SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s three games between LECCE v INTER MILAN, AC MILAN v ATALANTA and REAL MADRID v SEVILLA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LECCE V INTER MILAN
5pm A wonderful Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE awaits! We have some top class action from Serie A and La Liga, and we kick off the day in Serie A with league leaders Inter Milan traveling to take on Lecce. It’s been an excellent little run for Inter Milan recently – they beat their only title challengers Juventus and then Juventus dropped points in their two games after. That left Inter nine points clear heading into this weekend; there’s no way that gap is closing, especially with the gulf in performance levels between the sides. Every xG fan was just waiting for Inter to take over and put distance between themselves and the rest, and here we are. Inter also got off to a good start in the Champions League midweek with a 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid. That was positive, but obviously they would have liked a bigger win with home advantage – they didn’t exactly put the tie to bed, and you could say as well that Atletico would have been reasonably happy to only lose 1-0 given their home performances have been much stronger this season. Back to Serie A action for inter anyway, and they will be fully expected to win here.
Lecce start the weekend sitting up the table in 13th, however they are only four points away from home the bottom three – it seems there’s going to be a lot of clubs involved in the relegation battle this season! Considering they finished down in 16th last season, Lecce will be reasonably pleased with how things have gone so far. There’s still a huge gulf in class between the sides here though, and Inter come into the game as the hot favourites. Inter are trading 1.46 with Lecce 7.8 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. Lecce are in the bottom five when it comes to the defensive figures in Serie A this season, and that spells trouble when you face one of the best attacking sides. The home side have really struggled for goals too, and they aren’t even converting the chances they are creating. Inter have an average xG conceded of only 1.05 this season which is the best defensive figure in Serie A. I feel they can keep a clean sheet here on the way to winning, and Both Teams Not To Score is worth backing at 1.92.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LecInt
AC MILAN V ATALANTA
7.45pm We stay in Serie A next for a very open market as AC Milan host Atalanta. This should be a high quality game with both sides starting the weekend sitting in the top four. AC Milan have a considerable cushion on Atalanta though; they have a seven point advantage so it’s Atalanta that have a battle on their hands for fourth. AC Milan missed a golden opportunity to jump over Juventus last weekend when losing to Monza – they shipped four goals in a 4-2 loss which was disappointing. They were back in action on Thursday in the Europa League but after winning the first leg 3-0 that game was just about getting the boxes ticked and getting through. As I said, we have an open market here but AC Milan are the favourites with home advantage. The home win is trading 2.44 with Atalanta 3.05 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. Atalanta have been very impressive this season, and on paper they have played much better football compared to AC Milan but it the home side that have managed to claim more points. I wouldn’t say that Atalanta have been average away from home, far from it, but they’ve clearly been much better with home advantage this season.
Away from home, they are only marginally creating more chances than they are conceding and they have a little under half the points they’ve managed at home. That’s been the major difference between the sides as AC Milan have been more-or-less the same at home and away. While the overall figures suggest Atalanta are much better – their average xG created is 1.69 against AC Milan’s 1.48 I feel home advantage will be key here. Atalanta just haven’t been getting the results away from home this season. I know the Genoa loss was a setback, and then of course they had a Europa League game on Thursday night too, but AC Milan have been playing much better football as the season has gone on and I felt prior to that Genoa game that they had excellent momentum. I’m happy to write that off as just one of those days, and I feel the best position here is the Atalanta lay at 3.05 to have the home win and draw on our side.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Atalanta to beat AC Milan at 3.05 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmAlt
REAL MADRID V SEVILLA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Real Madrid host Sevilla. What was once a massive top four clash, even sometimes close to a title race and top of the table clash, is now an expected win for Real Madrid given what’s happened to Sevilla over the last two seasons. After getting out of jail last season with a Europa League win, Sevilla have fluffed their lines in La Liga again. They start the weekend down in 15th, and they won’t be seeing European football next season. I actually think it will take them a long time to break back into the top four given they will attract less talent now and the bigger players will want to be heading for the exit door. The most bizarre thing about Sevilla this season however is that they haven’t been playing badly. Last season they were very poor at the back, that hasn’t been the case this season. Their average xG conceded is basically mid-table. The remarkable thing with Sevilla though is their average xG created is the third best attacking figure in La Liga – only behind Real Madrid and Barcelona. The problem? They haven’t been taking their chances, and they’ve also been conceding marginally more goals than they should. Put them together and it’s been another disastrous season.
Sevilla are unbeaten in their last four games, including a 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid. I know there’s such a gulf in points between the sides, but I did feel that Real Madrid were a little shorter than I expected when I clicked into the market here. Real Madrid are trading as short as 1.32 with Sevilla 11.0 and the draw is 6.0 at the time of writing. Real Madrid have been exceptional this season, led by Jude Bellingham they are running away with the title at the moment. I just can’t have them trading as short as 1.32 here, and I feel the game will be closer than those odds suggest. I definitely couldn’t put anyone off the Real lay from a value point of view, but I do fancy Sevilla to score at some stage. Real like to play an open game, and they will feel that they can out-gun this Sevilla side. I’m going to limit stakes considering how Sevilla have really struggled to convert their chances, but the reality is they have been creating a lot and eventually they are going to start putting the ball in the net as consistently as they are creating chances to do so! Both Teams To Score is trading 1.97 and that looks a nice bet for limited stakes.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ReaSvl
