PROFITS HIT 299 POINTS WITH SIX WINNING BETS: Sensational Daqman slammed home six winning bets yesterday – two lays, two wins, an each way, and a treble – to take his profit in the last eight days to 299 points.
THREE WINNING NAPS OUT OF FOUR: His best bet, Carlton House (nap, WON 10-11), followed up Glittering Gold (nap, WON 6-5) and Markab (nap, WON 11-4) for three winning naps out of four, and a total of four in the last week.
SIX WINNING DAYS FROM THE LAST EIGHT: He dared to lay Top Offer (unplaced 3-1 favourite), the one-time hot Guineas fancy. His six winning days from the last eight are:
PROFIT 25 points (Thursday): Beaufort Twelve (WON 15-2), Primaeval (WON 5-2), Golan Way (lay, unplaced 11-4 favourite)
PROFIT 155 points (Friday): Amber Silk (WON 13-2), Watheeq (WON 6-1), Figaro (WON 2-1), Michelangelo (nap, WON 4-6).
PROFIT 19 points (Sunday): Golden Shot (WON 43-10 from 9.2), Leitor Mor (lay, 2nd 9-4 favourite) and Crius (lay, unplaced 13-8 favourite)
PROFIT 91 points (Monday): Markab (nap, WON 11-4), Cape Classic (WON 5-2), Artigiano (WON 11-10).
PROFIT 9 points (Wednesday): Glittering Gold (nap, WON 6-5)
PROFIT: 44 points (Thursday): Carlton House (nap, WON 10-11), Opinion Poll (WON 5-4), trebled with Ibtahaj (WON 1-3); plus Stipulate (2nd 14-1), Glenora Gale (lay, 2nd 8-11 favourite) and Top Offer (lay, unplaced 3-1 favourite)
Take the winner out of the Oaks. Unless something spectacular happens tomorrow, it looks a better Classic than the nine-runner ‘bonfire’ Derby this year, and it could well contain a Ouija Board or something of that ilk.
1.40 Epsom (Princess Elizabeth Stakes): Favourites are six out of eight and going for a hat-trick today: the last six winners were all rated 103 to 116, which rules out Boastful (needs soft), Night Lily and Valencha.
The favourite, Lay Time, won first time out last season and may be fitter than Joviality (absent 283 days) who represents Group-winning success over a Group-1 campaigned animal (Barefoot Lady, the Nell Gwyn winner and Coronation Stakes placed).
Joviality put up a fine performance to get within two lengths or so of her elders in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket, won by Timepiece last summer.
Snag is she’s been slow to come to hand this year and John Gosden has set the target as the Windsor Forest at Royal Ascot.
2.15 Epsom: It’s rare for an older horse to beat the four and five year olds (they’ve taken 8 of the last 10) but Resurge managed it last year and he’s back for more, off a 2lb lower mark.
Resurge’s record at Epsom on good or soft ground, is 121210, and he has won elsewhere on a firm surface. He’s 7.6 on BETDAQ as I write, but you’d do well to wait for a bet in running, as he usually drops right out of the back door until coming with a late rattle.
The reverse may be the case with front-runner Pivotman, who will have to get away smartly from the one stall; the 18.5 I see this morning will surely shrink at an early stage of the race.
Pivotman and Stand To Reason have both shown their best form with cut in the ground. Pekan Star (missed York for this) goes well fresh and on a sound surface; 10.0 offers are appealing. Gatewood has a 50% record and his Group-3 Curragh entry suggests he is a worthy favourite here.
The one I like at a price is Cry Fury: a winner first time out, loved the switchback Goodwood, so should like it here; gelded in the close season after disappointing in the Cambridgeshire: a nice 9.2.
2.50 Epsom (Diomed Stakes): Not an outright favourite in sight this century despite a consistently low turnout of around eight runners, though today can manage just six, including the old boy Mac Love, who won it in 2009 but was only fifth last year.
Apart from a good run in the Lockinge a year ago, Worthadd – prefers soft ground – has beaten only rocking horses in Italy and Germany (actually the name is Rock Horse at San Siro last May and I have to accept that the runner-up, Vanjura, is a decent tool). Marcret also prefers plenty of cut in the ground.
