O’BRIEN MONARCH OF ALL HE SURVEYS: Daqman reckons that the Ballydoyle maestro can follow up the Epsom Derby with today’s Chantilly version, though he rates an unbeaten French horse the likely danger and value on BETDAQ this morning.
Is there another Classic king in the court of Camelot? Imperial Monarch is down the pecking order behind His Majesty but that could be good enough to continue the 2012 Classics sweep by Ballydoyle in today’s French Derby.
Camelot went into our Derby off 121, some 11lb in front of Imperial Monarch, but Monarch’s 110 would, in theory, have had him run second at Epsom in front of the actual second, plus the fourth, fifth and sixth colts home.
I stand by my decision to back the ‘missing horse’ in that result, the third, Astrology (rated 113 on the day), at 11.0 on BETDAQ, confirmed as value by an SP of 13-2.
You win some, you lose some. In fact, you and I will have more losers than winners. But we will not lose if we have value on our side. As long as we have 10-1 about 13-2 shots, we can beat the book. Only in hindsight was it wrong to bet against Camelot.
What will hindsight tell us at the end of the day at Chantilly? It usually declares: you shouldn’t have bet against the low draw. It wins every time.
In fact, stalls 4 to 13 have won all bar one French Derby in the last decade, and Imperial Monarch in 9 has a comfortable enough position.
As for his form, we have learned from 20-1 and 25-1 Ballydoyle Classic results at Newmarket and Epsom that Aidan O’Brien is the master of his own destiny; the form book is his ally but not his mentor.
Rogert Varian’s Ektihaam has to emerge from a rails trap in stall 2 and his splitting Bonfire and Fencing in the Dante now looks below Classic-winning par.
John Gosden perseveres at the top level with his handicap winner, Gregorian, fifth in a blanket finish for the French 2,000 Guineas but by a stallion with a stamina index of 7.3 out of a mare whose sire has 7.8. It may be significant that only another doubtful stayer, Amaron (fourth), and another minor winner, Nutello, are also coming on from that Longchamp race to Chantilly today.
French Fifteen was second in our Guineas, just pipped by Camelot. That may be good form. ‘May be?’ you say, ‘are you mad?’ My answer is that we now know that Camelot is a stayer who summoned up enough speed – that makes him a potentially great horse – to win a Guineas.
But those behind included Fencing, whose collateral form now seems sub-standard, the Irish 2,000 flop Trumpet Major, and seven other failures. Only Power, and of course Camelot, have come out of it with any glory.
In the case of French Fifteen, it’s not so much a case of what beat you but what you beat. Unless, of course, he is another stayer in embryo like the winner was.
In fact, there is no Classic substance in his pedigree, nor any reason to suppose that he will stay much beyond a mile, notwithstanding that the French Derby is only 1m 2f.
Albion, Kesampour, Hard Dream, Lunayir, Saonois and Top Trip have all won at the distance, Saint Baudolino and Sofast nearly so. But, just as we’ve had to suffer as punters in England, we are faced with different ground, a drying Chantilly whereas most trials were run at Longchamp and Saint-cloud on soft, sometimes heavy.
The betting trick with French racing is to back a French horse in England, where the British horses are shorter, and British horses in France where the Gallic contenders are shortest. So I’m carving one slice of Betdaq value about a home hope and taking pari-mutuel (PMU) returns about Imperial Monarch.
Most Improved (in stall 11), sired by a French Derby winner, could have the best form on show, third to Parish Hall and Power (if only we knew where Parish Hall fits into the 2012 jigsaw), and with the collateral benchmarks, Ektihaam and Gregorian at a respectful distance the last twice he raced. But a second ‘if only’ here is ‘if only he’d had a run’.
French trial winners have a bad record in their own race; what is more significant is that at least half of French Derby winners (in fact, spot on 50% in the last decade) had already won at Chantilly.
The Racing Post is unable to mark a French card with ‘C’ for course winner, poor dears, so I will do it for them: just Lunayir (stall 15) and Saint Baudolino (3); though Sofast was only a neck behind Saint Baudolino.
Alain De Royer Dupre has secured the services of one of my favourite jockeys, Johnny Murtagh, for Lunayir, who is by one of my favourite horses, Sinndar, but the dreaded high stall (15) is a worry, as is the curse of Pricewise for Saint Baudolino (is he in a trap in stall 3? The lowest three stalls have a bad record).
It leads me to the Aga’s cooker in the betting, steaming Kesampour, unbeaten, stall five, Christophe Lemaire on board: the French front-runner in the market, yet 8.8 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 4.1pts win KESAMPOUR and stake to win 30 on the PMU final show IMPERIAL MONARCH (3.15 Chantilly)
BET 3.1pts win MYTHICAL WARRIOR (3.40 Uttoxeter)
BET 3.1pts win SABLAZO (4.00 Fontwell)
BET 1.6pts win (nap) OPERATION TRACER (4.20 Nottingham)
BET 2pts win LANSDOWNE PRINCESS (5.00 Fontwell)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated or in Daq Multiples) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken for a win bet at the time of writing.
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