SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s eight games starting with MANCHESTER UNITED v EVERTON all with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V EVERTON
12.30pm The Premier League fixtures keep coming thick and fast on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! After a busy midweek fixture list, we have a bumper eight fixtures to enjoy on Saturday! We kick off the day with Manchester United hosting Everton. United were in action midweek on Wednesday night against Brentford, and they are going to have an exceptionally busy fixture list as they are still in the FA Cup and the Europa League too. Erik ten Hag has said he wants to win every competition, but United don’t exactly have a very deep squad and we could easily see the players burnout. That’s something to watch closely. This should be an interesting game though, as Sean Dyche has Everton playing well since taking over. They managed to pick up a draw on Monday night against Spurs with an absolutely cracking goal it has to be said, and at the moment it’s hard to see them going down. They are still heavily involved in the relegation battle, but they are heading in the right direction and the same can’t be said for some of the sides around them. Manchester United had to grind out a win midweek here against Brentford, and I can see Everton making life difficult for them again here.
United are currently trading 1.55 at the time of writing, and that feels a little short to me. They might be able to grind out a win again like they did midweek, but I expect Everton to make the game closer than those odds suggest. Everton have actually created a lot under Dyche which has been a surprise to be honest. He usually grinded out results at Burnley with them being solid at the back – since taking over Everton’s xG figures have been 1.91, 0.50 (away to Liverpool), 1.60, 1.88, 1.77, 2.19, 2.05, 1.48 and 0.95. Considering their average xG created for the whole season is 1.3, you can see the improvement that he has brought to the side. I wouldn’t put anyone off the United lay at 1.55 because I do feel it’s short, but the bet I like is Both Teams To Score at 2.0. Everton have definitely shown enough to say that they can score here, and United always give up a few chances too. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Everton come away with a 1-1 draw to be honest.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunEve
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Man Utd have won 38 Premier League games against Everton, the second highest amount of wins one team has against another in the competition (Man Utd 39 vs Tottenham).
● Everton have won just one of their last 29 Premier League away games against Man Utd (D8 L20), a 1-0 victory in December 2013. However, each of their last three visits to Old Trafford have finished level.
● Everton have scored in each of their last nine Premier League games against Man Utd. They’ve never scored in 10 consecutive league games against the Red Devils, while it’s also Man Utd’s longest current run without a clean sheet against a Premier League opponent.
● Manchester United have won both of their meetings with Everton in all competitions this season, winning 2- 1 in the Premier League and 3-1 in the FA Cup. Just twice have they beaten the Toffees three times in the same campaign (1993-94 and 2015-16), with this the 18th season they’ve faced 3+ times.
● After failing to win six consecutive Premier League games in the Saturday 12.30 kick-off slot last season (D2 L4), Manchester United have won all three such games so far this term, most recently beating Manchester City 2-1 in January.
● Everton have picked up 12 points in their nine Premier League matches under manager Sean Dyche (W3 D3 L3), seven more than they won in their final 12 Premier League games under Frank Lampard (5 – W1 D2 L9).
● Everton have won just two of their last 31 Premier League away games (D9 L20), picking up 2-1 wins at Leicester (May 2022) and Southampton (October 2022). The Toffees have also kept just two clean sheets in this run, goalless draws against Watford (May 2022) and Fulham (October 2022).
● Everton manager Sean Dyche won 2-0 at Old Trafford against Manchester United with Burnley in January 2020. He could become the first English manager to win away against the Red Devils in the Premier League with two different clubs, and the fifth manager overall after Brendan Rodgers, José Mourinho, Martin O’Neill and Rafael Benítez.
● Anthony Martial has been involved in 11 goals in 15 appearances for Manchester United against Everton in all competitions (7 goals, 4 assists), his most goal involvements against any opponent for the Red Devils.
● Among Everton players in the Premier League this season, Alex Iwobi ranks top for possession won in the final third (26), chances created (47) and successful take-ons (41). They are also seasonal highs for Iwobi for possession won in the final third and chances created, only completing more take-ons in two previous campaigns, most recently 2020-21 (45).
