IT’S THAT DAQMAN PROFIT FEVER: Daqman finished narrowly ahead yesterday through Sea Fever (WON 5-2) at BETDAQ offers, adding to his success on Monday with a jackpot bet (Danadana WON 5-4) and a nap (Sky Lantern WON 11-8). Total profit in the two days: 28 points.
NINE WINNING DAYS OUT OF 13: Up to and including Friday last week, Daqman won 320 points from seven winning days out of nine. This is the last 13 days of profit and loss shown as W (win) and L (lose): WWLWWLWWWLLWW
4.45 Notttingham Cockney Dancer won first time out last season. If a horse fails to go on as she did, the trainer will want to catch the animal fresh again, when the stress of racing has been forgotten.
Charles Hills brings her back today, still hoping she can get some black type, so this handicap should be within her capabilities.
Cockney Dancer is dropped right down to a class-4 and, thanks to exchange betting this morning, will cost me only a couple of points of outlay to guess at 9.8 that she can win, fresh as paint: half the early-doors bookies were 6-1.
6.00 Kempton Park (Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Median Auction Maiden Stakes): There’s an old adage: it’s not what beats you; it’s what you beat. Jubilee Brig was only a neck behind a subsequent conditions-race winner in his second maiden.
But all the horses behind – ditto in his first maiden – were losers or have lost since. Not a case for odds-on confidence, when there’s a Hannon colt in the race, running for The Queen this week of all weeks.
In fact, the 4.1 about Her Majesty’s Augustinian is inappropriate to his chance; the probability is much higher, particularly with Three Crowns ‘not wanted’ at 8.4.
That suggests a two-horse race and, since I can lay one at 1.6 and back the other at 4.1, I’m quite happy to go in and try a double whammy when the horses in question are unexposed and ‘my one’ is a Hannon juvenile.
6.30 Kempton Park (Back or Lay betdaq.com Handicap): Here’s another that needs to be caught fresh, and the morning market says it’s go, go Gottcher!
Gottcher is down in the weights, runs for an in-form yard, and has Ryan Moore booked. BETDAQ punters have taken the hint early doors, which has pulled the rug from under me; he’s no longer value, trading at 3.75.
Pick A Little is now the best bet for your money at 5.3, as a 6f winner, lower in the ratings now than for a hat-trick last term, he seems sure to thrive on Gottcher’s front-running tactics. It could be close (I mean really close, not Tommo close).
7.00 Kempton Park: (Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap): A class 3, best race all day (though maybe not for betting purposes). Could Tappanappa tap a nap in? He’s two out of three on AW and is dropping from class-2 efforts on turf.
But the BETDAQ market is a frightener: Tappanappa has drifted alarmingly, like a lonely dog on a raft, right over the betting weir at 18.5. Such a move suggests a problem, maybe a non-runner later in the day.
Tinshu is also easy to back (10.0 as I write), as early-doors thieves have gone overboard about Laatafreet, only 2.92 (sorry, went 2.9 before I could claw back my cursor).
Godolphin have had a quiet year so far but this is a race they win (2007 and 2009). I shall put Laatafreet in my Daq Multiples.
7.30 Kempton Park (Betdaq Casino Games Handicap): Seven furlongs is a specialist trip, and 7f at Kempton even more so. I therefore suggest confining our search to the seven CD winners.
On current stable form, and draw, my pound will go on Beautiful Lando, forgiven his run from a poor stall last time and likely to improve as a four-year-old; that also applies to Golden Compass but the ‘if’ is: can he get the trip?
I came into this market after a withdrawal, so I shall not be telling it right, if I nominate anything at the offers I see in front of me in a list remaining highly overround.
8.10 Ripon Tajneed won this in 2010 off a pound higher when the five highest stalls filled five of the first six places.
Again last year, five of the first six home were stands’ side runners , though they allowed a low-drawn four-year-old to go clear on the far side.
The percentage call must be a double-figure draw and, from 11, the four-times course winner Tajneed, is a big price, offered at 11.5.
Compare this field with the one in which he ran a threeparts-of-a-length second at York last July, getting that close to Hoof It off 102 but with only 89 today.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.2pts win COCKNEY DANCER (4.45 Nottingham)
LAY to win 10pts JUBILEE BRIG and BET 6.4pts win AUGUSTINIAN (6.00 Kempton)
BET 6.4pts win PICK A LITTLE and 2.1pts win (stakes saver) GOTTCHER (6.30 Kempton Park)
BET 1.9pts win TAJNEED and 0.9pts win (stakes saver) PEARL ICE (8.10 Ripon)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win treble Painted Sky (4.55 Cartmel), Laatafreet (7.00 Kempton) and Along (nap, 7.20 Fairyhouse)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time.
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