DERBY DAY SENSATION: DAQMAN PROFITS SOAR TO 320 POINTS: Daqman just can’t stop winning! After six successful bets on Thursday, he hit four more yesterday for 10 in two days, taking his nine-day total profit to 320 points, or £3,200 at a tenner a point.
10.5 WINNER AND SIXTH LAY UP AT ODDS ON: Oaks day was his seventh winning day. He landed Highland Knight (WON 13-2) at 10.5 on BETDAQ, Side Glance (WON 4-1) and his sixth consecutive successful lay in the nine days, daring to oppose Worthadd (unplaced 5-6), though the horse was odds on in a six-runner race.
Day 1: PROFIT 25 points (Thursday): Beaufort Twelve (WON 15-2), Primaeval (WON 5-2), Golan Way (lay, unplaced 11-4 favourite)
Day 2: PROFIT 155 points (Friday): Amber Silk (WON 13-2), Watheeq (WON 6-1), Figaro (WON 2-1), Michelangelo (nap, WON 4-6).
Day 4: PROFIT 19 points (Sunday): Golden Shot (WON 43-10 from 9.2 on BETDAQ), Leitor Mor (lay, 2nd 9-4 favourite) and Crius (lay, unplaced 13-8 favourite)
Day 5: PROFIT 91 points (Monday): Markab (nap, WON 11-4), Cape Classic (WON 5-2), Artigiano (WON 11-10).
Day 7: PROFIT 9 points (Wednesday): Glittering Gold (nap, WON 6-5)
Day 8: PROFIT: 44 points (Thursday): Carlton House (nap, WON 10-11), Opinion Poll (WON 5-4), trebled with Ibtahaj (WON 1-3); plus Stipulate (2nd 14-1), Glenora Gale (lay, 2nd 8-11 favourite) and Top Offer (lay, unplaced 3-1 favourite)
Day 9: PROFIT: 21 points (Friday): Highland Knight (WON 13-2 from 10.5 taken on BETDAQ), Side Glance (WON 4-1), Gatewood (WON 9-4) and Worthadd (lay, unplaced 5-6 favourite)
On Camelot’s day, punters are looking for a King Arthur. The last three Derby odds-on shots have all been beaten and, going back to the last century, trainer Arthur Budgett turned over the hot Epsom favourite twice in five years, including at 25-1.
Looking at the 2012 results so far, with Homecoming Queen (1,000 Guineas) at 25-1 and Was (Oaks) at 20-1, anything is possible in this year’s Classics after the rain-soaked Spring on the gallops.
But Aidan O’Brien had the favourites for both those races and the only man who could beat him was himself! I shall look no further than himself again today.
1.35 Epsom (Diamond Jubilee Handicap): Sylvester Kirk has won this twice in the last three years, at 16-1 and 10-1 off ratings of 75 and 83. His runner today, The Giving Tree, races off 80.
The Rock of Gibraltar filly – out of a Galileo mare – is raised considerably in class, but then so were both Kirk’s previous winners, and she is clearly bred for the big occasion: she has already beaten the colts and has a nice draw in stall four: 14.0 on BETDAQ, as I write.
If stall one doesn’t trap him, Mark Johnston’s Fennell Bay (12.5) will feel he’s running on air, dropping 21lb in the weight on his back, though actually up 4lb in the ratings after a ‘moral’ win at Haydock, pipped by a neck under his big burden. Epsom should suit his style.
But Fennell Bay is well adrift of Open Water if last year’s form holds good: the Newmarket race in question was won by one of today’s Derby contenders, Main Sequence.
Open Water’s stable was in top gear at the meeting yesterday, and the Orpen colt was given a searching pipe-opener, raced from the front on soft ground at HQ early last month.
The other Mark Johnston runner, Hajras, has already done well at today’s class-2 level but, on both AW and on turf, has so far stuck to an easy surface.
Grandeur did it well at Goodwood, a similar turning track, but his last year’s form with Spoke To Carlo (he’s now a stone worse off for a little over three lengths) suggests that he needs to find more. So does Spoke To Carlo: a maiden hasn’t won this since 1989.
You would normally expect Mister Music to set this race alight but he has to get across from an outside stall (10), if he is to adopt his usual front-running tactics. Richard Hannon does well in this race, however.
Position – gelded in the close season – was a worry now that Sir Mark Prescott’s yard has hit form but he’s drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, friendless at 17.0 at the time of writing.
2.05 Epsom (Woodcote Stakes): Mark Johnston has landed this three times in the last decade, last year using the services of Silvestre De Sousa who is back for more on Heavy Metal. His Newmarket win has been franked by the third horse.
But for a slow start, Chilworth Icon would have beaten Lyric Ace at Kempton (5f) and that one is entered for big-time two-year-old classics, like the Railway Stakes. Icon needs this extra furlong.
Liber is well grown and, once he got into his stride at Carlisle, was tearing them up! His stable has just struck form, completing a hat-trick when scoring at Epsom yesterday.
Surely Speightful came from a winners’ race at Ascot on the soft to score well on firm; she has to beat the colts here, but it’s always well to remember that Kevin Ryan usually has two-year-olds in depth, like Richard Hannon.
Euxton Hall has already won well over 6f but that was on the soft and, unless there’s rain to affect the ground, I fancy this Liber, one of those big bolting sorts who could get into a stride on here that won’t be for the catching: 7.2 says it’s worth chancing. I think Liber and Euxton Hall could get away from them.
2.40 Epsom (Coronation Cup): Ballydoyle is four out of seven in this, right up to last year’s success with St Nicholas Abbey, who goes for a repeat at odds on today.
He’s already seen off Beaten Up, Masked Marvel and Robin Hood but we need to examine those races and remember that he has been outgunned twice this year.
St Leger winner Masked Marvel needed the run back in the Jockey Club Stakes when finishing behind Quest For Peace. He doesn’t want rain, whereas Yorkshire Cup winner Red Cadeaux does, or the shorter trip may find him out for speed.
The morning market is punter friendly on BETDAQ (103%) but it says that only Beaten Up is any danger to the favourite, which is surprising since William Haggas’s colt still has to climb the grades from Group 3.
Assuming any rain is not too serious, Masked Marvel’s price is ‘wrong’ at 11.5, as I write, if only taking this line: ‘Marvel’ was three-and-a-half lengths in front of Sea Moon in the St Leger; St Nicholas Abbey was two-and-a-quarter in front of the same horse at Churchill Downs, albeit giving a bit of weight but the ground was against Sea Moon that day.
There can’t be much between Masked Marvel (a year younger and open to more improvement) and St Nicholas Abbey but it’s a tactical race, for which – yet again this season – the weather may hold the key.
When you’ve had six winning lays on the trot, and made 60 points profit, then laying St Nicholas Abbey at a cost of 66p in the pound is not a problem, and the icing on the cake if it comes off.
3.15 Epsom (Dash): For nine years now, horses drawn 1 to 7 have failed to win; for the last six years none has even reached the first three. Winning stalls in the nine years were 8 (twice), 9, 10 (twice), 15 (twice), 17 and 18.
David Nicholls, who usually blanket enters, and has won this four times in the decade, has just the one runner, Fitz Flyer (Kieren Fallon, stall 8), down nicely on last year and 10lb lower than in 2010 but with only a single success in 21 outings since December, 2009.
Sohraab is equally hard to win with but was favourite and got within threeparts of a length of victory in a similar race over course and distance last August. He was fourth in this last year from the ‘coffin box’ stall one.
You see, three-year-olds don’t win, and horses aged four (1-41) and five (1-33) have poor records; you need a seasoned warhorse, like last year’s winner, Captain Dunne, who is racing off the same mark, and is nicely drawn to go either side of the track from 11.