ASTON VILLA V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm We have a very busy afternoon in the Premier League this week with six fixtures kicking off at 3pm! The first of which sees Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest. Aston Villa have been on a great run recently under Unai Emery, he has really changed the spirit and improved them since coming in after Steven Gerrard. Unfortunately for Nottingham Forest, it’s probably a bad time to meet Villa! Forest lost a huge game midweek on Tuesday night against Leeds and that puts them back in real danger in the relegation zone. They’ve spent a lot of money, have a massive squad, and it’s fair to say they would be in massive trouble if they went back into the Championship with their wage bill and money spent. The pressure is on, then. After beating Crystal Palace just before the World Cup, and then returning with wins against Southampton, Leicester and Leeds it looked like Forest were going to even avoid a relegation fight – those three clubs were sitting around them after all. Since then though they have gone eight games without a win and although they managed three draws, one against Manchester City no less, they are now back in deep trouble. They start the weekend sitting in 17th just outside the bottom three, but they have the same amount of points as Bournemouth in the relegation zone and they are only four points ahead of Southampton in last.
One of the major issues for Forest this season has been their away form. They have only managed six points away from home all season which puts them bottom of the away form table. They have done well at home of course, but it’s hard to support them away from home. I felt they might be able to grind out a result away to Leeds midweek, but they were totally outplayed again. Leeds finished the game with an xG of over double what they conceded. Villa have won five of their last six games, and they have been playing good football too. They have finished with a higher xG figure in four of those five wins, the only lucky win coming away to Chelsea. Within those five games, they have created their highest xG figure of the season too. As I said above, this seems an ideal time to support Villa – morale must be high in the dressing room and they are just playing good football at the moment. Couple that with how poor Forest have been away from home, and I can only see one outcome here. The 1.68 on Villa is a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Aston Villa to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstNot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa have lost just one of their last 14 league games against Nottingham Forest (W6 D7), going down 2-1 at the City Ground in February 2017 in the Championship.
● Nottingham Forest are winless in six away league games against Aston Villa (D3 L3) since a 2-0 Premier League win in October 1994. Their last visit was a 5-5 draw in the Championship (November 2018).
● In the Premier League, Nottingham Forest have won just one of their 11 meetings with Aston Villa (D5 L5), winning 2-0 at Villa Park in October 1994.
● Each of the last six meetings between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest in all competitions has seen at least one goal scored in the opening 20 minutes. Indeed, 11 of the 23 goals scored in these games has been scored in this time, with 15 coming before half-time.
● Nottingham Forest have failed to win any of their last nine Premier League away games against sides from the Midlands (D2 L7), since beating Coventry City 3-0 in August 1996. They’ve lost their last six in a row, failing to score in each of the last five.
● Aston Villa have won their last two Premier League home games, beating Crystal Palace 1-0 and Bournemouth 3-0. They’ve not won three in a row at Villa Park in the same campaign since August-October 2007, a run of four which included three consecutive clean sheets.
● No side has a lower win rate in Premier League games played on Saturday at 3pm this season than Nottingham Forest, who have won just two of their 13 such matches (15% – D5 L6).
● Aston Villa have scored both a league high total (9) and share (39% – 9/23) of their Premier League home goals in the opening 15 minutes of games this season. They’ve opened the scoring in this timeframe in four of their last five at Villa Park.
● Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has never lost a Premier League home game against a promoted side before (W4 D1), winning the last four in a row by an aggregate score of 12-4. His only failure to win was a 1- 1 draw with Wolves in November 2018.
● Ashley Young scored Aston Villa’s goal against Nottingham Forest in their 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture this season. The last team he scored home and away Premier League goals against in a season were Wigan in 2010-11, while at 37-years-old he’d be the oldest to score in both meetings with a side in a single campaign since Graham Alexander against Hull in 2009-10 (38).
BRENTFORD V NEWCASTLE
3pm We have two sides who were in action on Wednesday night next as Brentford host Newcastle. Brentford didn’t do too badly away to Manchester United at Old Trafford but didn’t create enough to score and had to accept a 1-0 defeat. Newcastle stole the headlines on Wednesday though with a stunning 5-1 win over West Ham. That result has put David Moyes under immense pressure at West Ham, but you could see it coming from a Newcastle point of view. As I said in my preview of that game, everything pointed to a Newcastle win. They have been exceptional this season – their average xG created is 2.0 and their average conceded is 1.1. Those stats aren’t far off what we see at Manchester City – obviously City have an average xG of 2.3 so it’s a little higher, but you can see why Newcastle are sitting in the Top Four. That win on Wednesday was extra important too because it was a game in hand over Spurs, and now they have a three point advantage with another game in hand. They can really claim their spot in the Top Four this month.
