SUNDAY SERIE A: The Ultra previews TORINO v NAPOLI, SALERNITANA v JUVENTUS and ROMA v ATALANTA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
TORINO V NAPOLI
2pm It’s an all Serie A Sunday on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! The Bundesliga is still on their winter break, and the focus this weekend has been Cup action in Spain and France. We do have three cracking Serie A fixtures to go through however with Napoli, Juventus and Roma all in action. We start the day with Torino hosting Napoli, and this is another fascinating market involving Napoli. The reigning Champions have been massively off the pace this season; they started this weekend a whopping 17 points behind league leaders Inter Milan. They have dropped so many points this season, but if you look at their under-lining numbers they are still playing the best football in Serie A. They have an average xG created of 1.9 which is the best attacking figure in Serie A this season; the closest side in Inter Milan with 1.79. They’ve also been solid at the back on xG figures too; their average xG conceded of 1.15 is the fourth best defensive record. When you add those two figures together, their overall performance figure of +0.75 is the best in Serie A – so why are they so far behind? They simply aren’t taking their chances. Their goals conceded is basically in-line with their xG, there’s only 0.02 in the difference but they just aren’t scoring goals.
That’s make it very difficult to trust Napoli this season. The question is, how many times can you back them playing good football without collecting? The reality is eventually they will start converting their chances – that’s just probability over time – however, there’s chance of Champions League football are getting slim if they don’t start scoring. We have a very open market here, but Napoli are still the favourites. The away win is trading 2.68 with Torino 2.98 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Torino are sitting in mid-table and they have been keeping games as tight as possible this season. Their average xG created is a very low 1.13, but their average conceded is only 1.15 which has meant they’ve been able to grind out a lot of results. Only one side – Empoli who sit in the relegation zone – has scored fewer goals than Torino this season. With Torino employing such negative tactics and Napoli struggling to take their chances, Under 2.5 goals looks a nice option here at 1.73. It would be a surprise if we saw goals in this one, and another decent bet is Both Teams Not To Score at 1.96 but I like the Under 2.5 goals bet the best.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TroNap
SALERNITANA V JUVENTUS
5pm Next we have Salernitana hosting Juventus, and another odds on favourite away from home. Juventus are the red-hot favourites here, and they are trading the shortest price of the day at 1.44. Salernitana are 9.2 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. After Inter Milan dropped points against Genoa in their last game in 2023, Juventus start the year only two points behind Inter in the title race. There’s no doubt that Inter are playing the better football, Juventus have had to grind out a lot of results, but the top two have moved away from the rest so Juventus will feel they have a decent chance of lifting the title. Their performance level simply has to improve though; there’s a huge difference between them and Inter. Juventus average xG created is 1.39 compared to Inter at 1.79. Their average xG conceded is 1.21 compared to Inter at 1.07. That’s a huge difference – even the attacking figure for Juventus isn’t great; it’s basically Europa League spot level in the table. They have to start creating more. Away from home is where most of Juventus poor performances have come – they are actually conceding more chances away from home than they are creating but obviously you have to give them massive credit for grinding out results – they are getting the job done.
I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.44 away from home, but it would be a surprise if they couldn’t get the job done against a very poor Salernitana side. They sit rock bottom of the Serie A table, even with a win over Verona in their last game of 2023. These sides actually met in the Coppa Italia on Thursday and Juventus ran out 6-1 winners with home advantage. It’s funny how the fixture list throws out back-to-back clashes like that every so often, but it’s hard to see how Salernitana can actually turn things around with such a little gap. For me the question here is how many goals can Juventus score – their average xG created away from home is only 1.27 which isn’t an impressive figure. Salernitana have an average xG created of only 0.92 this season – only one of three sides with an average under 1.0. Juventus can grind out a win here but it won’t be pretty in my opinion, and Under 2.5 goals is worth a small investment at 1.97.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SlnJuv
ROMA V ATALANTA
7.45pm We finish Sunday with the highlight of the day as Roma host Atalanta. This is a massive game for both sides as they chase the European spots. At the moment they are both sitting outside the top four – Atalanta started the weekend four points behind Fiorentina and Roma are five points. Bologna are sitting above them too, and then don’t forget about Napoli behind them! Roma finished the season very poorly last season after looking like big top four challengers and it will be interesting how they go in 2024. We have a very open market here; Roma are the favourites at 2.5 with home advantage while Atalanta are 3.3 and the draw is the same price at 3.3 at the time of writing. While Roma haven’t been creating a huge volume of chances, they have been scoring from all angles! They are massively over-performing in front of goals; their average xG created is only 1.31 but their goals scored average is 1.67. Jose Mourinho has been setting them up very solid at the back, their average xG conceded of 1.08 is the second best defensive figure in Serie A – just 0.01 behind Inter Milan with the best record.
Atalanta have better figures than Roma. Their average xG created is 1.6 which is the third best attacking figure in the league and they have been very solid at the back too. Not as good as Roma, but only marginal really. It’s hard to see anything bar a very close game here – with Roma having home advantage the sides are very evenly matched here. Obviously Atalanta have been creating more than Roma but their chances created lowers away from home. It’s no surprise to see an open market, and I feel the draw offers value at 3.3. Another interesting bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 – I really felt this would be trading shorter when I clicked into the market given how solid both sides are at the back. It’s also hard to an open game here; both sides will set up in the cagey fashion and I expect a classic cagey big Italian game here. Atalanta won the last meeting 3-1, but the two meetings prior finished 1-0 to either side. I can see another very close game here without many chances, and Under 2.5 goals looks a cracking position at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaAta
