PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews SPURS v CHELSEA on Sunday including FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet for the London derby.
TOTTENHAM V CHELSEA
1.30pm We only have one Premier League fixture this Sunday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with the Carabao Cup Final at Wembley, but what a huge fixture we have in store! This is a massive game for both sides – Spurs moved into the Top Four last weekend with Newcastle dropping points again, but all the focus is on Graham Potter at Chelsea after they recorded another loss last weekend – this time losing 1-0 at home to Southampton. Given Southampton have been sitting bottom of the table, it was the latest embarrassing defeat for Chelsea.
There’s no doubt that Potter is feeling the pressure now. We all know that the Chelsea ownership is trigger happy, and Potter’s time in charge hasn’t gone well. In the first couple of weeks, we were all questioning whether or not it was an improvement on Thomas Tuchel – and to be honest we were all getting over the shock of sacking a manager like Tuchel too. You have to feel for Chelsea this week because they have been very unlucky – they lost 1-0 to Dortmund in the Champions League and finished the game with an xG of 2.34, and then finished the Southampton loss with an xG of 2.0.
Put those two results on top of drawing with Fulham while creating an xG of over double what they conceded, and also losing away to Fulham while having an xG of 2.74 and only conceding 0.65. They also finished the Liverpool game with a higher xG than they conceded – so all in all they have been playing good football, just not getting results. The problem is football is a results business, and morale can go down quite quickly. There’s only so much time a manager can keep saying “we are playing well” for example.
Spurs have had an up-and-down season, but they haven’t been as poor as Chelsea. They are also 1-0 down in their Champions League fixture after the first leg, losing 1-0 to AC Milan away from home. Most of the average performances from Spurs this season have come away from home, and they have been a lot more comfortable at home. They recorded a much needed win over West Ham last weekend – they definitely needed that after getting hammered 4-1 by Leicester away from home and then the Champions League loss.
Home advantage could be the difference here. We have an open market, but Spurs are the favourites at 2.64. Chelsea are trading 3.0 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. It’s hard to support Chelsea on their current run, but their performances have been top notch. I have had my fingers burnt on them though, at the end of the day they haven’t been converting their chances. I feel the 2.64 is a little short on Spurs given how Chelsea have been playing, but as I said – it’s fully understandable to not trust Chelsea here.
I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here, because Under 2.5 goals catches my eye at 1.85. Chelsea’s recent games have had very little goals, and they just haven’t been firing in front of goal either. I can’t see either manager going into this game to play in an open style, and we could quite easily have a very cagey affair here. Potter must know an embarrassing loss of two goals or more would likely see him gone, and I feel we’ll see a 0-0 score line at half-time. From there we can see a goal, and a winner, but I like Under 2.5 goals at the odds. We had a ding-dong 2-2 between these two in the last meeting, but in all competitions Over 2.5 goals has only won twice from the last eight meetings. I feel we’ll see another cagey London Derby.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotChe
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Tottenham have lost all three of their home Premier League games against Chelsea at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium by an aggregate score of 6-0 – they’d only lost two of their previous 13 at home against the Blues before their move (W6 D5).
● Chelsea are unbeaten in eight Premier League meetings with Spurs (W6 D2), while they’re looking to become just the third team to win four consecutive away league games against Tottenham after Arsenal (4 between 1952-1955) and Manchester United (6 between 2001-2007).
● Following their 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge in August, Tottenham are looking to avoid defeat in both Premier League meetings with Chelsea for the first time since 2015-16 (0-0 home, 2-2 away). Only once have they taken as many as four points from the Blues in a single Premier League season, doing so in 2008-09 (1-0 home, 1-1 away).
● Tottenham have beaten Man City 1-0 and West Ham 2-0 in their last two home league games, having lost four of their previous five at home. Spurs haven’t won three consecutive Premier League home games without conceding since April 2019, in their first three matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
● Chelsea have scored just six goals in their last 11 Premier League games – no team has scored fewer since the start of November (the first game in this run). Indeed, the Blues have netted more than once in just one of their last 14 league games (2-0 vs Bournemouth).
● Chelsea’s Premier League games have seen just 46 goals this season (F23 A23), fewer than any other side. Meanwhile, only Manchester City’s matches (84) have seen more goals scored than Tottenham’s (79 – F44 A35).
● Harry Kane and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg were on the scoresheet in Tottenham’s 2-2 draw at Chelsea in August – the last Spurs player to score home and away league goals against Chelsea in the same season was Gary Lineker in 1990-91.
● Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has scored four goals in two substitute appearances in the Premier League this season, compared to just one goal in his 20 starts. It’s more sub goals than any other player this season, while no Spurs player has ever scored five from the bench in a single Premier League campaign.
● Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling has scored six Premier League goals against Tottenham, including two at White Hart Lane and one at Wembley. He could become the third player to score against Spurs at each of their three home venues in the competition, after Aleksandar Mitrovic and Jamie Vardy.
● Only Kevin De Bruyne (5) has made more assists following a ball carry in the Premier League this season than Tottenham’s Dejan Kulusevski (4).
