THE EDGE: Still all to play for after England kept the series alive by winning the Third Test. The action now moves on to Old Trafford. Preview includes a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MATCH OVERVIEW:
After a pulsating 3rd Test the sides arrive into Manchester with everything to play for. The 3rd Test was another cracker with plenty of dramatic market movements on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. This series has been incredible so far – we’ve had three Tests full of drama and there’s been very little between the sides too. Much has been made of England’s Bazball approach, but the reality is there really is nothing between the sides in terms of quality, they just have two different approaches. After three Tests and nearly 950 overs there is only 41 runs between the sides. Incredible. Australia have scored 1,850 runs for 58 wickets while England have netted 1,809 runs for 55 wickets.
England were helped by the brilliant crowd support in Leeds, and they will be on display in Manchester too. Lord’s is always an incredible venue, but you do miss the atmosphere there. With both sides playing so well it’s hard to pick holes in their XI. Obviously Australia have suffered the blow of losing Nathan Lyon after getting injured in the 2nd Test. It’s hard to see England changing their bowling attack after being so successful in the 3rd Test – Woakes and Wood were incredible and England will be hoping for more of the same from them. Not only bowling superbly, but then to finish the game off in style while batting! The biggest worry for England is the form of Jonny Bairstow. He’s not firing with the bat, but he’s also dropping some very important catches.
There’s a huge question for the England management to answer, but it’s hard to see them dropping him. Bairstow improving his performance though could easily be the difference between the sides here. A few catches instead of drops can swing the game for England with so little between the sides. We’re all set for an incredible Test match. A win for England would send us to the 5th Test at 2-2 and what a brilliant occasion that could be! I’m sure most neutral cricket fans will want that outcome. In fairness, the series deserves a thrilling finish like that.
WEATHER AND PITCH WATCH:
Since we had three back-to-back draws here between 1998 and 2000, Manchester has been a result venue. Since that run of three draws we’ve had 17 Tests and only two have ended in a draw. Two of those games were Ashes Test matches – once in 2005 when Brett Lee and Glenn McGrath had to survive 24 balls nine down for a draw in that famous Ashes series. England famously took confidence from Australia celebrating a draw! Then in 2013 the wicket just wasn’t a good cricket wicket to get a result. Since then it’s been a run of eight Tests with results, and England have a superb record here too. They’ve won 13 of the last 16 Tests here – two ended in a draw. The only side to win here since 2001? You guessed it, Australia.
RECOMMENDED BET:
Given the way the sides play, it’s always hard to see the draw as a long-term outcome. That being said, we generally have a good batting wicket at Old Trafford for the first three days before we start to see spin and variable bounce come into play. This Ashes series has generally been about looking up rather than down though – it’s been well known England have requested reasonably flat wickets, and it’s been about trying to bowl under clouds and bat under sun! The draw might offer an early trade, but as a long-term outcome it’s hard to see and I’m happy to rule it out at 4.9. As you would expect, there is nothing between the sides – they are actually the same price at the time of writing with England 2.5 and Australia also 2.5! I have to say Woakes and Wood changed the dynamic in the 3rd Test – they bowled with real pace and quality. Something England were missing in the first two Tests. Couple that with England’s record here and I think you can make the case that the home side should be favourites. There isn’t much in it of course, so I won’t go mad with stakes but England are 2.5 is worth taking.
The Edge Says:
Two points win England to beat Australia at 2.5 with Betdaq Exchange
View the market here -> https://betdaq.biz/EngAus4
IN-RUNNING STRATEGY:
From everything we’ve seen so far this Ashes, there isn’t much between the sides. The key to trading has been not to “get married” to a position – we’ve watched the market bounce around each day. There will be times England are on top and then Australia. We could easily get a day five here too given the wicket usually starts good for batting. I would support the side who bats first here given the record at Manchester, perhaps I’d worry about that position if it was cloudy on the first day – but in general batting first is a big edge here and if it was sunny early that could easily decide the Test. It’s a no brainer to support the bowling side when cloudy and batting side when sunny this Ashes series and that should continue here, but I fully respect the batting first record here. If it’s sunny on the first day, I would lay the bowling side as you’d have pressure on the draw price coming in too as the wicket plays well. Another exciting Test in store!
