LAYERS ALERT! NAPS FOUR-TIMER: Daqman, who landed the 14-1 Amateur National winner in Ireland on Sunday, completed a four-timer of naps yesterday with Danger Alert on the All-weather in England, giving him another daily profit.
Naps four-timer: 63 points profit
WON 11-10 DANGER ALERT (Monday nap)
WON 9-4 THEREISNODOUBT (Sunday nap)
WON 9-2 GREY DAWNING (Saturday nap)
WON 11-10 TOM CREEN (Friday nap)
CHEPSTOW AND NEWBURY LOST: Chepstow has been lost to frozen ground today and tomorrow’s Newbury card is also cancelled. All the more reason for the big race at Ascot on Saturday to be a waiting game.. waiting on the weather and waiting for BETDAQ offers, says Daqman.
EDWARDSTONE A BETDAQ BET
It’s a story punters hate. The old story of too many Group and Graded races in the last few years offering only very small fields and very cramped odds.
You’ll need to be with BETDAQ if you want a bet in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot on Saturday.
The bookies are fond of the 4-6, 6-4 situation of a two-horse race. All they do is open 4-7, 6-4 (or worse) and they have a minimum 103.6% overround of percentages and then, as bets are laid, can play their book to hold on to the profit margin.
In fact, the consensus for Saturday’s match between Energumene and FORTUNE COOKIE Edwardstone is 8-13 and 6-4, but is the market the wrong way round?
Energumene is ante-post favourite but he was headed toward the finish of the Clarence House by Shishkin last year.
And Shishkin trailed in nine lengths and six lengths behind Edwardstone and Greaneteen in the Tingle Creek in December.
There were excuses for Shishkin that day just as, later in the month, there were excuses for Edwardstone when he unseated rider in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton’s King George meeting.
Officially the ratings are 176 Energumene and 170 Edwardstone. Yet, at the same time, they have kept Greaneteen on 170 despite that nine-lengths defeat by Edwardstone in the Tingle Creek.
By that measure, Edwardstone, who won readily, should be on at least 180. That would be over the top but, in my opinion, their very reluctance to give him any extra at all makes Edwardstone the value bet.
As I was saying, you are more likely to get that on BETDAQ on the day. By then, you will also know whether Edwardstone has the soft ground he needs.
LOGIC TO OPPOSE TIMEWAVE
⭕ 3.15 Kempton Andrew Balding has saddled eight winners this year already, all bar one ridden by David Probert, including four winners and two placed out of six runners at Kempton.
Two things you look for with youngsters from top yards: did they start out at Newmarket; have they had their three quiet runs and got themselves a decent slot in the handicap?
Both apply to Balding’s Dandy Man colt, Logistical, who steps up to the trip he needs for the first time.
Timewave could also be ‘anything’ at this stage, and receives 11lb from Logistical, with Hollie Doyle up.
But trainer Charlie Johnson, who started the year well, then hit a patch where his favourites and short-odds runners were missing strike: 22223, four of them market leaders at the ‘off.’
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.55 Logistical
SEE SENSE WITH SECURITY
⭕ 3.50 Kempton Sense Of Security has been beaten less than two lengths in each of his last three starts.
Enter amateur rider Simon Walker, who currently has a 50% strike rate and is 21% overall on rides for George Baker.
Baker himself is getting 100% out of his horses, according to the Racing Post’s admirable assessment of how his runners are measuring up to their rating. BETDAQ 4.6.
⭕ 5.30 Southwell George Boughey (36 wins) and Michael Appleby (28) are a street ahead in the AW championships.
Boughey runs a rank outsider at Kempton but Appleby, who has four at Southwell, has booked Tom Marquand for just one ride, CD-winner Mehmo, who needs strong handling.
Bernard Spierpoint won this race last year, came back to form early in the month, and the handicapper has kindly dropped him a few pounds for defeat over further the last day.
BETDAQ value 5.4 Mehmo, 6.6 Bernard Spierpoint
KIHAVAH TOO BIG AT 12.0
⭕ 6.30 Southwell Adrian Keatley is the man in form here, with 4-5 placed this year, two of them winners, one at Kempton (AW) one over hurdles at Doncaster.
Kihavah, who has won on the Flat (turf) in this grade at York, and is a class-2 player over hurdles, has had wind ops recently to help him finish. Paul Mulrennan rides for the first time. BETDAQ 12.0
Thunder Ahead (Tom Marquand again) could also do better after a wind op; he was a close second, back to form at Wolverhampton in December and today’s trip is his winning one on AW.
The unexposed Vega Sicilia won well, also at Wolverhampton in December, and Qaasid scored at Southwell, first run back after a close third in class 3 at Lingfield.
Haku is on a roll but 17lb higher than at the start of his hat-trick. BETDAQ 6.9 Qaasid
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.15 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 4pts win LOGISTICAL
3.50 Kempton (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win SENSE OF SECURITY
5.30 Southwell (win 12 each)
BET 2.75pts win MEHMO
BET 2pts win BERNARD SPIERPOINT
6.30 Southwell (win 12 each)
BET 2pts win QAASID
BET 1pt win KIHAVAH
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
