SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s action in the Premier League all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm We have a bumper Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Six fixtures to enjoy and while we don’t have an early kick off, we have an 8pm game instead. We have four fixtures kicking off at 3pm and we start the action as Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest. It was a superb weekend for Nottingham Forest last week as they beat West Ham 2-0 – that was a much needed win, and Forest fans would have been nervous when Luton lead Liverpool at half-time during the week! Villa have had an up-and-down time lately. They beat Fulham last weekend, but they’ve dropped a lot of points lately. It’s fair to say that they’ve had their worst run of the season recently – it does feel like they’ve lost a lot of momentum in the Top Four race, however that door is still massively open after Spurs lost last weekend. Villa went back into the Top Four and now have a two point cushion as well. It feels like it’s going to go right to the wire for that fourth spot, even Manchester United will fancy themselves now.
If Villa are going to have a chance of actually finishing in fourth and getting Champions League football, they have to win games like this. They come into the game as the odds on favourites, currently trading 1.59 at Nottingham Forest 6.2 and the draw is 4.7 at the time of writing. As I have said before, if Luton are to stay up I really think it has to be Nottingham Forest to take their place; even with Everton below both of them. Forest have one of the lowest average xG’s this season; they are one of three teams creating an average xG of under 1.0. Away from home, that drops even lower. Villa have been excellent at home this season, but they have leaked sloppy goals lately. I do like Both Teams Not To Score at 2.28; Villa can keep a clean sheet on the way to winning here. However, given their recent run I’m just going to keep stakes a little low here to start the day.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AvlNot
BRIGHTON V EVERTON
3pm We have another game that’s going to have a big impact on the relegation battle as Brighton host Everton. Results have definitely gone against Everton in recent weeks, and they must be surely feeling the heat now. Much like Nottingham Forest fans, Everton fans would have been equally as nervous with Luton 1-0 up against Liverpool at half-time on Wednesday! Everton and Luton now have the same amount of points, and although you’d have to fancy Everton to survive given their performance level, they’ve been in the relegation battle for quite a while now since the ten point deduction. Brighton got a much needed confidence boosting win last weekend against Sheffield United; it’s always nice to win 5-0 but we have to remember it was against the worst side in the league. Brighton have the fifth highest attacking xG figure this season which is obviously impressive, but they’ve only won three times in their last ten Premier League games. Included in that run was a 4-0 loss to Luton Town which took headlines given it was so surprising! Brighton come into the game as the odds on favourites, but there are plenty of willing layers.
The home win is trading 1.9 at the time of writing with Everton 4.4 and the draw is 4.0. Everton’s stats against their results have certainly been a little surprising. Their home performances have been much better, but they’ve actually managed more points away from home this season. They are creating more than they are conceding at home but the results have come. Away from home, their average xG conceded is 1.52 against their average xG created at 1.28 but they have been able to grind out results. Brighton have been much better at home though; their home performances have been very impressive. Their average xG created is close to 2.0 and their average conceded close to 1.0 – pretty much the perfect stats. I know Brighton have been sloppy lately and haven’t been able to get over the line in games, but the 1.9 is too big here in my opinion. I will keep stakes reasonably low given the concerns, but there’s a lot point to a Brighton win.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Brighton to beat Everton at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriEvr
CRYSTAL PALACE V BURNLEY
3pm Another relegation battle, this time involving both sides. Are we including Crystal Palace in the relegation battle? They start the weekend five points away from the bottom three; it would be a massive surprise if they went down but for the time being they sit too close for comfort. Burnley just haven’t been good enough this season – they are nailed on to go down in my opinion. I suppose you could say, that if they are indeed to give themselves a chance at staying up, then they have to win games like this. They simply must beat the sides around them. They start the weekend seven points behind Luton though, never mind the sides sitting outside the relegation zone. Crystal Palace have been through a tough time lately with Roy Hodgson being taken ill at their training ground and then stepping down this week. That was really sad, especially after everything he gave to the club through the years. Hopefully he is alright, even allowing for the fact that some Palace fans weren’t happy with their performances this season, he deserved a good send off and to finish on better terms.
The reality is we have two poor sides here. Palace have been poor at home this season and Burnley have only managed eight points away from home this season. In fairness though, that’s more than they’ve managed at home! We have two sides with average xG figures which sit in the bottom five attacking wise, the main difference is Palace have been a good bit better at the back. As you would expect with home advantage, Palace are the favourites at 2.0 with Burnley 4.3 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. Palace aren’t a side that you usually want to be on at short odds, but it’s hard to say anything positive about Burnley – I wouldn’t put anyone off the Palace bet at 2.0 but you’d have to have more confidence in them than me! The bet I like is Under 2.5 goals at 1.78; the Palace average xG created is only 1.13 while Burnley’s is lower at 0.94. We have two poor attacking sides here, and I can see a very close and cagey game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryBrn
MANCHESTER UNITED V FULHAM
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Manchester United hosting Fulham. There’s no getting away from the fact that United have been pretty average this season; indeed they are actually conceding more chances than they are creating. Their average xG conceded is quite high at 1.61 – their goal difference finally turned positive at the weekend with their win over Luton Town. The next few weeks will be very interesting for United in my opinion; obviously the Sir Jim Ratcliffe deal has brought new life to the club and he seems to be trying to put the right structures for success in at the club. These things work slowly however, and apart from the feel good factor nothing has changed yet. United do have momentum though; they’ve won their last four Premier League games and the door has opened on the Top Four race too. They beat Aston Villa and then Spurs lost last weekend so while they are still five points behind Villa sitting in fourth, if United can win here and then get something against Manchester City things might get interesting. It is hard to see them being able to deal with Pep Guardiola’s men however.
