BIG VALUE BETDAQ WINNER 4-1 SP: Daqman was back among the winners yesterday at a decent price, Pyrrhic Dancer (WON 4-1 from 8.7 on BETDAQ). Profit on the day: 5.75pt.
FAVOURITES CHRISTMAS FLUTTERS: Bookies are claiming three plunges on Christmas crackers but is it the punters who are crazy to back these short-priced favourites?
CRACKERS CHRISTMAS PUNTS?
ALLAHO: Is it Shishkin (rated 173), Bravemansgame (172) or Gerri Colombe (167) for the King George? Answer: none of the above, on both ratings and the betting.
That’s according to the alleged ‘flood of money’ that has Allaho the new favourite with bookmakers, with Willie Mullins choosing the big one at Kempton on Boxing Day for his nine-year-old, unbeaten in two years.
Allaho is lightly raced in that time (11111), the John Durkan, Ryanair and Punchestown Gold Cup among his trophies, twice beating Janidil (164).
He has a rating of 177, largely thanks to the Punchestown defeat of Clan Des Obeaux (172) and Al Boum Photo (165), both at the end of their careers: Clan hasn’t raced again; Al Boum just the once, pulled up.
GAELIC WARRIOR: Would you rather take 2-5 favourite Gaelic Warrior in the Faugheen Novice Chase at Limerick on December 28 (he has two other engagements between Boxing Day and the 29th)?
Another bookie-buster from Willie Mullins, yet Gaelic Warrior achieved stardom over hurdles not fences.
Gaelic Warrior has had just ONE steeplechase. Certainly he cantered home in a beginners at Punchestown, though the pair he beat had produced just one second and one third in previous chases.
SUPER SURVIVOR: The Welsh Grand National (December 27) has a reputation for winning gambles: in seven of the last nine runnings, the SPs have been 9-1 (twice), 8-1, 13-2 and three favourites at 5-2, 11-4 and 3-1.
That’s some going for a tough chase of 3m 6f+ usually run in the winter mud and with the exceptions to the short-SP rule winning at 20-1 and 16-1 (twice) at ages 10, 11 and 13.
Now here’s Super Survivor, with the bookies running scared, 6-1 in from 20-1, never tackled further than 3m, never won outside novice company.
In fact, seven-year–old Jamie Snowden gelding has raced in only ONE seniors line-up over hurdles or fences, second of five in a chase just short of 3m at Lingfield last month.
I’VE SEEN THE LIGHT
⭕ 1.50 Wincanton (Lady Godiva Mares’ Novices’ Chase Listed) A decent race, by Tuesday standards at least, bringing together a group of mares who are in good form.
Preference has to be for Nicky Henderson’s Arclight who was a wide margin (43 lengths no less) winner at Ascot over hurdles and has already confirmed she is equally talented over the larger obstacles by winning both her starts at Kempton and Exeter.
She has generally jumped really well – her only mistake came at the last at Exeter but she had plenty in the tank to survive the error and in the end win eased down.
She gets a 4lb allowance as the only four-year-old in the race but is the top-rated in any case – 6lb clear of her nearest rival on official ratings so her chances of a hat-trick look strong on the numbers.
Marsh Wren is probably the biggest danger and was the second favourite on Betdaq Betting Exchange in the morning market. The Stuart Edmunds trained runner was a winner on chasing debut at Warwick in handicap company. This will be tougher and the stable are currently 0-8.
ALLEN LOOKS THE MAN
⭕ 3.20 Wincanton A class 3 handicap hurdle in which Javert Allen is taken to build on the promise of his reappearance run at Ludlow where he chased home Moveit Like Minnie (pair finished well clear). The winner went on to win well at Huntingdon in the same class 3 as today.
That form looks solid enough and on the same good to soft ground Javert Allen can see off the hat-trick seeking Lowry’s Bar who was a course and distance winner in October before following up in good style at Chepstow.
It’s hard to crab his form or potential – except to say that he is now another rung up the class ladder and I’m never keen on supporting horses with sexy 11 form figures on handicap debut.
More often than not the handicapper errs on the side of caution (or to put it another way doesn’t want egg on his face) and I think that might be the case here as the starting mark of 120 looks plenty high enough.
Out Of Focus isn’t completely out of it – just a little more exposed than his two rivals above who might be improving at a greater rate.
FINALE TIME, AGAIN
⭕ 8.30 Wolverhampton I needed to wait until the last at Wolverhampton last night for a winner but it was worth the wait. Hopefully there will be something already in the bag today ahead of tonight’s Dunstall Park closer.
I’m keen on the chances of The Caltonian who brings good recent form to the table of 1123 with his better efforts coming over tonight’s trip of seven furlongs. The five furlongs at Newcastle looked a little sharp for him but he still did well to be beaten less than a length into third after a tardy start.
The handicapper has kept him on the same mark making him a play for me.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
1.50 Wincanton (win 10, nap)
BET 9.6pts win ARCLIGHT
3.20 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 5.5pts win JAVERT ALLEN
8.30 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 5.9pts win THE CALTONIAN
1 point win treble above three
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