FA CUP PREVIEW: The Striker previews the fifth round games between FULHAM v LEEDS and BRISTOL CITY v MANCHESTER CITY both including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FULHAM V LEEDS
7.45pm The FA Cup Fifth Round kicks off on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Tuesday night, and we have some excellent midweek action. We have four fixtures on Tuesday and another four on Wednesday. I’m happy to focus on the pick of the fixtures, and an all Premier League clash between Fulham and Leeds is a great place to start. Even though Fulham are strong favourites at 2.2, this is actually the most open game of Tuesday because there’s no odds on favourite. Leeds will be buzzing coming into this fixture after a huge 1-0 win over Southampton at the weekend – that win was very much needed in the relegation battle, and with Everton and Bournemouth losing it left Leeds just outside the relegation zone – but only by one point! Wolves and West Ham got results ahead of them, so they are still very much under pressure in the relegation battle. Fulham had to settle for a draw in an even game against Wolves, and as I said at the weekend they have been over-performing this season so we’re bound to see them drop points between now and the end of the season. A Cup run would be very welcome for either side though, and despite the FA Cup not being as glamorous as it once was, I would expect strong XI’s from both sides.
Fulham have been conceding a lot of chances this season, but they haven’t been punished. Their average xG conceded in the Premier League is 1.8, but their actual goals conceded works out at only 1.2. That’s quite a big difference, and I wouldn’t be confident backing them at 2.2 here. Leeds have clearly had a lot of issues at the back themselves this season, and they have been struggling away from home too. They have only managed six points away from home in the Premier League, which is the joint-lowest total. That does put me off the Fulham lay, even if I feel the 2.2 is too short. The bet I feel is the best value here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 – both sides like to play an open game, and I can’t see either of them holding back in a Cup game. Leeds aren’t quite conceding an xG as high as Fulham’s, but both sides create enough going forward to see goals here – this should be an entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/fullee
BRISTOL CITY V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm We have quite a few short odds favourites in the Fifth Round because of lower league opposition, but Manchester City are the shortest price of the round at 1.25 to beat Bristol City. Pep Guardiola’s men got back to winning ways at the weekend with a smooth 4-1 win over Bournemouth – it was all over by half-time as they were 3-0 up and they were able to coast through the second half. It will be interesting to see what kind of XI Guardiola names here – City have a lot of important games coming up, especially in the Champions League, and this might be a chance to rotate his squad a little. Bristol City are sitting in mid-table in the Championship, they are too far away from the playoffs to get close and also too far away from the relegation zone to be worried. A classic mid-table situation where sides have nothing to play for – if they (as expected!) crash out of the Cup here. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here, and anything bar a City win would be a big shock. I feel it’s a case of how many goals City will score rather than will they win. We could easily see some market movement in the handicap and goal markets when we get the team news, so keep an eye on that from a trading point of view.
I’m definitely keeping stakes low in this one given I’d like to see the teams before having a very strong opinion. Bristol City concede marginally more chances than they create in the Championship – which is pretty reflective of their place in the table. City’s average xG is 2.4 in the Premier League this season which is clearly very impressive and with Bristol City conceding a few chances in the Championship, I feel City can cover the handicap here. The 1.5 goal handicap is a tempting bet at 1.54, but I’m going to take a chance and go for City -2.5 goals at the more attractive price of 2.31. The good thing about City having such a strong squad is if they rotate player you still have £50 million players coming in, and they want to push for a place in the main starting XI too. An early goal for City should see the floodgates open, and they can cover the handicap easily – but I am keen to keep stakes small.
The Striker Says:
One point win Manchester City -2.5 goals to beat Bristol City at 2.31 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/brimci