While United have been conceding a lot of chances and have been average in general, Fulham have been exceptionally poor away from home this season. They’ve only managed seven points away from home this season; only Sheffield United have a worse record at the road. Fulham’s average xG conceded away from home is a whopping 1.81 which is exceptionally high, and as the saying goes you don’t win many games when conceding two goals! United have confidence at the moment too, and generally that’s when you don’t want to face United. The home win is trading 1.6 with Fulham at 6.0 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing. I have been very cautious when it comes to backing United this season; usually they have been trading lower than I have expected but this time around I feel that the 1.6 is too big. Fulham away from home just haven’t been good enough, and it seems a good time to support United too; everything lines up here for the United win and I’d have them closer to 1.5.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester United to beat Fulham at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunFlm
BOURNEMOUTH V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm Manchester City fans must have been excited when Luton were leading Liverpool at half-time on Wednesday, but any hope of City being able to top the table here was quickly put to bed in the second half. Liverpool aren’t playing in the Premier League this weekend because they have the Carabao Cup Final against Chelsea so by the end of this weekend City will have played the same amount of games as Liverpool. They are four points behind, so if they win here the gap is only one point; plenty of drama still to come in the title race! I have to say though, it feels like City are positioned to run away with things – they seem to be hitting that strong momentum run that seen them close down Arsenal so impressively last season. I suppose you could say they did drop points recently against Chelsea however, but they were unlucky in that game. They finished the game with an xG created of 2.43, and had to wait until the 83rd minute to equalise. It was just one of those games when the ball didn’t go into the back of the net for City; they won’t be worried with the performance anyway. They will be fully expected to win here – indeed they are the shortest price of any Premier League side this weekend.
Pep Guardiola’s men come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.44 with Bournemouth 7.8 and the draw 5.4 at the time of writing. Bournemouth went through a great spell in November and December with six wins from seven unbeaten games, but since then the wheels have come off. They bumped into Spurs and Liverpool, and now they’ve gone seven games without a win. They shipped three goals to Spurs and four to Liverpool, so you’d have to be worried how many they concede to City here! Bournemouth have been playing a very open game this season and while that has worked out for them, generally you cannot play an open game against City. They’ll just cut through you like a hot knife through butter. I feel City can cover the Handicap here, and they are trading 2.17 -1.5 goals which looks cracking value in my opinion. I feel we’re getting such a good price that it’s worth a Max Bet at the odds. We have the best attacking side against a side that’s been very open at the back; I expect a comfortable City win.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Bournemouth at 2.17 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BneMci
ARSENAL V NEWCASTLE
8pm It’s not often that we have an 8pm Saturday fixture, but we have a cracker this week as Arsenal host Newcastle. Arsenal were involved in midweek action in the Champions League, and they would have been reasonably OK with the result away from home, however conceding in the 94th minute to lose 1-0 is always a kick in the teeth. Newcastle have managed to get a result in three of the last four meetings against Arsenal, but it’s a sign of the times that Arsenal come into the game trading as short as 1.4 with Newcastle 8.6 and the draw is 5.4 at the time of writing. Arsenal will start this game five points behind Liverpool, and while it sounds a bit dramatic this is an absolutely must win game for Arsenal to get to within two points having played the same amount of games. Newcastle are there for the taking as well; they have been playing at a much lower level compared to last season and they have also had so many problems away from home too. Wins over Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest would have eased the pressure on Eddie Howe, but they still conceded twice against Forest and they have been leaking goals for fun recently. It’s hard to see them keeping Arsenal at bay, especially in London.
Newcastle haven’t kept a clean sheet in the Premier League since a 3-0 win against Fulham on the 16th of December, they were at home and Fulham have been one of the worst sides away from home too. Since then Newcastle have conceded 20 goals in eight games – they have had to play Manchester City and Liverpool but they’ve also played Luton twice, Nottingham Forest twice and Bournemouth. They’re average xG conceded away from home is 1.74 which is exceptionally high, and they have been creating much less than that too. While Arsenal haven’t been as good going forward as Liverpool and Manchester City, their average xG created at 1.86 is still very impressive. Couple that with the fact that they have been the strongest side at the back on paper this season, that’s a nice place to be and you can see why pundits are giving them a chance in the title race despite collapsing on the run in last season. I feel Newcastle are there for the taking, and Arsenal are in superb goal scoring form to take average too. I’m going to go for something a little bigger in price here, I like Arsenal to cover the 2.5 goal Handicap at 3.3. Newcastle have been so poor at the back lately, and Arsenal can take full advantage.
The Striker Says:
One point win Arsenal -2.5 goals to beat Newcastle at 3.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsNwc
