THE LINCOLN WINNER IN CODE! There’s plenty of racing to talk about tomorrow so today Daqman previews the Lincoln Handicap field with assessments for the stats, stable form and stalls positions with ABC code letters.
REASONS TO BACK OUTSIDERS: Today’s best bets at Lingfield, Southwell and Wetherby include BETDAQ value 11.0 and 23.0 outsiders, with good reason says Daqman.
LINCOLN HANDICAP ABC
⭕ 3.35 Doncaster tomorrow (Lincoln Handicap) Going: SOFT, heavy in places (showers).
A: STATS: AGE (since 2010): four (6 wins), five (3) and six (3). Only two aged seven and older since 1965.
B: RATINGS: 98, 104, 95, 90, 102, 100, 100, 100, 99, 100, 100, 102 (so 98-102 nine out of 12). Weight carried: 9st 1lb to 9st 4lb (10 out of 12).
C: DISTANCE WINNERS: 80% strike rate.
D: TRAINERS (Lincoln Handicap): William Haggas 4, Charlie Appleby 2, John Quinn 2.
E: Early-Bird trainers and stables in form (see Daqman Tuesday): Charlie Appleby, Andrew Balding, Richard Fahey, William Haggas, Richard Hannon, John and Thady Gosden, George Boughey.
S: STALLS : Double-figure draw best except on soft ground. Winners by stall (since 2010): 1*, 16, 12, 3*, 3*, 15, 22*, 20, 10*, 17, 10, 4* (*soft ground)
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites: one out of 10 (11 of last 19 unplaced.
AL MUBHIR (ABCDE) Frankel colt, winner of a class 3 at Haydock on heavy in the autumn; ‘has a big future,’ according to trainer William Haggas, who would complete a Lincoln double after taking the Irish Lincolnshire last Saturday. He won the Doncaster Lincoln with Addeybb (2018).
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND (ABCD) Winner three times on soft at 1m, including Thirsk Summer Cup. Second in big fields in autumn class-2 handicaps at Doncaster to Atrium (soft) and York. Stable won the Lincoln in 2006 and 2013.
EILEAN DUBH (ABCS) Three wins out of four on sound surface (two at York including John Smith’s). Weakened (9th) in recent Lincoln Trial. Has the one stall.
ATRIUM (ABC) Landed late-season double in 2022 (both class 2 over a mile) at Newbury and Doncaster (soft), with Empirestateofmind second. Shows nothing at home but surprises on course.
AWAAL (ABC) Just four runs. Gelded since mile winner at Redcar on heavy in the autumn; half-brother to Group-2 winner Breton Rock.
CROUPIER (ABC) Stablemate of Awaal. Two out of three in the autumn (Class-3 winner on turf and AW), raised 8lb.
JIMI HENDRIX (ABC) Won his maiden at Doncaster on the soft. Haydock and Newmarket winner over a mile last summer but lost form and gelded after 15th of 28 in the Cambridgeshire.
WANEES (ABC) Esher Cup win last April completed a hat-trick. Gelded after Britannia 6th and won class-2 mile at Haydock (good to soft), beating Montassib in receipt of 8lb; Encourageable 6th.
MONTASSIB (ABDE) Stablemate of Al Mubhir. Goodwood 7f winner and 4th 7f Bunbury Cup. See Wanees.
BARADAR (ABES) Placed in the 2020 Futurity at Doncaster (1m heavy) but changed trainers twice and not win again until Doncaster class 2 (7f heavy) in November. Drawn 4.
WITCH HUNTER (ABE) 7f AW winner; claimed off. Clear with the winner, second class-2 (7f) Lingfield in February.
GREATGADIAN (AS) AW double (1m 2f) last Spring; placed twice at Ascot (class 2; 1m on sound surfaces). Drawn 6.
ENCOURAGEABLE (ACS) Thirsk (1m, class 3) winner on soft. See Wanees. Drawn 3.
MAJESTIC (ACE) Pontefract class-4 winner in August improved to win the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket (1m 1f good) in September. Stable won the Lincoln last year.
TASHIZOU (A) Won only his maiden – always a bad sign – and moved from Joseph O’Brien to Roger Fell. Will carry 2lb less than when 5th of 14 in Leopardstown handicap (soft) in the autumn.
YANIFER (AC) Good form at 7f, winning four out of six in class 4 and 5, including at Doncaster, one of them on the soft; that cost him 21lb rise. Modest 8th in the Lincoln trial on AW three weeks back.
HELM ROCK (AS) Won five races, mostly around a mile, improving two grades in the autumn; another step up needed now. Drawn 2.
* Bopedro (C), Migration (C), Revich (BCS drawn 5), Boardman (BC) are aged 7; Safe Voyage (BC) 10.
WHO WINS IN A CANTER..
IF YOU CAN’T BEAT ‘EM.. I put up two against the favourite in the bumper at Taunton yesterday, assuming they could beat one bred for stamina.
They finished second and third, no match for that favourite, Jonjo O’Neill’s Johnnywho, who went clear in a canter.
He joins the Fortune Cookies list, which will be looking for future NH stars at the big three – Aintree, Fairyhouse and Sandown – meetings this Spring.
BAG THIS CHANNON SHOT
⭕ 1.50 Lingfield Jack Channon, who took over from famous-footballer father, Mick, trainer of the Lincoln winner last year, has scored six times already and was 2-2 on Monday.
His Lingfield CD winner Kitbag has been dropped 18lb since some of last year’s efforts at a higher level.
He was in front soon enough the last day at Wolverhampton and was run out of it in the final stages, giving 13lb to the winner. Yet the handicapper has dropped him again, 2lb. BETDAQ 2.58 this morning.
⭕ 4.20 Southwell This short 5f seems to suit Khabib, a winner here at this level and second twice in class 3, just touched off each time. One for the money this morning and new favourite as I write.
Jack Channon again could have a live outsider in Wonderful World, gelded since running in higher grades on tracks for the equine elite at Goodwood, Newbury and Newmarket.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.3 Khabib, 23.0 Wonderful World
FEIVEL CAN DO A FAVOUR
⭕ 3.55 Wetherby Impressive winner here last month after changing stables, Feivel stepped up to class 3 at Sandown, and strongly challenged Ben Pauling’s Mucho Mas to finish six lengths clear of the rest.
That gave Mucho Mas two wins and two seconds over fences and the trainer fancies his chances in a race at Aintree. Feivel napped at BETDAQ 2.19.
⭕ 4.35 Lingfield The Defiant was completing a hat-trick when landing a gamble in this race last year, showing a propensity for taking races in quick succession.
The Defiant had no chance raised three grades to a class 2 here six days back, but that could have set him up for a crack at this repeat. BETDAQ 11.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Lingfield (win 12)
BET 7.5pts win KITBAG
3.55 Wetherby (win 12 nap)
BET 11pts win FEIVEL
4.20 Southwell (win 25 total, win 10)
BET 1pt win and place WONDERFUL WORLD
BET 3pts win KHABIB
4.35 Lingfield (win 20)
BET 2pts win and place THE DEFIANT
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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