MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews UDINESE v HELLAS VERONA and VILLARREAL v RAYO VALLECANO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UDINESE V HELLAS VERONA
7.45pm Monday night football from Europe this week comes from Serie A and La Liga. While we might not have the most glamorous ties, we do have two very interesting markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We kick off the action in Serie A with Udinese hosting Hellas Verona, with Udinese coming into the game as the odds on favourites but there are plenty of willing layers too – they are currently trading 1.93 at the time of writing. Hellas Verona have got a result in three of their four games since resuming their season after the World Cup, and they’ve also won two of those games. They are still slap-bang in the relegation battle, but those results have given them a small fighting chance. The problem for Hellas Verona is the bottom three became a little adrift before the World Cup, and even with those two wins they still started the matchday five points away from safety. This is an important game for both sides – Udinese started the weekend sitting in seventh, and although Juventus getting docked 15 points helps them they still have a big fight on to get a European spot.
In fairness, even for Udinese to be in the mix for a European spot is a good season for them. They finished in 12th last season and 14th the season before that. They have been grinding out results this season, but when you look at their under-lining numbers I would be surprised if they managed to get European football. They are basically conceding what they create looking at their xG figures, and that’s not good enough if they want to sit in the battle for the top six. They started the season on fire, but the World Cup came at a good time for them – they had gone seven games without a win, and even when they returned they didn’t get a win from their first three games. Obviously Hellas Verona are a long way off the level of Udinese, but both sides are actually conceding the same average xG figure at 1.3. Hellas Verona are more limited going forward, but there isn’t a huge difference and I wouldn’t back a home win here at 1.93. I feel we’ll get a very tight game here between two sides who don’t create much – Under 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at the same price as the Udinese win!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UdiHel
VILLARREAL V RAYO VALLECANO
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the evening as Villarreal host Rayo Vallecano. Once again, not the most glamorous tie in La Liga but another interesting market. Villarreal come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.72, and I’m sure they’ll be a popular selection. They started the weekend sitting up in fifth and seemingly haven’t missed Unay Emery leaving for Aston Villa. I have to say I was very surprised to see him leave Villarreal for a club where Villa are, but I suppose that shows the pull (and money) of the Premier League at the moment! Villarreal started the weekend seven points behind Real Sociedad sitting in third, but they have finished the last two seasons poorly and they’ll be hoping they do the same this year. They had the same amount of points as Atletico Madrid in fourth, but you’d expect to see Atletico in the top four. Sevilla being so poor this season has really opened things up, and Villarreal could get Champions League football. To do that, they have to be winning games like this. Even though Rayo Vallecano are having a good season sitting in mid-table, if Villarreal actually want to finish in the top four they can’t afford to drop points in fixtures at home against mid-table sides. Villarreal have been top class at home this season – they sat second in the home form table before this weekend started. What is interesting about Rayo Vallecano however is that they have been impressive away from home – they sat up in fifth in the away form table!
When you look at the Rayo Vallecano under-lining numbers, I’d expect them to fall down the table as the season goes on. It’s only marginal, but they are conceding a bigger xG figure at the back compared to what they are creating. Once again, it’s only marginal but they are doing the opposite of that at the moment – creating marginally more but eventually sides will start taking their chances against them. Villarreal put in a very impressive performance last weekend here against Girona, only winning 1-0 but finishing the game with an xG of 2.83. They have been playing an open game this season, despite that not being reflected in their recent score lines. They were very poor away to Celta Vigo, but you can’t knock their three home performances since the World Cup – they even beat Real Madrid and created an xG of 2.55. I’m going to keep stakes small here, but Villarreal look a very solid option at 1.72 with home advantage. They are a lot more comfortable here and their performances overall this season have been better than Rayo Vallecano.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Villarreal to beat Rayo Vallecano at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VilRay