Prior to going to Old Trafford, Brentford had only lost once in 16 Premier League games. Quite impressive given who they’ve played in that run too – even losing 1-0 there still gives them an excellent record to be honest. We know that they will be more comfortable with home advantage here too; they always tend to create more at home. We should have a very entertaining game here – both sides like to play attacking football and we could easily see plenty of goals. Newcastle are obviously a very tempting bet at 2.16 given the form that they are in at the moment – they are creating a huge volume of chances and it’s hard to put anyone off backing them. However, I really like Over 2.5 goals at 2.14 which is only two ticks below the Newcastle price. I was really surprised to see this bet trading odds against given the set-up both sides have, and what their xG figures say. You can see Brentford love playing an open game and Newcastle are hardly going to sit back here either. I feel we’re getting so much value at 2.14 I’m happy to have a Max Bet at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreNew
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brentford are yet to register a Premier League victory over Newcastle United in three attempts (D1 L2) and lost 5-1 against the Magpies earlier this season.
● Newcastle have won their last three away league games against Brentford, winning in October 1992, January 2017 and February 2022.
● Brentford are winless in seven league meetings with Newcastle (D1 L6) since a 1-0 victory in January 1948. The Bees have conceded at least twice in each of these seven games (22 goals in total).
● Brentford have conceded 10 goals in their three Premier League meetings with Newcastle, with their average of 3.3 their highest goals conceded per game against an opponent.
● Brentford have lost just once at home in the Premier League this season and are unbeaten in their last 10 at the Gtech Community Stadium (W5 D5) since a 3-0 loss to Arsenal in September.
● Despite sitting in the top half of the table and with only three sides losing fewer league games than Brentford so far this season, the Bees have the joint-lowest win rate in Saturday 3pm games in the Premier League this term (15% – W2 D8 L3).
● Newcastle are unbeaten in all 15 of their Saturday 3pm Premier League games under Eddie Howe (W9 D6), a run which started with a 3-3 draw against Brentford in November 2021. The Magpies have played more such games without losing (8 – W4 D4) than any other side this season.
● Having won four in a row between March-May last season, Brentford manager Thomas Frank has won just one of his eight Premier League meetings with English managers this season (D4 L3), beating Gary O’Neil’s Bournemouth 2-0 in January.
● Only Erling Haaland (12) has scored more Premier League goals on Saturdays this season than Brentford striker Ivan Toney (10).
● Ivan Toney scored Brentford’s goal in their 5-1 defeat to Newcastle in the reverse fixture. The last time a former Newcastle player scored home and away Premier League goals in a single season against the Magpies was 2008-09, with both Abdoulaye Diagne-Faye (Stoke) and Craig Bellamy (West Ham & Man City) doing so.
FULHAM V WEST HAM
3pm It’s a London Derby next as Fulham host West Ham. This game took on added importance after West Ham got battered 5-1 by Newcastle on Wednesday night. News came out on Thursday morning that David Moyes would remain in charge for this game, but it’s a “must win game.” As we saw with Graham Potter at Chelsea, as soon as you see things like that being said you know time is nearly up for the manager. The same was said about Potter for the Leeds and Dortmund games, he won them but he still got sacked. I would be surprised if Moyes was still there at the end of the season, but at the same time West Ham do have a great chance of winning here. On paper Fulham have been having a great season, but their under-lining figures show them to be massively over-performing. They have been conceding a huge volume of chances and getting away with it. Their average xG conceded is a very high 1.9 this season; figures you usually see in the relegation zone to be honest. Their actual goals conceded works out at an average of 1.4, so there’s a 0.5 difference which equals a lot of points. The xG table actually puts them into the relegation zone which is something that they should be worrying about for next season.
As I have said over the last month or so, you’d expect to see Fulham drop down the table as the season goes on. It’s just probability – eventually sides are going to start scoring when you can conceding that many chances. We’ve saw that in recent weeks – Fulham actually conceded an xG of 3.11 when losing 2-1 to Bournemouth – if the result didn’t cause red flags the performance definitely did! Fulham’s performance level does give West Ham a chance here, but the major issue for the Hammers this season has been their away form. They’ve only managed six points away from home all season, which is the joint-lowest return in the Premier League. It’s hard to make the case for West Ham away from home at the moment, really and truly we have two sides that you want to be against here to be honest. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market, and have a small bet on Over 2.5 goals at 2.3. Both sides have been very poor at the back so we could see plenty of chances from mistakes here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulWes
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Fulham have lost four of their last five Premier League games against West Ham United (D1) since beating them 2-1 on New Year’s Day 2014.
