TUESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Tuesday’s games between WOLVES v CRYSTAL PALACE, ASTON VILLA v FULHAM and LEEDS v LEICESTER all with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WOLVES V CRYSTAL PALACE
7.30pm The Premier League fixtures just keep coming on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and we have a very busy week ahead! All eyes are going to be on Manchester City v Arsenal in this midweek round of fixtures on Wednesday night, but we have three interesting markets to look at on Tuesday. No doubt Leeds v Leicester is the big game here, but we start Tuesday with Wolves hosting Crystal Palace. We have the most open market of the evening here – Wolves come into the game as the favourites, currently trading 2.44 at the time of writing with Crystal Palace 3.45 and the draw is 3.3. Crystal Palace have yet to be beaten since Roy Hodgson came back, and I was surprised to see Wolves trading as short as 2.44 when I clicked into the market. Both sides were involved in big games that would have an impact at the bottom of the table at the weekend – Wolves lost 2-1 to Leicester which was a massive result for Leicester, while Crystal Palace played out a very boring 0-0 draw with Everton. I didn’t see that 0-0 coming considering Everton have been quite open under Sean Dyche and Crystal Palace had been scoring goals for fun under Hodgson.
Wolves kick off this game six points away from the relegation zone, but they don’t have many worries. They are only a win away from safety really. I can’t see that win coming here though, and I’m very happy with the 2.44 lay from a value point of view. I know the 0-0 at the weekend was very boring from Palace, but they seem to be in an excellent place at the moment and they are worth supporting. Wolves conceding an xG of 2.94 against Leicester at the weekend which was a very poor performance considering how poor Leicester have been this season. They have won their last two home games against Brentford and Chelsea so I can see why punters want to support them, however in both those games they conceded a higher xG figure than they created. Palace come into this game playing better football, and they look full of confidence under Hodgson too. They can get a result.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Wolves to beat Crystal Palace at 2.44 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolCry
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Wolves have lost four of their last seven home league games against Crystal Palace (W3), as many as they had in their previous 22 against them at Molineux (W12 D6).
● Crystal Palace have won their last four Premier League games against Wolves – they’ve never won five in a row against an opponent in the competition before.
● Wolves have won five of their last seven Premier League home games (L2), as many as in their previous 18 beforehand (D3 L10). Only once before have they won three in a row at Molineux in the competition, doing so in November 2021.
● Crystal Palace have won their last two Premier League away games, as many as they had in their previous 16 (D5 L9). They last won three in a row on the road in May 2019.
● Crystal Palace have won 10 points from their four Premier League games under Roy Hodgson (W3 D1), more than they had in their previous 15 before his return to the club (8 – W1 D5 L9). They’re looking to keep three consecutive league clean sheets for the first time since April 2022.
● Crystal Palace are unbeaten in their four Premier League games since Roy Hodgson’s return to the club (W3 D1), following a 12-game winless run before this. However, the average league position of their opponents in the winless run was 6th, compared to 18th in their last four.
● Wolves have dropped 18 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, just two fewer than they had across their previous two campaigns combined (20). They’ve lost four games having been ahead this term, only losing more in 2011-12 (7).
● Wolves have scored fewer second half goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (13), while a league-high share 64% of their goals conceded have come after half-time this term (28/44).
● Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances against Wolves – he’s never scored in four in a row against an opponent in the division before.
● No Crystal Palace player has been involved in more Premier League goals this season than Eberechi Eze (10 – 7 goals, 3 assists). He’s also scored in each of his two top-flight starts against Wolves.
ASTON VILLA V FULHAM
7.45pm We have the only odds on favourite of the night next as Aston Villa host Fulham. Aston Villa have been in superb form under Unai Emery recently, but they were held to a 1-1 draw against Brentford at the weekend to bring their winning run to an end. They still finished the game with an xG of 1.89, and they have been creating a huge amount of chances since Emery took over. It’s actually hard to believe that they sit sixth in the table – I know the likes of Liverpool, Brighton and Chelsea have all been dropping points lately but I don’t rate Villa as a side for the European spots, however that’s where they are! They were closer to a relegation battle than European football when Emery took over. Fulham recorded back-to-back wins after beating Leeds 2-1 at the weekend, and after a run of losses they will be delighted with six points from two games. That was a hammer blow for Leeds, especially with Leicester winning against Wolves. Leeds fans will be keeping a close eye on Everton results over the next few weeks.
Fulham obviously have a lot of points this season, but they have got away with a lot at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.9 which is very high, and their actual goals conceded works out at 1.4 per game. That difference of 0.5 might seem small to non-xG fans, but it’s actually a huge amount of points. The xG table drops them down quite a bit, and if they don’t fix their issues at the back they probably will end up in the relegation battle next season. Fulham have done well to win their last two games, and they did create a lot, but both times they conceded a marginally higher xG. They are still giving away a host of chances, and I wouldn’t be keen on supporting them in the market. Emery has been playing such an open and attacking game with Villa though I really fancy goals here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.95 and I feel we’re getting a huge amount of value here – it’s a very confident bet for me, a Max Bet at the odds. This game screams goals in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstFul
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa have lost just one of their last 18 home league games against Fulham (W10 D7), winning the last three in a row, since a 2-1 loss in April 2014.
● Following their 3-0 win at Craven Cottage in the reverse fixture, Fulham are looking to complete the Premier League double over Aston Villa for just the second time, previously doing so in 2013-14.
