DAQMAN 17-12 UP ON PRICEWISE: Daqman is 199 points clear of Pricewise with a 17-12 winners lead over his arch-rival in value play this season. Today they clash at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury, with the headlines:
MCTIGUE MUST WIN BATTLE
DOUBLE BID THE BOLD PLAN
GEMIRANDE ‘GOLD’ GAMBLE
CHELTENHAM: SEE HOW THEY WON: Look out next week as Daqman continues his Cheltenham countdown with a race-by-race, day-by-day check on the stats and facts in See How They Won.
MCTIGUE MUST WIN ‘BATTLE’
⭕ 1.50 Kelso (Morebattle Handicap Hurdle) The temptation of a £100,000 ‘battle’ with a £100,000 ‘more’ for the double at Cheltenham has a big field lining up for this.
The County Hurdle would be the bonus second leg for Colonel Mustard, Deere Mark, Lebowski, Luttrell Lad and Nayati, but still with a choice to be made between that one and the Supreme Novices for Teddy Blue and the Martin Pipe for Wajaaha. Teddy Blue is his stable’s first ever runner at Kelso.
⭕ Mctigue, like Benson, is engaged in the Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe. He can choose between those same handicaps, or both the Boodles Juvenile (ex Fred Winter) and the Triumph Hurdle.
Even if he wins today, he looks short of Boodles and Triumph Hurdle form; and, if he doesn’t win today, he is unlikely to get into the handicaps.
So it seems all or nothing for trainer Emmet Mullins this afternoon. He did the bonus double two years ago with an eight-year-old, The Shunter, but Mctigue is only four.
With Jim Bolger on the Flat, he’s a Grade-2 winner over hurdles at Auteuil after breaking his NH maiden at Sedgefield. He’s been beaten in two better races since but there’s no doubt today was the target.
2 Tritonic is better than his recent results but needs a fast-run race. The likes of Teddy Blue should see to that, and the handicapper may regret dropping him another 4lb to 10lb below his best.
Colonel Mustard has won only his maiden; always a bad sign, albeit he was third in the County Hurdle last season.
Nayati gave 23lb and a beating to Collngham at Musselburgh in January (soft) but the tables were turned on the same course in the Scottish County Hurdle last month (good to soft).
3 Deer Marke looks progressive on today’s ground, while Collingham (a drifter today) is without a Cheltenham bonus race to aim at.
4 L’Eau Du Sud The ex-French grey has excelled on very soft ground so far.
Watch the first race and listen for news of the going. Then check the BETDAQ market.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.4 Mctigue, 9.9 Deere Mark, 10.5 L’Eau Du Sud, 16 Tritonic.
DOUBLE BID THE BOLD PLAN
⭕ 2.10 Newbury Bold Plan has been prepared with this race in mind. He won it last year; has dropped back down the handicap; and is a value 7.0 on BETDAQ.
⭕ 2.25 Kelso Carcaci Castle is on a hat-trick, after winning on both good and heavy ground. BETDAQ 8.0 for more big value.
He looks out of the ordinary and the second and third behind him here at Kelso the last day seem to prove it; both won well next time out.
⭕ 3.15 Doncaster Here’s another last year’s winner, Undersupervision, who is targeting a repeat.
He’s back to that winning mark but unseated behind Coopers Cross in the big race here in January, when making no impression. BETDAQ 2.62 Coopers Cross.
GEMIRANDE ‘GOLD’ GAMBLE
⭕ 2.45 Newbury (Greatwood Gold Cup) Very disappointing; I could usually rely on a field of 10 or 14, with four from Paul Nicholls supplying winners at 18-1, 11-1, 7-1 and 7-2 in eight seasons.
They were rated at the ’off’: 143, 145, 147 and 149, so his runner today, Espoir De Guye, making his debut for the stable, gets in nicely on 144, receiving a stone from the top-weights.
But one of them, Paint The Dream, won it last year, carrying 11st 11lb for his 147 rating. Yet today 158 puts him, alongside Zanza, on 12st.
Both have to try to win something like this, because they would be set a similar burden in, say, the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.
Espoir De Guye (a big drifter this morning) used to win when fresh for Venetia Williams, who herself saddles Gemirande (a big punt this morning), in the frame for seven races in a row.
There is almost a two-stone gap between the good and the very good here but the ratings suggest the race is top heavy.
BETDAQ value 3.75 Gemirande, 4.3 Paint The Dream
DAQMAN’S BETS:
1.50 Kelso (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5.5pts win DEERE MARK
BET 3.25pts win TRITONIC
BET 4.75pts saver to win 20 MCTIGUE
2.10 Newbury (win 30)
BET 5pts win BOLD PLAN
2.25 Kelso (win 50 bull’s-eye nap)
BET 7pts win CARCACI CASTLE
2.45 Newbury (win 20, win 10)
BET 6pts win PAINT THE DREAM
BET 3.5pts win GEMIRANDE
3.15 Doncaster (win 10)
BET 6pts win COOPERS CROSS
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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