SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s top games from the Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and Serie A all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V BOCHUM
2.30pm We have a top class Saturday around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have quality fixtures from the Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and Serie A to enjoy and it should be a cracking day too. We kick it off in the Bundesliga with the German Champions in action as Bayern Munich host Bochum. Bayern finally broke their run of three draws last weekend with a 4-2 win over Wolfsburg. They scored four incredible goals from low xG figures, and actually conceded an xG of over five times what they created! I have to say Bayern haven’t really fired since the World Cup. Their four xG figures have been 0.79, 1.44, 1.46 and 0.44 which is very unlike them – usually you see very impressive figures of at least 2.5+. Despite Bayern not playing their best football at the moment, the market can’t see past a home win here. Bayern are trading as short as 1.16 at the time of writing, which is surely one of the shortest prices around Europe this weekend! Bochum would have been pleased with their start to the season, but they are still in the relegation battle here and to be honest it’s hard to see past a comfortable home win here.
The big issue for Bochum this season has been their away form. They have only managed three points away from home this season from ten games – which is actually the same as Schalke who have been nailed to the bottom. Although Bochum start the weekend outside the relegation zone, you wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop into it at some stage this season. Most of Bochum’s points have come at home, so it’s hard to see anything bar a Bayern win here. The big question is how many goals can they score, especially considering that they haven’t exactly been creating chances for fun recently. Bochum have been conceding an average xG of over 2.0 this season which always spells trouble when you are away to Bayern! The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.29 – I’m not sure I’m as confident on goals as the market, but I do feel Bayern can keep a clean sheet. Bochum have only been creating an average xG of just over 1.0 this season so Both Teams Not To Score at 1.91 is worth backing to start the day!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayBoc
MONACO V PSG
4pm Next we move to Ligue 1 as Monaco host PSG. This should be a fascinating game, and we have a very open market too. It’s not often you see PSG trading as big as 2.48 in Ligue 1, so I’m sure they will be a popular bet this weekend! Monaco are a top four club in France again, and they have consistently bounced back from selling their best players over the years. It wasn’t always like that, because they have bounced up and down the table. They won the title in 2016/17, and then sat down in 17th in the 2018/19 season which is remarkable – to think they nearly got relegated! This should be a very interesting game because PSG have been leaking goals lately. Of course they have still been getting the job done most times – they start the weekend with a eight point lead at the top of the table – but they haven’t been keeping many clean sheets. Indeed, they dropped points when coming back from the World Cup and the likes of Marseille, Lens and Monaco could have got close but all three dropped points too! The time to take on PSG in Ligue 1 seems to have come and gone – their last two wins over Montpellier and Toulouse were impressive – they finished the Montpellier game with an xG of 4.16!
Messi has been in fantastic form since settling back in after returning from the World Cup, and when you have a player like Messi in good form it’s always going to be tough for any Ligue 1 side! I wouldn’t say that home advantage is a massive thing for Monaco either, they have actually recorded more points away from home this season! They are unbeaten since resuming their season after the World Cup, and that included a 7-1 win here too, but against a side in the relegation zone. Monaco are a very solid side, and they deserve to be sitting in the top four in France but PSG are playing on a different level. As I said above, it’s not often we see PSG trading as big as 2.48 to win a Ligue 1 game and I feel we should take it. Their last two games show they come into the game in good form, and they can continue their winning run here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win PSG to beat Monaco at 2.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MncPsg
RB LEIPZIG V UNION BERLIN
5.30pm We move back to the Bundesliga next as RB Leipzig host Union Berlin. This is a big game for both sides, especially after RB Leipzig dropped points last weekend with a draw against Koln. It wasn’t a great performance and they can’t argue with the result. Union Berlin have put four wins together after a tough spell heading into the World Cup, and they actually got to within one point of Bayern Munich after last weekend. Their xG figures haven’t been too good in their last three wins, indeed they have been over-performing for most of the season to be honest, but you have to give them credit for getting the job done. This is a very interesting game because it will give us an idea where both sides stand. I can see Union Berlin wanting to keep the game as tight as possible, and RB Leipzig will have a tough job breaking them down. Union Berlin might be over-performing in front of goal, but they have been rock solid at the back. Their average xG conceded is only 1.0 this season which is very good – with RB Leipzig creating an average xG of 1.9 this is a good attack v defence battle!
RB Leipzig come into the game trading as the odds on favourites, and it’s hard to argue with that looking at the under-lining numbers. Union Berlin have been getting results, but they can’t keep scoring the same volume of goals from the chances they are creating – eventually probability will kick in! RB Leipzig have been excellent at home this season too – they actually top the home form table, getting four more points than Bayern Munich from the same number of games. You couldn’t say that Union Berlin being away from home is a negative, but I do feel they will approach this game is a very cagey fashion. Under 2.5 goals stands out at 1.84 here in my opinion, I know Leipzig like to play an open game but it’s not like they have been giving away chances for fun. It’s hard to see past a very close game here, but I’m happy to not go mad with the staking – two points feels right.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RblUni
LAZIO V ATALANTA
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish a brilliant Saturday as Lazio host Atalanta. Both sides dropped points last weekend, so this is a huge game looking at the table. With Juventus getting a 15 point deduction, that has really opened up the race for the top four and European spots – and that’s great news for clubs like Lazio and Atalanta. Champions League football would be a huge boost for both clubs, and they started the weekend sitting in fourth and fifth. It’s a very tight race including Roma and AC Milan – and it’s going to be an interesting battle as the season goes on which is good because Napoli are running away with the title. Lazio are currently one point ahead of Atalanta, but Atalanta have been playing marginally better football this season. There really isn’t much in it, but they have been creating a higher volume of chances. Atalanta’s average xG created is 1.6 compared to Lazio at 1.3 – both sides are actually conceding the same average xG at the back which is low at 1.1. We should have a high quality game here, and I would imagine it will be quite cagey too.
We have an open betting heat, with Lazio favourites at 2.5 with home advantage and Atalanta trading 3.1 at the time of writing. The market is leaning towards goals here with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.91 and I’m not sure I agree with that. I can’t see either side being too open, and given how solid both have been at the back I don’t see many chances. It’s not like either side is averaging an xG of over 2.0 this season; however I fully respect the fact that both sides have definitely been over-performing in front of goal this season. For that reason I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes here, but I would have Unders and Over switched around. I would have Under 2.5 goals as favourite, and I’m happy to take the value at 2.06. Under 2.5 goals would have won in both sides last two fixtures, and it has won in the last two Series A meetings between the sides too. I can see another cagey game!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazAta
