FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews EINTRACHT FRANKFURT v BOCHUM and MALLORCA v OSASUNA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EINTRACHT FRANKFURT V BOCHUM
7.30pm The International break finally comes to an end on Friday, and we are back with our usual Friday night football slot on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga. We might not have the most glamorous fixtures to return to club football, but it is nice to be back! We start the evening in the Bundesliga where Eintracht Frankfurt host Bochum. The International break came at a good time for Frankfurt as they had gone six games in all competitions without a win – they crashed out of the Champions League without scoring over the two legs against Napoli, and they have dropped down to sixth in the Bundesliga. They have had a reasonably tricky fixture list, they met RB Leipzig and Union Berlin away from home, but they should have beaten Stuttgart who are sitting bottom of the table with home advantage. They threw in a poor performance there, only creating an xG of 0.60. Frankfurt would have had a chance to re-group during the International break, and despite some average performances this season they still have a lot to play for. They are six points off the top four, and if they can’t break into that they need to focus on getting a spot in the Europa League.
They face another side in the relegated battle here – Bochum return to action sitting in 14th. They have a four point cushion on the bottom three, but that isn’t nearly enough to be comfortable, especially considering things are so tight in the relegation battle. Stuttgart sit bottom of the table but they are only five points behind Bochum. While the International break came at a good time for Frankfurt, it didn’t for Bochum. They had put two wins together against Koln and RB Leipzig – although they were lucky to beat RB Leipzig because they conceded an xG of 2.09 in their 1-0 win. Bochum have had problems at the back all season – their average xG conceded is a very high 2.1, and that’s a major issue when you are only creating an average xG of 1.1 going forward. Frankfurt will be expected to win here, but it’s hard to argue that they should be massively shorter than 1.58. I feel we’ll get an open game here – Frankfurt are more solid at the back than Bochum, but they aren’t even close to reliable and have been conceding goals lately. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.74 and that looks the value pick in what should be a reasonably end-to-end game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EinBoc
MALLORCA V OSASUNA
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish Friday night football, and we have an interesting market here as Mallorca host Osasuna. This is a classic mid-table La Liga clash as both sides sit between 9th and 11th with only two points between them. Mallorca are only six points away from the bottom three sitting up in 11th which really highlights how open and competitive the relegation race is in La Liga this season. Six points isn’t a huge cushion, but there are enough sides between themselves and the bottom three that they shouldn’t have to worry about relegation bar a terrible run of six or seven losses in a row. Home form has been important for Mallorca this season; they haven’t been poor away from home but they do have close to double the points when playing at home. Most of their good performances have come with home advantage too, and that explains why they are trading as the clear favourites at 2.24 here. I have to say I was surprised to see them trading that short when I clicked into the market – I expected a more open betting heat. Osasuna have actually been a little bit better on the road this season compared to at home. For example, on the home form table alone Osasuna sit in 16th just one point ahead of the bottom three. Both sides went into the International break off a run without a win; four games for Mallorca and three for Osasuna.
There’s no getting away from the fact that Mallorca have been playing very well at home this season. That’s why I’m happy to stay away from the Mallorca lay at 2.24, even though I expected a more open market. They were unlucky in their last two home games, drawing 1-1 with Real Sociedad despite creating an xG of over double what they conceded and then they created a higher xG figure against Elche when losing 1-0. They even managed a 1-0 win over Real Madrid here, although they was very lucky because they conceded an xG of 1.81 and only created 0.26 – but you always have to grind out a game against Real Madrid! On average, Osasuna have been conceding more chances than they have been creating this season and they are your classic mid-table side. Always get enough points to avoid a relegation battle, never good enough to achieve anything. I feel we’ll see a very cagey game here between two evenly matched sides. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.41 so the market is expecting a cagey game too! I’m going to take a chance on Under 1.5 goals market instead however as that is trading 2.25. It’s hard to see many chances here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 1.5 goals at 2.25 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MalOsa
