TUESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Tuesday’s four Premier League games including CHELSEA v LIVERPOOL all with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOURNEMOUTH V BRIGHTON
7.45pm We have midweek Premier League action to enjoy on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have four fixtures on Tuesday night followed by another two on Wednesday. Chelsea v Liverpool later will no doubt take all the headlines after Graham Potter was sacked on Sunday evening, but we kick the action off with Bournemouth hosting Brighton. These two sides played incredible football at the weekend, but only one of them came away with a win. That was Bournemouth, who recorded another massive three points for a further boost in the relegation fight. They put in their best performance of the season at home to Fulham, finishing the game with an xG of 3.11. I know xG got a lot of flak over the weekend after the Graham Potter comment on the Aston Villa goal, but it is a fantastic metric to rate chances and what sides created – it gives you a good picture of who played the better football. Not everyone likes it, and possibly Potter shouldn’t have even mentioned it considering most football fans will say “but it was a goal” the reality is goals do win games, but over time the probability of xG will be reflected in each teams points tally.
It’s a good example in the 3-3 draw between Brighton and Brentford at the weekend too. A very entertaining game, but Brighton absolutely bossed most of the game. The xG figures finished 4.47 to 1.50. Given how competitive the Premier League is these days, we don’t usually see a figure as high as 4.47. Brighton were unlucky not to win, and they come into this game playing excellent football. This should be a great game to enjoy if both sides can repeat their performances from the weekend. Bournemouth sit in 16th, one point away from the relegation zone but with two wins from three games they are heading in the right direction. The 1.61 on Brighton looks the correct price in my opinion, I don’t see any value there so I’m going to stay away from the match odds market. With both sides creating so much at the weekend, Over 2.5 goals looks a cracking bet here at 1.86. I can’t see either of them sitting back, and we could easily see five or more goals. At 1.86 on Over 2.5 goals, I’m happy we’re getting enough value to have a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouBri
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Bournemouth have won their last four home league games against Brighton, including all three in the Premier League. Overall, they’re unbeaten in six at home against the Seagulls since a 2-0 loss in October 2007.
● Brighton have won two of their last three league games against Bournemouth (L1), as many as they had in their previous 14 (D5 L7). They’re looking to complete their first league double over the Cherries since the 2007-08 League One campaign.
● Brighton have lost two of their four Premier League games against promoted sides this season (W1 D1), more than they had in their previous 15 such matches (W7 D7). They lost their last such game against Fulham, last losing consecutively against promoted sides in April 2019 (3 in a row).
● Bournemouth have won just one of their last 13 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (D3 L9), though that victory was at home to Brighton on a Tuesday in January 2020 (3-1). The Cherries have failed to score in all four such games this season (D1 L3).
● Brighton have won their last two midweek Premier League games, beating Everton 4-1 in January and Crystal Palace 1-0 last month. They’d only won two of their previous 23 Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday games between December 2019 and October 2022 (D10 L11).
● Brighton are unbeaten in their last six Premier League away games (W3 D3) since a 3-1 loss at Man City in October – it’s the longest current unbeaten run on the road in the competition. The Seagulls have only failed to score in one of their last 14 Premier League away games, but they’ve also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10.
● Bournemouth have won their last two Premier League home games, as many as in their previous 11 at Vitality Stadium (D4 L5). They’ve not won three in a row at home in the top-flight since February 2018.
● Bournemouth have faced more shots than any other Premier League side this season (467), while their average of facing 5.3 shots on target per game is their highest in a single top-flight campaign. Meanwhile, last time out against Brentford, Brighton registered their most ever shots (33) and shots on target (15) in a single Premier League match.
● Brighton’s Solly March has scored four goals in his last five away Premier League appearances – he’d only scored two goals in his first 79 away top-flight games, although one of those was at Bournemouth in September 2017.
● Kaoru Mitoma has been directly involved in 10 goals in his last 14 league appearances, scoring seven and assisting three. He’s either scored (2) or assisted (2) a goal in his last four Premier League games, with no Brighton player ever registering a goal involvement in five in a row in the competition before.
LEEDS V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
7.45pm As I said above, Chelsea v Liverpool will take all the headlines tonight, but we have a massive relegation battle as Leeds host Nottingham Forest. Both sides start the night sitting just outside the bottom three – Leeds have the same amount of points as Everton in the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest are just one point ahead. Brendan Rodgers got sacked by Leicester after the weekend too; so we could easily see a “new manager bounce” from them leaving one of these in the bottom three with a loss here. A lot on the line, and Leeds will be happy to have home advantage. The main reason these sides are where they are in the table is their away form. Leeds have only managed nine points away at season, while Nottingham Forest have only managed six which is the joint-lowest return in Premier League this season. Leeds actually had the joint-lowest return with Forest until recently when they beat Wolves 4-2 away from home prior to the International break. They were hammered last weekend by Arsenal, but I wouldn’t read too much into that; Arsenal are having a fantastic season and there was just a gulf in class between the sides. Forest recorded to some massive wins after the World Cup to give themselves a decent chance of staying up, but they have now put together seven games without a win.