● Aston Villa haven’t won any of their last nine midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League home games (D5 L4) since beating Arsenal 1-0 in July 2020.
● Fulham have won all four of their midweek Premier League games this season, one of just two sides with a 100% win record on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays this term, along with Manchester City (5/5).
● Aston Villa have won their last four Premier League home games by an aggregate score of 9-0. They last won five consecutive top-flight games at Villa Park between May-September 1998, while they last did so without conceding between March-April 1983.
● Fulham have won six Premier League away games this season, including a 3-1 victory at Everton last time out. It’s their joint-highest number of away wins in a single top-flight campaign (level with 1960-61 and 1962-63).
● Aston Villa have scored in all 19 of their Premier League games under Unai Emery, the longest consecutive scoring streak from the start of a manager’s tenure in the competition’s history. Only once have the Villans scored in more consecutively in the competition, a run of 24 between September and March in 2007-08.
● Following a four-game losing run, Fulham have beaten Everton 3-1 and Leeds 2-1 in their last two Premier League games. They’ve not won three in a row while scoring more than once each time since October/November 2001.
● Only Ollie Watkins (20) has been involved in more Premier League goals for Aston Villa than Douglas Luiz this season (9 – 4 goals, 5 assists), with the Brazilian netting a late leveller against Brentford last time out.
● Fulham’s Harry Wilson has scored in each of his last two Premier League games – he last scored in three consecutive league appearances between May and August 2019, a run which included his first ever Premier League goal (against Aston Villa).
LEEDS V LEICESTER
8pm We finish Tuesday night with the biggest game of the week at the bottom of the table. Manchester City v Arsenal will take all the headlines on Wednesday night in the title race, but the loser between Leeds and Leicester will be under immense pressure. Leicester have been very poor this season, however they finally broke their run without a win at the weekend with a 2-1 win over Wolves. They had gone nine games without a win, but they finished the game with an xG figure of 2.94 – that was their biggest xG figure of the season and what a time to produce it too. Most football fans would have been saying all season that Leicester will eventually come good and survive, but they have hung around the relegation battle for so long now. Before the weekend, they would have been odds on to go down but that win bounced them out of the bottom three and given them a fighting chance again. It obviously puts huge pressure on Everton too. Leeds had a poor loss at the weekend away to Fulham, their away form has been a major issues all season, but they still have a one point advantage over Leicester and Everton heading into this game. They are four points away from Bournemouth now though, and there looks like a bottom five has formed.
Leeds will be delighted to have home advantage in such a big fixture. Leicester haven’t exactly been great at home this season so I don’t think it makes much difference for them, but Leeds have been very poor away from home. They’ve only managed nine points from their 16 away games this season – only Nottingham Forest have a worse record than that. Leeds have created a lot more at home, and they have been more solid at the back too. We have a reasonably open market, but Leeds are the favourites at 2.3. Leicester are trading 3.35 and the draw is 3.65. Leicester have been poor all season – their average xG conceded is 1.7 and they are only creating an average of 1.2 – a change in management didn’t bring a bounce, but you have to say they did play very well at the weekend. With that in mind, I wouldn’t take them on here. I feel it’s best to stay out of the match odds market here. Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page at 1.83 – both sides have been so poor at the back this season it’s hard to not see goals here. Leeds love to attack at home as well so I can see an open game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeLei
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leeds have won just one of their last eight league games against Leicester (D3 L4), a 3-1 away win in January 2021.
● Following their 2-0 win at King Power Stadium in October, Leicester are looking to complete the Premier League double over Leeds for the first time since 1997-98.
● Leeds have kept just one clean sheet in their 10 Premier League home games against Leicester, a 3-0 win in January 1997. Both teams have scored in each of the last six top-flight fixtures between the sides at Elland Road.
● Leeds have shipped 5+ goals in their last two home league games, losing 5-1 to Crystal Palace and 6-1 to Liverpool. No team in English top-flight history has shipped five or more goals in three consecutive home games, while in English Football League history the only side to do so are Rochdale in March/April 1932 in the Third Division North.
● Having won and kept a clean sheet in their first Premier League game under Javier Gracia, Leeds have conceded 23 goals in their last eight matches under the Spaniard. The Whites’ 2.6 goals conceded per game under Gracia is their highest under a single manager in the Premier League.
● Leicester won 2-1 against Wolves last time out, ending a nine-game winless run in the Premier League (D1 L8). Each of their last three Premier League victories have come despite them conceding the first goal, also coming from behind to beat Aston Villa and Spurs in February.
● Despite their victory against Wolves last time out, Leicester remain the only side in Europe’s big-five leagues without a clean sheet following the World Cup break. The Foxes have conceded in each of their 17 games in that time.
● Leeds’ Brenden Aaronson hasn’t scored with any of his last 35 shots in the Premier League, with his last – and only – goal for the club coming back in August 2022 (v Chelsea). Indeed, 13 different Leeds players have scored a league goal for the club since Aaronson last found the net.
● Leicester’s Harvey Barnes has scored in all five of his Premier League games against Leeds. Only two players have scored in each of their first six appearances against an opponent in the competition, with Raheem Sterling and Mohamed Salah both doing so against Bournemouth.
● Kelechi Iheanacho reached 50 Premier League goals (30) and assists (20) for Leicester with his first ever penalty goal in the competition last time out against Wolves. Having scored against Man City and Wolves, he’ll be looking to find the back of the net in three consecutive league appearances for the first time since April 2021.