● West Ham have won seven of their 12 away Premier League games against Fulham (D2 L3). It’s the most away wins they’ve had against an opponent in the competition.
● No side have won fewer points in Premier League London derbies this season than West Ham (5). The Hammers have lost their last six such away games, which is their joint-longest losing run in London derby matches in their league history.
● Fulham have won three of their 10 Premier League London derby matches this season, and could win four in a single campaign for the very first time. However, no side have lost more such games this term than the Cottagers (6, level with Crystal Palace).
● Having lost just two of their first 10 Premier League games following the resumption of the competition after the World Cup (W6 D2), Fulham have now lost their last three in a row. They last lost four consecutively in April 2021.
● West Ham are winless and without a clean sheet in 11 Premier League away games (D3 L8) since beating Aston Villa 1-0 in August. They last went 12 without a win on the road between December and May in 2014- 15 under Sam Allardyce.
● Fulham have lost their last two matches in all competitions despite having opened the scoring, losing 3-1 against Man Utd in the FA Cup and 2-1 against Bournemouth in the Premier League. They last lost three in a row despite scoring first in January 2019.
● Andreas Pereira has created 58 chances in the Premier League this season, already the fifth highest total for a Fulham player on record in a single campaign (since 2003-04). Following his goal against Bournemouth last time out, he’s looking to score in consecutive top-flight appearances for the first time since February 2017 in LaLiga with Granada.
● West Ham have scored just seven goals in 13 Premier League away games this season, with Lucas Paquetá the only player to net more than once on the road for the Hammers (2). In contrast, West Ham have netted 16 goals in eight away games in European and domestic cups this term.
● Michail Antonio has been involved in five goals in six league appearances against Fulham (4 goals, 1 assist), scoring West Ham’s final goal in their 3-1 victory over the Cottagers in the reverse fixture.
LEICESTER V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm We have a massive clash in the relegation battle here as Leicester host Bournemouth. This is a true relegation six-pointer, and you’d have to call it a must win game for Leicester with home advantage. They have sacked their manager Brendan Rodgers, but lost another huge game midweek on Tuesday night against Aston Villa. Perhaps it was a little unlucky to bump into an in-form Aston Villa side, but the Leicester performance was average at best. We didn’t see a “new manager bounce” after the sacking, which has to be a major worry. You always know when a manager has lost a dressing room when the team produces some class performances after they are gone. Sean Dyche under Everton is a good example of them changing their performances. It’s only been one game of course, but Leicester only managed an xG of 0.85. Maybe it’s the players at fault here, but that’s never a reason given in football these days! Both sides start the weekend sitting in the bottom three, with Leicester two points behind Bournemouth. Even a win for Leicester would still see them in massive trouble to be honest, but this is a game they have to win. Bournemouth winning would be an absolute disaster. Bournemouth lost 2-0 on Tuesday night against Brighton, but they didn’t play that badly. They finished the game with an xG of 1.83, and while they conceded a higher figure if they produced the same level of perform here they would likely get a result against this average Leicester side.
The problem for Bournemouth is they are now away from home, and that has been a problem for them this season. Their last two games came with home advantage and they managed xG figures of 3.11 and 1.83. That 3.11 figure was actually their highest of the season. Away from home however, they’ve only managed eight points all season – that’s not the worst return, that goes to Nottingham Forest as mentioned above – but it is a clear issue here. That being said, Leicester have been woeful at home this season. They’ve only managed 12 points at home this season, they’ve actually recorded more points away from home! I feel we’ll have a very close game here, and the 1.85 looks far too short on Leicester. We know that there isn’t much between the sides, and I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Leicester to beat Bournemouth at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiBou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leicester City have never lost a home Premier League match against Bournemouth in five previous meetings at the King Power Stadium (W2 D3).
● Bournemouth are looking to complete a league double over Leicester for the first time since the 1988-89 campaign, when the teams were in the second tier.
● Bournemouth have won their last two Premier League games against Leicester, despite trailing at half-time both times. No team has ever won three in a row against an opponent when losing at the interval before.
● After a run of nine consecutive wins between February 2021 and October 2022, Leicester have lost their last three Premier League games against promoted sides. They last had a longer run of consecutive defeats between January and August 2001 (4).