Forest’s last win actually came against Leeds when they had home advantage at the start of February. That was a reasonably dull game – both sides recorded xG figures of under 1.0 but it was Leeds who created the better chances and could argue they were unlucky to lose. Both sides are obviously having difficult seasons, and we should have a very close game here. I’m going to keep stakes very small because I feel Leeds are too short at 1.86. I just expect a closer game than those odds suggest based on how the sides have played this season. However, I am obviously very worried about the Forest record away from home – that’s why I am keeping stakes to one point. I still feel we are getting value on the 1.86 lay because that is a very short price between two very similar sides.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leeds to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeNot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leeds have drawn their last three home league games against Nottingham Forest, while this is the first time they’re hosting them in a Premier League game since a 3-1 win in April 1999.
● Following their 1-0 win at the City Ground in February, Nottingham Forest are looking to complete their first league double over Leeds since 2013-14 in the Championship, and first in the top-flight since 1995-96.
● Leeds have already lost at home against promoted side Fulham in the Premier League this season – only twice have they lost to two promoted sides at Elland Road in a single Premier League campaign, doing so in 2000-01 (Man City and Ipswich) and 1995-96 (Middlesbrough and Bolton).
● Leeds won six of their first seven midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (L1) following their return to the division in 2020, scoring 19 goals and conceding five. Since then, they’re winless in 10 such matches (D4 L6), scoring nine goals and conceding 32.
● Nottingham Forest have the joint-fewest away points (6) and the fewest away goals (4) in the Premier League this season. They’ve lost their last three on the road, last losing more consecutively in the top-flight between November and January in 1998-99 (5).
● Leeds conceded 54 Premier League goals in 2020-21, 79 in 2021-22, and 48 so far this season. They last conceded 50+ in three consecutive top-flight campaigns (without suffering relegation in between) between 1976-77 and 1979-80 (a run of four).
● Since beating Leeds 1-0 in February, Nottingham Forest are winless in their last seven Premier League games (D3 L4), the longest current run in the competition. They had been unbeaten in five league games before this run (W3 D2).
● Leeds have picked up four points in their first two home Premier League games under Javier Gracia (W1 D1), only one fewer than they’d won in their previous seven at Elland Road (5 – W1 D2 L4). The last Whites manager to remain unbeaten in his first three home top-flight games in charge was Allan Clarke in 1980.
● Jack Harrison has been involved in each of Leeds United’s last four Premier League goals at Elland Road (1 goal, 3 assists) and has assisted in his last two home appearances. Only four players have assisted in three consecutive home Premier League appearances for Leeds, with Raphinha the most recent player to do so in May 2021.
● Nottingham Forest midfielder Jonjo Shelvey has scored four goals in six league appearances against Leeds United, the most he’s netted against an opponent in his league career. All four goals have come at Elland Road, including the winner for Newcastle last season in a 1-0 win.
LEICESTER V ASTON VILLA
7.45pm We finish the 7.45pm games with Leicester hosting Aston Villa. All eyes will be on how Leicester perform here after the sacking of Brendan Rodgers at the weekend. Aston Villa were also involved in a game that led to a sacking as well – they beat Chelsea 2-0 away from home, and Graham Potter got his marching orders on Sunday evening. Leicester have been absolutely woeful this season and they start this game in the relegation zone. On paper, their squad is too good to be in a relegation battle and let’s not forget that it wasn’t so long ago that they were battling for a Top Four spot under Rodgers. There were some signs that he had lost the dressing room after a very slow start to the season, players were arguing on the pitch after conceding sloppy goals, blaming each other. They lacked a togetherness of a solid dressing room atmosphere but Rodgers stayed there nevertheless. They went on a decent run before the World Cup, got out of the bottom three and in hindsight they lost all that good momentum when the World Cup came around. Things might have been different for Rodgers without the winter World Cup!
It will be very interesting to see what kind of reaction we get from the players here. We’ll know if Rodgers lost the dressing room if we see a huge boost in performance here. Remember when Rafa Benitez got sacked from Everton; it was clear that wasn’t the managers fault because their xG figures didn’t change afterwards. In hindsight, they are still in the relegation battle too, but Dyche has got come in and we’ve saw marked improvement. All eyes on Leicester from that point of view, but I can’t have them as favourites here at 2.6. I just feel Aston Villa should be a little shorter than 2.92 and Leicester a little bigger than 2.6. From a value point of view I’m happy to lay Leicester, but given the manager situation I’m going to keep stakes small here, with one point the best option.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Aston Villa at 2.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiAst
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leicester are looking to complete just their third Premier League double over Aston Villa, previously doing so in 1996-97 and 2019-20.
● Aston Villa have won just two of their 13 Premier League away games against Leicester City (D5 L6), winning 5-0 in January 2004 and 1-0 in October 2020.
● Leicester have failed to score in their last two Premier League home games against Aston Villa – only against Man Utd (2000-2002) and Man City (2020-2021) have they failed to score in three consecutive home games in the competition.
● Aston Villa haven’t won any of their last five midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (D2 L3) since a 3-0 win at Leeds in March 2022.
