CHARLES SCHWAB: After crowning a major champion at Oak Hill it’s time to put away the cold weather gear and head south to Texas for one of the oldest events on the schedule, a tournament that has undergone several name changes over the years but is simply referred to as “Colonial” by the players.
First and foremost, this is Ben Hogan’s tournament. He was a Ft. Worth native who won this event a record five times, and a statue of the Wee Ice Man now towers over the grounds of Colonial Country Club, which has colloquially been known as Hogan’s Alley for the past 50 years. Arnie has Bay Hill, Jack has the Memorial, and Hogan has Colonial. You can feel his presence on the grounds.
Originally designed by Perry Maxwell and John Bredemus in 1936, Colonial is a straightforward test that prioritizes accuracy over distance, with tight dog-legs, problematic Bermuda rough, and water that comes into play on several holes. A par-70 that measures 7,240 yards, it usually ends up being a mid-iron fest due to the many par-4s that force the players to hit their tee shots in the same area. That means there are very few gimme birdies at Colonial, which is why the scoring is always kept in check here and you very rarely see anyone challenge the 20-under mark, with the winning number usually in the 10-15 under range. The course has played host to this tournament since 1946, making this the longest-running non-major Tour event to be held at the same venue.
The field this week is stronger than you’d expect the week after a major, with Texas natives Scottie Scheffler (5.4) and Jordan Spieth (18.5) heading BETDAQ’s Win Market and names like Finau, Hovland, Morikawa, and Homa nipping at their heels. Sam Burns hoisted the trophy (and donned the plaid tartan jacket) last year, needing to reach only 9-under due to windy conditions throughout the week. Burns is back to defend but he’s been struggling a bit lately, missing his last two cuts and firing an 80 last Friday at Oak Hill, so he looks like one to avoid at 36.0, especially when there are so many other intriguing options out there. Here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Tony Finau (18.5)- The knock on Finau has long been that he doesn’t win enough– always finds himself in the mix but has trouble closing it out. With two victories in his past 15 starts, however, the most recent coming less than a month ago in Mexico, it may be time to find something else to talk about. Finau has been one of the most consistent players on Tour this season, ranking 6th in total strokes gained, 7th in scoring average, and 3rd in birdie average, and he’s found the top-25 in 12 of his last 14 starts. He also happens to have a tremendous record at Colonial, finishing 4th in this tournament last year, runner-up in 2019, and 23rd or better three other times since 2015. With the way he’s been playing lately, it would be a stunner if he’s not around the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday, which is why I think he’s a must-bet even at a relatively short price like 18.5.
Chris Kirk (50.0)- Though Kirk hasn’t done anything spectacular since his victory at the Honda Classic in February, he’s been rock solid these past couple of months, making six straight cuts and finding the top-25 twice in that span. His stats have been great, particularly the short game and putting stats, and he very much has the feel of a player who is due for another breakout performance. Given his record in this tournament, which includes five top-15 finishes and a win back in 2015, it seems like there’s an excellent chance of it happening this week. Colonial is one of those places where the same guys seem to play well every year, and Kirk is one of those guys. He’s a great value at around 50/1.
Eric Cole (102.0)- Cole is a rookie who will be making his first career start in this event, but given the way he’s been playing and the fact that he seems to his best work on difficult courses that feature small greens, he’s one to watch this week. Since his runner-up finish at the Honda in February (on a difficult course with smallish greens), he’s logged three more top-15s, including a T5 in Mexico and a T15 at the PGA last week on another tough course with tiny greens. Why does he fare so well on these types of courses? It’s because short game travels, and this guy has one of the best short games in the world right now, ranking 3rd on Tour in putts per round and 12th in total scrambling. He can get it up and down from anywhere, so he’s at an advantage when everyone is missing greens like they were last week at Oak Hill. While Colonial may not be quite that difficult tee-to-green, its small, firm greens are not easy to find, so this is another week where Cole’s short game should shine bright. He’s my favorite triple-digit longshot on the board.