Judge ‘N Jury can’t be left out of calculations but has done his job already this year and is penalised, so I shall be with Captain Dunne (11.5 as I write), plus ‘coconut shy’ bets on progressive Epsom lover Living It Large (30.0) and Fitz Flyer (36.0).
4.00 EPSOM DERBY: It’s here at last, and a bit of a disappointment with only nine runners, but all the top trial winners have turned up and, even in a bad year, the Derby winner commands respect and a fortune in stud fees.
But the small field means that the winner will need to prove himself on the European stage – King George and, or, Arc – if not on the world stage.
Stats: Bonfire ticked all the boxes when I reviewed the stats in my ABC guide on Wednesday, with Camelot runner-up.
Breeding: Montjeu has got Authorized, Motivator, Pour Moi and Hurricane Run to win Epsom and Irish Derbys, and his son, Camelot, has always been regarded as a Derby horse, though picking up the Guineas along the way.
The dam of yesterday’s Oaks winner was a sprinter, but that didn’t stop her winning, nor did it stop Thought Worthy’s brother, Lucarno, from taking a St Leger. Bonfire’s dam is also associated with speed but she foaled the King George winner, Azamour.
Trials: Camelot’s 2,000 Guineas has been enhanced only by Power, who won the Irish version, unless you take Caspar Netscher’s German Guineas into account (it’s normally irrelevant in the grand scheme of things): nine others from the Newmarket Guineas have flopped since.
Bonfire won the Derby trial that usually matters most, the Dante Stakes at York. Astrology, Main Sequence and Mickdaam won theirs on turning tracks at Chester and Lingfield, useful preparations for tight cornering at Epsom.
Going: The times for yesterday’s Oaks Day results were all slower than average, suggesting that the track is not riding as fast as the Press claims, and some rain is forecast for today. Could be quite ‘dead’ ground.
Market: Thought Worthy, as low as 12-1 with one big betting firm, was easy to back at 20.0 on BETDAQ this morning. Main Sequence, 8-1 with some, was 13.5.
The ‘best-price’ percentage, picking and choosing from among all nine bookies advertised in the Racing Post, was 107, but save yourselves the bother: the one BETDAQ list of offers was at just over 101% when I checked it out.
VERDICT: The value on BETDAQ at the time of writing was 11.0 Astrology, the Ballydoyle second string in the wake of Was. Astrology was 7-1 and 8-1 with bookmakers.
Astrology ran away with the Dee Stakes at Chester and was only threeparts of a length inferior to Parish Hall (close to Power on last year’s form) and that 11.0 is ‘wrong’.
Bonfire has to step up from the Dante; he ran like a Champion Stakes winner to me. Main Sequence’s Lingfield trial hasn’t produced the winner since 1998 and is suspect because it was run on Polytrack this year. Mickdaam’s Chester Vase may not amount to much.
It looks like a one-two for Ballydoyle: 1 Camelot, 2 Astrology, 3 Bonfire, with Astrology best of the morning offers by a long chalk. I have to have a solid bet on Camelot to redeem ante-post (non-runner) losses as well as covering the stakes on Astrology.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 4.5pts win OPEN WATER and 1.5pts win and place THE GIVING TREE (1.35 Epsom).
BET 3.2pts win LIBER and 1.6pts win (stakes saver) EUXTON HALL (2.05 Epsom)
LAY to win 10pts ST NICHOLAS ABBEY, and BET 1.9pts win MASKED MARVEL (2.40 Epsom)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 2.8pts win CAPTAIN DUNNE, plus 1pt win and place LIVING IT LARGE and 0.8pts win and place FITZ FLYER (3.15 Epsom)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3pts win ASTROLOGY, and 9.8pts (stakes saver) CAMELOT (4.00 Epsom); ante-post already, losses of 3.87pts on non-runners.
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double Red Jazz (nap, 2.35 Haydock) and Masked Marvel (2.40 Epsom). Plus 2 x 1pt win trebles the same two with Astrology and Camelot (4.00 Epsom)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated or in Daq Multiples) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken for a win bet at the time of writing.
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