● Leicester have lost five of their last seven Premier League home games (W1 D1), more than they had in their previous 19 at the King Power Stadium (W10 D5 L4).
● Leicester have conceded at least once in each of their last 13 Premier League games, the longest current run without a clean sheet in the competition this season. Meanwhile, Aston Villa are on the longest current run of Premier League games without failing to score (15).
● Leicester have dropped a league-high 22 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, including a 2-1 loss to Crystal Palace having opened the scoring at the weekend. Only in their last relegation campaign of 2003-04 have the Foxes dropped more in a single season in the competition (28).
● Since Unai Emery’s first game in charge at Aston Villa, only Arsenal (12) and Manchester City (10) have won more Premier League games than the Villans (9). Their nine wins in 15 games under the Spaniard is as many as they managed in their previous 34 matches in the league beforehand.
● With seven goals and four assists in 10 appearances, Leicester striker Kelechi Iheanacho has been directly involved in more goals against Aston Villa in all competitions than he has against any other side in English football.
● Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has lost his last three Premier League games against Leicester – he’s only ever lost more consecutive league games as a manager against Barcelona (twice, one run of five defeats & one of four defeats), Real Madrid (five) and Sevilla (six).
CHELSEA V LIVERPOOL
8pm We finish the evening with the highlight of the midweek fixtures as Chelsea host Liverpool. Both clubs are having woeful seasons – Chelsea have been through two managers now after sacking Graham Potter at the weekend. As I said a few weeks ago, the media were pushing the idea that if Potter didn’t win against Leeds and Dortmund he would be sacked – even if you win those games you’re never in a good place if the owners are thinking that way. Alas, a draw against Everton before the International break and a loss to Aston Villa was the end. In fairness to Potter, Chelsea played well twice – their xG figures were 2.18 and 2.49. Potter mentioned xG for the second Aston Villa goal to the press afterwards; probably a bad move because he had to deal with the whole “it was a goal” crowd” and that didn’t help his cause. It will be interesting to see how Chelsea perform here – their xG figures under Potter were very good, they were heading in the right direction just not getting the results they deserved. Jurgen Klopp reacted to the sackings of Potter and Rodgers to say something along the lines of “I’m still here” – there is a very slim chance of Klopp leaving Liverpool, but they are having a woeful season. To put it into context, they have less points than Manchester United did at this stage last season under Ralf Rangnick – missing out on the Top Four and Champions League football would be a massive blow.
How this game plays out will be fascinating. Liverpool have been so poor at the back this season, you would have fancied Chelsea to win here given the volume of chances they were creating. Potter getting sacked does change things – I don’t think the players had an issue with him considering the performance level. Chelsea have conceded a lot of sloppy goals this season, under both managers, and perhaps the best angle here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.87 rather than anything in the match odds market. We have an open betting heat, with Chelsea favourites as you’d expect – most of Liverpool’s major issues have come away from home, so this is a pretty good chance for Chelsea to record a morale boosting win but I’m happy to stay in the goals market. Over 2.5 goals at 1.87 looks cracking value and it’s a confident bet to finish the evening.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheLiv
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Each of the last five meetings between Chelsea and Liverpool in all competitions have been draws – the Reds have never drawn six in a row against an opponent before, while, as a top-flight side, Chelsea last did so against Burnley between August 1954 and February 1956.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last four Premier League away games against Chelsea (W2 D2) – they’ve never gone five league visits to Stamford Bridge without defeat before.
● Each of Chelsea’s last three meetings with Liverpool in all competitions have finished 0-0. Only two previous fixtures between two top-flight clubs have finished goalless in four consecutive meetings – Everton against Liverpool (1974-1975) and Arsenal against QPR (1992-1994).
● Chelsea start this game today in 11th place in the Premier League table. With this their 29th match of the season, it’s the latest into a campaign they’ve played a league match while in the bottom half of the table since their penultimate fixture of 1995-96 (11th place – 1-1 vs Spurs).
● Chelsea have won just three of their last 13 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (D6 L4), losing both such games so far in 2023. They’ve not lost three in a row within the same season since May 2012 under Roberto Di Matteo, the third game of which was against Liverpool.
● Liverpool have won 13 of their last 14 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games, including each of the last nine in a row since a 1-0 loss to Leicester in December 2021.
● Chelsea have failed to score in five Premier League home games this season, with four of those coming since the turn of the year. Only in 1994-95 and 2020-21 (both 6) have the Blues failed to score in more different games in a season at Stamford Bridge in the competition.
● Liverpool have lost five of their 11 Premier League games so far in 2023 (W4 D2), one more than they did in the whole of 2022 (W24 D7 L4). They’ve lost eight Premier League away games this season (as many is their three previous campaigns combined), last losing more on the road in 2011-12 (10).
● Chelsea have scored just 29 goals from 355 shots in the Premier League this season, with their shot conversion rate of 8.2% their lowest on record in a single campaign in the division (since 1997-98).
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored four goals in 11 Premier League games against Chelsea – the only player to score more times against the Blues after having previously played for them in the competition is Kevin De Bruyne (5). Salah was also the last former Chelsea player to score against them at Stamford Bridge in the league, doing so in January 2022.