● Bournemouth could become the third promoted team to achieve the Premier League double over Leicester after Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest, who both did so in 1994-95 when the Foxes were also new to the division. Indeed, 1994-95 is the only campaign Leicester have lost as many as four Premier League games against promoted sides (3 so far this season).
● Both Leicester (13 games played) and Bournemouth (18) have lost eight Premier League games in Saturday 3pm games this season, with only Southampton (11) losing more in this kick-off slot.
● Bournemouth have lost eight of their last nine Premier League away games, with the exception being a 1-0 win at Wolves in February. That victory was also their only clean sheet in their last 24 on the road in the top- flight (W3 D2 L19 – 61 goals conceded).
● Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has been involved in eight goals in 13 league appearances against Bournemouth (7 goals, 1 assist), with six of these (5 goals, 1 assist) coming in six games at the King Power Stadium.
● Marcus Tavernier has scored in his last two away Premier League appearances for Bournemouth, scoring against Leeds in November and Wolves in February. The only player to score in three consecutive away top-flight appearances for the Cherries is Joshua King in March 2017.
● Between them, Dominic Solanke and Philip Billing have either scored or assisted 10 of Bournemouth’s 12 Premier League away goals this season. The only goals they’ve scored on the road which involved neither of these players were Marcus Tavernier against Leeds in November, and Marcos Senesi at Arsenal last month.
TOTTENHAM V BRIGHTON
3pm We have some very interesting games this afternoon, but Spurs v Brighton is probably the most interesting. Spurs have been going through a lot lately – the Conte outburst to the media after the Southampton draw didn’t leave them with much choice, his time was up. They couldn’t manage to beat Everton on Monday night, and now they are massively on the backfoot in the Top Four race. Brighton are actually only four points behind Spurs now, and they have two games in hand as well! A win here for Brighton would be massive, and would really put the knife in Spurs Top Four hopes. You’d have to give them a pretty good chance of achieving that too because they have been playing some great football lately. They have recorded xG figures of 4.47 and 2.44 in their two games since the International break, and to be fair to them they have been fantastic going forward all season. Their average xG created is 2.0 in the Premier League this season. Compare that to Manchester City which is 2.3. Where Brighton can improve is reducing their average xG conceded which is 1.3 – still a reasonably good figure but the top sides are usually around 1.0. Spurs concede the same amount of chances as Brighton this season, and they also create less.
There’s been a lot of drama at Spurs this season, and it’s hard to make a case for them here. It’s a sign of how the sides are playing that we have such an open market here to be honest, even with Spurs having home advantage. At the time of writing, Spurs are trading 2.7 with Brighton 2.76 – it wouldn’t take much to move Brighton into favourites before kick off! The only positive you would say about Spurs this season is that they have been much better at home – most of their average performances have come on the road, and in general they have been pretty solid at home. They were outplayed by AC Milan in the Champions League here – only created an xG of 0.51 in a game where they had to score. They did beat Brighton earlier in the season, but Brighton actually finished the game with a higher xG figure. I feel we’ll have a close game here, you can see that by the market to be honest, and I like the Spurs lay at 2.7. Having the Brighton win and draw on our side is a very nice position here; they are playing much better football at the moment.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Brighton at 2.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotBri
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following a 1-0 win at the Amex Stadium earlier this season, Tottenham are looking for their second Premier League double over Brighton, doing so previously in 2018-19.
● Having lost five consecutive away league games against Spurs between 1982 and 2020, Brighton won this exact fixture 1-0 last season.
● Brighton have lost two of their last three Premier League away games against London sides (D1), as many as they had in their previous 14 visits to the capital (W4 D8).
● None of Tottenham’s last 24 home league games have been drawn (W17 L7), with Spurs winning the last four in a row. None of the last nine managers to take charge of a Premier League game for Tottenham have lost their first home match in charge (W7 D2), since Clive Allen lost 2-1 against Blackburn in October 2007.
● Brighton have scored more goals in Saturday 3pm games than any other Premier League side this season, netting 28 in their 14 such matches. Meanwhile, Spurs average two goals conceded per game in this kick- off slot this season, shipping 16 goals in eight games.
● Spurs have drawn their last two Premier League matches despite leading in both games, drawing 3-3 at Southampton and 1-1 at Everton. They haven’t gone ahead but failed to win in three consecutive league games since April 2021 (draw with Newcastle, defeat to Man Utd, draw with Everton).
● 15 of Brighton’s last 18 Premier League goals in London have been scored in the second half – the Seagulls have only netted in the first half in three of their last 17 league visits to the capital.
● Spurs have lost three of their last five home Premier League matches in April (W2), including a 1-0 defeat to Brighton last year. They had only lost three of their previous 30 home league matches in April before this run (W20 D7).
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 11 goals in his last 13 Premier League home games. Overall he’s scored 98 home goals in the competition, and could be the first player to reach a century of goals in both home and away games.
● Harry Kane has scored nine goals in 11 appearances for Tottenham against Brighton. The Seagulls could become the ninth team England’s record goal scorer reaches double figures against in his career, after Leicester, Everton, Arsenal, Southampton, West Ham, Burnley, Crystal Palace and Stoke.
WOLVES V CHELSEA
3pm We finish the 3pm fixtures with Wolves hosting Chelsea. Another intriguing fixture this afternoon – if anything it’s a shame we had six games at the same time because there’s a lot of talking points and games you’d like to watch on their own! Wolves have moved away from the relegation zone over the last few weeks, but they are still very much involved. They are only one point away from the bottom three despite a few sides between them and 18th. They will quite fancy getting a result against Chelsea here given what’s going on at Chelsea, however the xG figures Chelsea have been producing lately are very promising. Graham Potter got sacked after losing 2-0 against Aston Villa, and it’s came to light afterwards that some of the Chelsea squad were poking fun behind his back – calling him Harry Potter etc – it shows it’s so hard to come into a big club and be respected when you are taking a huge step up. Similar happened to David Moyes at Manchester United; the bigger players just didn’t respect him enough coming from Everton. Potter seems like a fantastic coach though, and he will be back. In hindsight, he probably would have had more success staying with Brighton!
It was unlucky for him to be sacked because Chelsea were actually creating their best xG figures under him. I can’t believe they are bringing back Frank Lampard; I honestly can’t give one positive for that, even if it’s only until the end of the season. Their last six xG figures in all competitions have been 1.63, 2.47, 1.54, 2.18, 2.49 and 2.55 so Chelsea have been playing well. They should have beaten Aston Villa and Liverpool based on the numbers, although judging by the backlash to Graham Potter’s xG comment the average football fans doesn’t like the use of data as much at teams backroom staff and professional gamblers in the Premier League markets. Wolves have been pretty average this season, as their place in the league shows, and I feel it’s worth backing Chelsea here at 2.04. Results haven’t been going their way but their performances point to a big win very soon. I’m going to keep stakes very limited, because the reality is Chelsea have to start taking their chances and they do lack a striker – but odds against is worth a bet here. I would have had a larger stake but for the Lampard appointment!
The Striker Says:
One point win Chelsea to beat Wolves at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolChe
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Wolves are winless in their last four Premier League games against Chelsea (D3 L1) since beating them 2-1 at Molineux in December 2020.
● Chelsea haven’t won either of their last two league visits to Molineux (D1 L1) since winning 5-2 in September 2019 under Frank Lampard.
● Under Julen Lopetegui, Wolves are unbeaten in their three Premier League matches against opponents from London (W2 D1), recording wins at home to West Ham and Spurs. They hadn’t won any of their previous 11 such matches prior to Lopetegui’s arrival (D3 L8).
● Chelsea have only lost three of their 19 meetings with Wolves in all competitions this century (W12 D4) and will be looking to record a league double over them for the fifth time in this period (2003-04, 2009-10, 2011- 12 and 2019-20 previously).
● This will be the fifth time that Wolves boss Julen Lopetegui has faced Chelsea in his managerial career, with each of the previous four coming in the UEFA Champions League. After winning the first one with FC Porto in September 2015 (2-1), he has failed to win each of the last three without his sides scoring a goal (D1 L2).
● Chelsea have picked up just 16 points from 14 away games in the Premier League this season (W4 D4 L6), their lowest return after 14 road games in a single campaign since 2000-01 (9). The Blues have already lost twice as many away games this season (6) as they did in 2021-22 (3).
● Wolves have won each of their last three Premier League home games against sides starting the day above them in the table (1-0 v West Ham, 3-0 v Liverpool and 1-0 v Spurs). They have never previously won four consecutive home games against opponents above them in the Premier League.
● No Chelsea player has been directly involved in more away goals in the Premier League this season than Enzo Fernández (2 assists), despite the Argentinean midfielder not making his first away appearance until February. Indeed, he’s the only Chelsea player with multiple assists away from home in the competition this term.
● Daniel Podence is Wolves’ top scorer in the Premier League this season, with his six goals in 2022-23 as many as he had scored in his first three campaigns combined (2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22). His six goals this term have won eight points for Wolves, more than any other player for the club.
● Since the start of the 2019-20 season, Kevin De Bruyne (9) is the only visiting player who has been directly involved in more league goals at Molineux than Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling (5 – three goals and two assists).
SOUTHAMPTON V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm We finish a cracking day with Southampton hosting Manchester City. Plenty of sides have been recording wins in the relegation battle lately, Leeds the latest during the week, and with Southampton sitting bottom of the table Manchester City are the last side they’ll want to see! They have managed to stay in touch with a win over Leicester and draws against Manchester United and Spurs, but they still look in a very bad position. They’ll be keeping a close eye on the Leicester v Bournemouth game earlier in the day too. City had a huge game last weekend and things were looking very dodgy as Liverpool took a 1-0 lead, but Guardiola’s men bounced back and ended up hammering Liverpool 4-1. With Arsenal having to play away to Liverpool on Sunday afternoon, this game is a must win game for City to put maximum pressure on Arsenal. They can’t afford to drop points here – granted I said the same when they went above Arsenal and then dropped points away to Nottingham Forest in their next game, also in the relegation battle. Despite being away from home, City come into the game trading as the shortest priced favourites of the weekend.
The market is very confident on an away win here with City trading as short as 1.27 at the time of writing. City have won their last three games 7-0, 6-0 and 4-1, so it’s probably a case of how many goals can they score here rather than will they win. Despite sitting bottom of the table, Southampton haven’t been conceding as many chances as the sides around them. Their average xG conceded is 1.6 this season – high but not like 2.0 like the sides around them. They’ve had massive issues up front, their average xG created is a very low 1.1 and their actual goals scored is only 0.8. They will likely try to put XI men behind the ball here and try to grind out a draw – those tactics will just hand a lot of the ball to City and probably stop Southampton from scoring too. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.77 and while it’s hard to know how many goals City will score, I am confident they can keep a clean sheet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouMci
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Southampton have only won one of their last 13 Premier League matches against Manchester City (D3 L9), a 1-0 home win in July 2020.
● Man City have won four of their last six away Premier League games against Southampton (D1 L1), although they drew 1-1 last season at St Mary’s.
● Southampton won two of their first three Premier League games under Ruben Selles (L1) but are winless in their last four under the Spaniard (D2 L2), failing to score in three of those games.
● Manchester City have won their last four Premier League matches, their longest winning run of the season. They last won five in a row in April and May 2022.
● Southampton kept six clean sheets in their first nine home Premier League games in the 2020-21 campaign but since then the Saints have kept just seven in 43 league games at St Mary’s, with just one of those coming this season, the fewest of any team.
● Manchester City have won their last nine away Premier League matches in the month of April, scoring 23 goals and conceding just four across these wins. Including home games, City have won 15 of their last 17 league games in April (D1 L1), their only defeat in this run coming at home to Leeds in 2021.
● Manchester City have won their last 10 Premier League matches against teams starting the day bottom of the table, a run stretching back to March 2016. They haven’t conceded a goal in a game against a team starting bottom in any of their last 14 such matches – Connor Wickham scored the last such goal for Sunderland in April 2014. Bottom placed sides have played 21 hours and seven minutes of football against City since then without finding the net.
● Kevin De Bruyne registered his 99th Premier League assist in Man City’s 4-1 win over Liverpool. He is looking to become the fifth player to assist 100+ goals, along with Ryan Giggs (162), Cesc Fàbregas (111), Wayne Rooney (103) and Frank Lampard (102). De Bruyne would be the quickest player to reach 100 (237 games), with Fàbregas holding the current record (293 games).
● Since a Danny Ings penalty in December 2020, James Ward-Prowse has scored each of Southampton’s last 16 Premier League penalty and direct free-kick goals combined (8 pens, 8 DFKs). In Premier League history, the only player to have a longer such run for a team was Matt Le Tissier for Saints between 1992 and 1995 (20 in a row).
● Since the Premier League returned after the World Cup in December, only Erling Haaland (12) and Riyad Mahrez (9) have been involved in more Premier League goals for Man City than Jack Grealish (8). Grealish is looking to score in consecutive league appearances for the first time since October 2020, while he last assisted in consecutive games in February 2021, both while playing for Aston Villa.