Worthadd likes to set the pace but, in a similar tactical race at Salisbury (Group-3) last August, on today’s sort of surface, Side Glance just hung on to beat Dance And Dance (winner on this card last season).
An intriguing, potentially, fast and furious contest, in which a favourite around 11-10 is worth opposing.
3.25 Epsom: Again, favourites have a poor record (1 out of 10), and it pays to follow a course specialist. Could it be Starwatch (21.0 on BETDAQ right now); form figures at Epsom 3111.
He’s up two grades but the wide draw won’t worry a horse who gets behind early. Highland Knight, second last year, seems sure to go well: nice 10.5 offers.
4.05 Epsom (The Oaks): This is an open race, as it stands now, with four or five fillies having the potential from the following assessments.
Anyone pricing up to simplistic true odds, allowing one point for error, could not possibly describe any runner at 5-1 or under as ‘value’.
Stats: The CVs of Kailani and The Fugue fit every requirement of my stats check (see the ABC Oaks guide in Tuesday’s column).
Breeding: Kissed’s line is the new trend: she is related to Derby and Oaks winners. Kailani has two Oaks winners on the dam’s side.
The pedigrees of Vow and The Fugue suggest strong staying ability; Group 1 but not necessarily Classic. Shirocco Star is also bred to stay but Classic success in the family has come at a mile.
The dams of Maybe and Was were sprinters: will that inject vital speed or will it mean they won’t stay? We shall know after the race.
Trials: Vow ran green and still won the Lingfield Oaks Trial; runner-up Colima showed she will love top of the ground and was held up traveling smoothly. But the third filly, Estrela, was only sixth of seven to Coquet in the Height Of Fashion trial at Goodwood.
Kailani won the Pretty Polly by seven lengths, the runner-up having finished second to subsequent Irish 1,000 Guineas winner, Samitar. But the third, Lacily, was way back in the Swettenham Stud Trial.
Shirocco Star was second in the Swettenham, and the third filly home was Starscope, second in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas, with Maybe third and The Fugue (injured in running) fourth.
Kissed won her prep race by a street; the second then beat Was when runner-up in the Blue Wind Stakes to a filly that accounted for Betterbetterbetter in March.
Going: As if that jigsaw isn’t difficult enough, the snag is that most of these trials were run on soft ground, or nearly so. As the colt, Power, showed between Newmarket and The Curragh, from soft to firm, the difference in performance can be enormous.
There is a particular warning from Aidan O’Brien this morning about the going for Kissed: she likes ease in the surface.
Market: Easy to back on BETDAQ as I write this morning are Colima (11-1 with Ladbrokes), drifted like a lonely dog on a raft to 22.0; Betterbetterbetter 36.0 (20-1 with Hills); Shirocco Star 19.5 (12-1 with Betfred); Coquet 28.0 (16-1 with Hills); Was 35.0 (18-1 Hills); Twirl 76.0 (20-1 Ladbrokes).
VERDICT: I think The Fugue, well bred for today, might have gone close in the 1,000 Guineas but for injury during the race. Kailani has breeding and a good trial win behind her, and much better offers at 10.5 on BETDAQ this morning; she is the value.
I liked Colima’s handy easy action for today’s ground but the 15.5 I took doesn’t look so hot now, and the Vow form may have been devalued by Estrela. Result: 1 The Fugue, 2 Kailani, 3 Maybe.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) LAY TIME (1.40 Epsom)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.6pts win CRY FURY, 3.3pts win PEKAN STAR and 2.1pts win (stakes saver) GATEWOOD (2.15 Epsom)
LAY to win 10pts WORTHADD, and BET 4.7pts win SIDE GLANCE and 3.2pts win DANCE AND DANCE (2.50 Epsom)
BET 2.1pts win HIGHLAND KNIGHT, and 1pt win and place STARWATCH (3.25 Epsom)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 9pts win THE FUGUE, 3.1pts win KAILANI and (already ante-post) 2pts win COLIMA (all 4.05 Epsom)
HORSES TO FOLLOW running today: Kissed (4.05 Epsom)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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