PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON PREVIEW: The Striker previews the new Premier League season by looking at the outright, top four and relegation markets on BETDAQ.
It feels like just yesterday Manchester City were crowned Champions for the 2022/23 season, but the new Premier League season is fast approaching on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We should be coming off a very busy World Cup summer, but FIFA took the money and we had a Winter World Cup instead! It’s always an exciting time at the start of any Premier League season, and this season is no different. Manchester City will be the heavy odds on favourites, let’s run through the Winner, Top Four and Relegation markets.
OUTRIGHT:
The Outright Premier League market will revolve around Manchester City, and rightly so. They are the best side in England by a distance, and the best side in Europe too – they deserved to win the treble last season and finally Guardiola (pictured below) got Champions League success with City – he had to wait a while! Guardiola’s side start the season at 1.8 and to be honest that looks too big for me. Arsenal are second favourites around the 6.8 mark and Liverpool are next at 9.0 Manchester United and Chelsea are trading in or around 15.0 to 17.0 but it’s hard to see them being good enough.
The Arsenal price feels very short. They had an easy start to last season and carried that momentum forward, but when the pressure came they fell apart. They are a young side and I’m sure they will improve – plus they are adding Declan Rice to the midfield as well. However, it’s hard to see them playing as well as last season. They also meet Manchester United and Spurs early, but they are both at home. I feel Liverpool might offer the main danger to City, but they are still likely to have massive issues at the back.
I feel the biggest negative for City is them easing off mentally after winning the treble last season. Will they have the same fire in their belly? And they also started the season slowly last year. The 1.8 might drift a little, but it’s hard to see past them from an outright point of view. I expect drama throughout the season, but City will come good and finish strongly. I also feel they have a very “easy” (on paper!) start to the season, so they could easily have an early lead unlike last season. At 1.8 I feel they are worth a Max Bet. I just can’t see past them.
TOP FOUR:
The Top Four battle is always interesting, and with Newcastle jumping into the Top Four last season it certainly spiced things up. They fully deserved it too with an average xG created of 2.1 and an average conceded of 1.2. Chelsea will be hoping to bounce back from a shocking season last year, and they might actually benefit from not having European football. Newcastle being in the Champions League will surely add stress within the squad, and it’s not a surprise to see Chelsea trading a little shorter than Newcastle for a Top Four finish. I wouldn’t really fancy backing them at around 2.6 however because they were woeful last season.
Although I expect Arsenal and Liverpool to come up short chasing Manchester City, they should finish in the Top Four. Obviously Liverpool were very disappointing last season, but they can bounce back into the Champions League spots this season. I couldn’t put anyone off backing them at 1.6. The bet I like in the Top Four market is the Manchester United lay at 1.6 – much like Newcastle they have Champions League night to look forward to, but this will also add to the demands on the squad. They looked very tired towards the end of last season, and Erik ten Hag (pictured below) doesn’t believe in resting players – to be honest he hasn’t got the quality in his squad to do so! It’s a weird situation with the owners “trying” to sell but nothing happening. I feel ten Hag won’t be fully supported in the transfer market, and I also expect to see Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool take up three spots. That leaves the last one to either Manchester United, Newcastle or Chelsea and I’m happy to lay United at odds on. Anything under 1.95 looks good value to me. They conceded an average xG of 1.4 per Premier League game last season which is quite high – the xG table knocked them out of the Top Four and I wouldn’t have them odds on.
RELEGATION:
There’s always plenty of drama in the battle to stay up, and this year should be no different. We’ve all seen the classic photos from Luton’s ground during the summer, and they are heavy favourites to go down. I don’t think I’ve seen a side as short as 1.3 to get relegated from the Premier League without a ball getting kicked – the market isn’t giving them much chance! I’m happy to stay away from getting involved in that price, to be honest they look very limited and we all know money talks. It might be a very long season for them.
Sheffield United (pictured below) are the other side trading odds on. They finished ten points behind Burnley in the Championship and while clearly second best they did look quite limited at times. I wouldn’t have a strong opinion on their price at around 1.8 as it looks fair value to me. They’ll definitely struggle but they might be able to grind out enough results to stay up. After the top two in the market, we do have plenty of other sides involved at 3.5+, this is where it gets interesting!
I feel Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Everton, Wolves and Fulham will all be involved in the relegation battle. Fulham might be one to debate because they finished in the top half last season, but they were very lucky at the back conceding an average xG of 1.9 at the back. The xG table also put Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest in the final two places in the table – even below Southampton! Bournemouth conceded an average xG of 1.8 and only created an average of 1.1 – they look worth backing at 3.5 or bigger as their home form was also poor last season.
The Striker’s Recommended Bets:
Five points win Manchester City to win the Premier League title at 1.85 or bigger with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United Top Four at 1.95 or lower with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
One point win Bournemouth to get relegated at 3.5 or bigger with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PL2324
