GALOPIN DAQMAN’S 103 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman promised to do his homework for the weekend and resume where he left off in January (36 winners with 13 winning naps). The result yesterday was a profit of 103 points with a nap and a double of 20-point Fortune Cookies:
WON 10-11 GERRI COLOMBE (nap) from 2.46 on BETDAQ
WON 6-1 GREEN BOOK (Fortune Cookie, 8.5 on BETDAQ)
WON 30-100 GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (Irish Gold Cup)
(Stattler 2nd 11-2 for a Fortune Cookies one-two)
DUBLIN FESTIVAL DAY-2 RACE BY RACE: It’s Irish Champion Hurdle day and Daqman goes through the Dublin Festival card (at least with his analysis!). He says: ‘It’s a very tough meeting but I’m missing out Musselburgh instead; I have a poor record at their championship meeting so I won’t burden you with my bets.’
DANCE THE SECOND-DAY NAP
⭕ 1.10 Leopardstown (Paddy Mullins Mares’ Handicap Hurdle) Willie Mullins won three yesterday, including 9-2 shots twice, so you couldn’t rely on the hot-pots in his sequence.
This is not a Mullins race and his shorter-priced one, Risk Belle, would be a rare winner at the age of only four.
His 8.6 Betdaq Betting Exchange offer, Historique Reconce, could be the bet, though absent 177 days. A winner on his first run for Mullins on good ground, leaving behind the soft-heavy of his French form up to Grade 3.
But Gordon Elliott has won in two of the last three years, and Liberty Dance (BETDAQ 4.5 this morning) quickly moved up to success at Listed level with 2-2 in December.
JAMES ANOTHER FOR JACOBS
⭕ 1.40 Leopardstown (Grade 1 novice chase) Mullins goes for a four-timer in this with five of the six runners.
His hat-trick was performed by Faugheen, Monkfish and Galopin Des Champs, so one among today’s Closutton players could be top class. But which one?
It shouldn’t be Gaillard Du Mesnil after his Drinmore defeat by an impressive Mighty Potter.
James Du Berlais was a Grade-1 level hurdler who hit the ground running with a 15-lengths first chase win on New Year’s Day.
Daryl Jacob rides after his dramatic 10-lengths demolition of the Arkle field yesterday on El Fabiolo. BETDAQ 4.0.
⭕ 2.10 Leopardstown (Dublin Chase) Blue Lord was destined for a 2m 4f programme but Mullins may target the champion chases after his Christmas cracker (2m 1f).
That was here at Leopardstown, where his bid for back-to-back CD wins has frightened off the opposition, barring a couple of old boys who are 9lb behind him at least.
18.5 OFFER LOOKS TOO LARGE
⭕ 2.40 Leopardstown Chase Arkle landed a hat-trick in this when it was a three-miler; best performance for me since was when I gave the layers a spanking with Empire Of Dirt (2016 over 2m 5f at 8-1).
Foxrock the year before that was the only winner to carry more than 10st 13lb in the decade.
Farceur Du Large has just a pound more than that. He didn’t see out the 3m of a big Christmas chase here the last day but has won 2-3 at trips similar to today’s. Blinkers first time will help the BETDAQ 18.5 offer.
MULLINS FOR TASTE OF HONEY
⭕ 3.10 Leopardstown (Irish Champion Hurdle) Another Willie Mullins puzzle. Dare I say that it’s which one will beat Honeysuckle? State Man or Vauban.
Honeysuckle bids for a four-timer previously only achieved by Istabraq (1998-2001) and Hurricane Fly (2011-15).
But lines to form in my preview in the week suggested either/or State Man and Vauban for Mullins have the advantage on collateral form, and they have three and four years of scope over the nine-year-old whose reputation has already been dented this season.
➡️ ORDER IN with BETDAQ offers this morning: 1 State Man 1.91 went clear of 2 Vauban 5.8 here over Christmas but had the advantage of a previous race. He may just have the edge again with 3 Honeysuckle 3.3 likely to run another sound race in vain.
DEFINITION OF A VALUE BET
⭕ 3.40 Leopardstown (Grade 1 novice hurdle) Willie Mullins has won 9-10 and Facile Vega became the Future Champion here at Christmas to make it six in a row.
I asked Joseph O’Brien to bring big Willie down a peg or two yesterday but Banbridge now clearly needs a longer trip. Can he now step up with a one-time Epsom Derby favourite?
Joseph challenges maestro Mullins here with High Definition, by Galileo and from a line of Group-3 Flat winners but also hurdles form up to 3m 2f.
Ran in the Irish Derby and Doncaster St Leger of 2021 and ‘could be anything’ as they say.
Facile Vega looked short at 1.52 BETDAQ favourite this morning and High Definition too big at 6.8. That’s the time to oppose the favourite.
50-1 TIDE IN DAVY’S LOCKER
⭕ 4.10 Leopardstown Charles Byrnes landed a hat-trick in this (2018-20) but a nine-year-old, All Those Years, is too old to win this race on past records, albeit he’s in the right place in the handicap.
Four-year-olds (Common Practice) don’t win it either. And Willie Mullins (Gaelic Warrior 11st 12lb and Tax For Max)) has missed out for the last nine seasons.
Not a winning favourite in this 2m hurdle in donkeys years, yet such as last year’s 20-1 scorer were not donkeys; he’d won a Grade 2.
The Tide Turns, a Graded-race runner here at a big price, is ridden by last year’s winning jockey, Davy Russell. In the first four behind Vauban (Grade 1) and Teahupoo, and likes a sound surface.
Anna Bunina won 4-7 on Spring and summer ground last year; consequently high in the handicap but claimed off 7lb
BETDAQ value 50 Anna Bunina, 52 The Tide Turns
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.10 Leopardstown (win 12, nap)
BET 3.5pts win LIBERTY DANCE
1.40 Leopardstown (win 12)
BET 4pts win JAMES DU BERLAIS
2.40 Leopardstown (win 20 total)
BET 1pts win and place FARCEUR DU LARGE
3.10 Leopardstown (win 20, win 10)
BET 4pts win VAUBAN
BET 5pts win STATE MAN
3.40 Leopardstown (win 12)
BET 2pts win HIGH DEFINITION
4.10 Leopardstown (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 1pt win and place ANNA BUNINA
BET 1pt win and place THE TIDE TURNS
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