THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews UNION SAINT-GILLOISE v LIVERPOOL, WEST HAM v FREIBURG, BRIGHTON v MARSEILLE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UNION SAINT-GILLOISE V LIVERPOOL
5.45pm It’s the final matchday of the Europa League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE on Thursday, and we have some massive games for the Premier League sides. West Ham and Brighton both have games to decide who will top their Groups, but we start the evening with Liverpool travelling to take on Union Saint-Gilloise. Liverpool did lost once in this Group, but they come into the game having the luxury of being certain of top spot. They have a four point advantage over Toulouse in second. Although unlikely, there is a chance Union Saint-Gilloise can finish second – they would need to win here and Toulouse to lose against LASK, who are away in fairness. We might actually have drama in this Group yet! Thankfully Liverpool won’t be involved in any drama, and you’d have to expect a second XI from Klopp here who will be keen to rest his main XI before a hectic Premier League schedule over the Christmas and New Year period. I would suggest if Klopp played anyone from his main XI he would be a massive hypocrite given how much he complains about the schedule!
The market is expecting plenty of changes for Liverpool here, and we have a very open market. Liverpool are still favourites at 2.5 with Union Saint-Gilloise 2.8 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. With Liverpool playing Manchester United at the weekend, I think that fixture basically rubber-stamps a weak Liverpool side here. We might see some market movement on the team news, but I would expect a weak one. To be honest, I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here – Union Saint-Gilloise are in a great position domestically but the gulf in class between the clubs is massive. The Liverpool second XI probably deserve to be the favourites. The home side are in a must win situation, and I can’t see a Liverpool side sitting back when this is a meaningless game for them – I expect an open game with plenty of chances and Over 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 1.53.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UniLiv
WEST HAM V FREIBURG
8pm We begin the important games at 8pm, and we start with West Ham hosting Freiburg in Group A. Both sides are certain to go through as they are clear at the top of the table but obviously there’s a big edge to topping the Group. The winner goes straight through to the Last 16 while the second placed side goes into the playoffs with the sides transferred to the Europa League from the Champions League. Obviously you could bump into some top sides there, so this is a massive game for both sides. West Ham will be happy to have home advantage, and they do have the advantage over Freiburg coming into the game too having beaten them in Germany already. A draw would be good enough to see the Hammers top the Group and head straight into the Last 16. West Ham come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.86 with Freiburg 4.3 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. West Ham were hammered at the weekend 5-0 by Fulham, but they did manage to beat Spurs in their midweek game last week. In fairness, they were gifted that win by some terrible mistakes by Spurs. I was still slightly surprised to see West Ham trading odds on when I clicked into the market.
You have to give West Ham credit for grinding out so many results this season, but there are red flags from their Premier League performances. Their average xG conceded is 1.73 which is very poor – only two sides have been worse at the back in the Premier League this season, Sheffield United and Luton Town; both long odds on to get relegated. The Hammers have been massively over-performing in front of goal; their average xG created is only 1.17 but their goals scored average is 1.63. That’s a huge difference – eventually they will stop scoring from difficult angles; that’s just probability over time. It’s hard to have a huge amount of confidence in Freiburg because they have been playing quite average football in the Bundesliga. They are conceding more chances than they are creating, and away from home they have struggled to create chances. I’m going to keep stakes very small here because of the Freiburg away form, but I still feel the game will be closer than odds of 1.86 suggest and I’m happy with a small West Ham lay.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) West Ham to beat Freiburg at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesFre
BRIGHTON V MARSEILLE
8pm We finish the evening in Group B as Brighton host Marseille. This is a very similar situation to the West Ham game above in the sense that both sides are already certain of going through and this game will decide who is first and second. This time however, Marseille have a one point advantage over Brighton so a draw will do for the French club. Brighton really only have themselves to blame for being in this position; on paper they should have easily topped this Group but a home loss against AEK Athens at the start of the tournament really put them on the backfoot. They started that game trading in the 1.2’s! They are the odds on favourites to win here at 1.68 with Marseille 5.1 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. Brighton have been a little lacklustre in the Premier League lately; they only managed a draw with Burnley here at the weekend and that’s a game they should be winning with home advantage. They have had a difficult fixture list, but they’ve also failed to beat the likes of Sheffield United, Everton and Fulham recently. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.68 on them to be honest.
Brighton are still creating chances, but they play a very open game and we know they will concede plenty of chances too. They actually haven’t managed to keep a clean sheet yet in the Premier League this season – they have managed it in this competition but obviously they have had some weak sides in their Group. Marseille are having an average season in Ligue 1 – obviously they are never going to compete with the likes of PSG and they sit in sixth at the moment. That’s a fair reflection of their performance level too; and to be fair to them their average xG created of 1.47 isn’t too bad. I just don’t have the confidence in Brighton at the moment to take the 1.68 – given their record at the back your mind always goes to the goal markets here. Both Teams To Score is 1.6 and Over 2.5 goals is 1.52. They are both better options than the Brighton back in my opinion, and I feel given the record of Brighton at the back this season I’m happy with Both Teams To Score at 1.6.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriOly
