQ value at 8.9 taken)
WON 2-1 CONFLATED (nap)
Boxing Day: profit on the day 26.35
WON 11-4 BRAVEMANSGAME (2nd Royal Pagaille 12-1)
WON 4-1 INTO OVERDRIVE (BETDAQ value at 6.8 taken)
TON-UP BET TODAY: Daqman stakes an 11.0 BETDAQ ante-post offer to win 100 points. Plus Leopardstown and Doncaster on terrestrial TV.
BE BRAVE WITH 11.0 BETDAQ GOLD
Back the price not the horse. The search for value gets even harder, unless you’re in the mobile market of BETDAQ trading where you have the chance to get the price you ask for.
Right across a bonanza of big races from Leopardstown to Wetherby this Christmas week, the lesson of value betting has been an open book.
INTO OVERDRIVE (WON 4-1 from BETDAQ 6.8) had won five chases out of six, two of them at Wetherby, two Grade 3, beaten only by L’Homme Presse.
For me he was about 2-1 for the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day but I could get 6.8 on BETDAQ and, pushed five lengths ahead two out, he won at 4-1.
HOME BY THE LEE (WON 7-1 from BETDAQ 8.9) stayed on stoutly to beat Bob Olinger, Ashdale Lad, Flooring Porter and Zanahiyr at Navan in November.
Yet he was 8.9 on BETDAQ for the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown yesterday and, at that price, I decided I would call out the knockers who said Navan was a fluke.
I thought he should have been no bigger than 5-1 so I went in again when he was available close to the race at 7-1.
He won again, beating Ashdale Bob, Flooring Porter and Bob Olinger, with Zanahiyr pulled up.
BRAVEMANSGAME Here’s Gold Cup value waiting for you on BETDAQ. Why? Well, he keeps doing it but the knockers keep at him: they say the King George winner won’t beat L’Homme Presse again because that one gets the left-handed track he needs at Cheltenham.
That’s a consideration if they’re both 3-1 or 4-1 in a race and you need to sharpen your resolve.
But Bravemansgame is 11.0 in BETDAQ Sportsbook for Cheltenham in March.
That’s the first thing in his favour. Secondly, he won’t run again until then, and some among the opposition may ruin their chances, or fall off the wagon, along on the way to Prestbury Park.
MESNIL ANOTHER FOR MULLINS
⭕ 1.45 Leopardstown (Neville Hotels Novice Chase Grade 1) Double Grade 1 action at Leopardstown on Thursday and although the field sizes are small they’ve fared a lot better than Limerick where the Grade 2 Kew Gardens Hurdle has shrunk to a match and a very one-sided one at that with Brazil one for the money buyers.
This Grade 1 novice chase should be fought out as the Betdaq Betting Exchange suggests between the two trainers that have monopolised Christmas week. Willie Mullins (13 winners since Christmas Day) saddles Gaillard Du Mesnil whilst Gordon Elliott (9 winners since Christmas Day) runs Three Stripe Life.
Three Stripe Life is on a recovery mission having had no luck in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse when his saddle slipped after making a bad mistake at the 8th.
It was far too early to say what would have happened or indeed how close he would have got to eventual runner-up and today’s chief rival Gaillard Du Mesnil but it would come as no surprise to see the Willie Mullins runner have his measure again given he brings good Grade 1 chase form into the race.
Gaillard Du Mesnil should also be suited by the step up in trip. The early Betdaq money last night was for Three Stripe Life who was rated 2lb inferior over hurdles and might have to play second fiddle here over the bigger obstacles.
STATING THE CASE
⭕ 2.20 Leopardstown (Matheson Hurdle Grade 1) State Man can dominate the second Grade 1 on the card which is a Willie Mullins domination with the front three in the market in a five runner event.
Paul Townend looks to be on the right one in the shape of State Man who now bids for a five-timer and a hat-trick of Grade 1’s.
He had four lengths in hand over stable companion Sharjah in the Morgiana last month and it’s hard to see his older rival reversing that form despite his superlative record in this race with four previous wins.
Indeed a bigger danger may emerge from the new kid on the block Vauban who, like Sharjah, runs in the Ricci colours.
Vaudan was really impressive when last seen at Punchestown where he landed the odds in style in the Champion Four Year Old Hurdle but is still 8lb inferior to State Man in form book terms if the official ratings can be believed.
SUE IS ONE FOR ME
⭕ 3.20 Kelso Phillipa Sue romped home by seven lengths at Hereford last time out and the resulting 8lb penalty might not be enough to stop her.
It was her handicap debut and her first completed start over a longer trip – both factors which helped but the bottom line must be that she remains well handicapped. She had plenty of placed form in bumpers and novice events including on today’s forecast heavy ground.
Her chance here has been boosted considerably by the defection of Missed Tee for the Skeltons. She misses it on account of the ground and the course can’t take much more rain. It passed an early inspection this morning but it will be attritional.
DAQMAN’S BETS
FORTUNE COOKIE
BRAZIL (1.30 Limerick)
ANTE-POST (win 100)
BET 10pts win BRAVEMANSGAME
(Cheltenham Gold Cup)
1.45 Leopardstown (win 10)
BET 6.25pts win GAILLARD DU MESNIL
2.20 Leopardstown (win 10, nap)
BET 11.0pts win STATE MAN
3.20 Kelso (win 10)
BET 5.7pts win PHILLIPA SUE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
