MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews INTER MILAN v GENOA and OSASUNA v ALAVES both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
INTER MILAN V GENOA
7.45pm We kick off a massive week from Europe with Monday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE from Serie A and La Liga! Of course, it’s crunch time in the Champions League this week with the start of the Last 16 second legs while we also kick off the Last 16 in the Europa League. We start Monday night in Serie A with Inter Milan hosting Genoa. Inter have been racing away with the title in recent weeks; after winning their game in hand last week they started this matchday with a 12 point lead at the top of the table. Given the gulf in performance level between themselves and Juventus, they were always likely to pull away at some stage but the gap has grown dramatically quick. This is another game that you’d have to fancy them winning; Genoa are sitting in mid-table but they have been very limited going forward and you could say that they have been lucky to get the amount of points they currently have. Their average xG created is only 1.07 which is the fourth worst attacking figure in Serie A this season, and then that drops to 0.95 away from home. That’s definitely not the type of stat you want to bring to Inter away!
What Genoa have done well this season is defend, and while that has cost them going forward, I suppose they will be happy with their place in the table considering they only came up from Serie B. Their sole aim would have been staying in Serie A, and their miles away from the relegation zone. They come up against the best side in the league here though, and as you would expect Inter are the red-hot favourites. Inter are trading as short as 1.29 at the time of writing with Genoa 13.5 and the draw is 6.2. I can’t see past an Inter win here, so the betting is just about how many goals they can score in my opinion. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.79 which is probably a reflection of how solid at the Genoa are – the market isn’t expecting them to get hammered but at the same time Inter will have to do all the work to land that bet. I actually prefer Both Teams Not To Score at 1.6 – given Genoa have an average xG created of under 1.0 away from home and Inter have the best record at the back in Serie A this season, the home side can keep a clean sheet on their way to winning.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntGna
OSASUNA V ALAVES
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Monday night as Osasuna host Alaves. We should have an exceptionally competitive game here with the two sides very evenly matched. It’s not a surprise that we have an open market, indeed I felt it would actually be more open than it was when I clicked into it. Osasuna are the favourites at 2.46 with Alaves 3.5 and the draw is 3.15 at the time of writing. Both sides started this matchday sitting right beside each other in the La Liga table having played the same amount of games – Osasuna have four more points, but both sides will have very different feelings with their position. Osasuna finished in seventh last season, and they are nowhere near the European spots this season, while for Alaves they came up from the Segunda playoff last season so they’ll be delighted to be 11 points away from the relegation zone and under no pressure. Both sides have the exact same average xG created this season at 1.32, and they are both under-performing in front of goal too. Neither side are taking their chances, Alaves have been worse as they are scoring under one goal per game. You’d have to expect this to be a very tight affair!
Both sides have very similar average xG conceded figures too. Alaves are marginally higher at 1.38 with Osasuna at 1.27. I can understand Osasuna being the favourites with home advantage, but as I said I’d have a more open market. The reality is both sides have very similar home and away figures – at home both sides create more than they conceded, whereas away they both concede more than they create so home advantage will be a key factor here. The 2.46 on Osasuna doesn’t jump off the page however looking at the figures, however given the worries with Alaves away from home I don’t want to lay it either. I think we’ll have a very close and cagey game here; both sides are struggling to score goals this season and Under 2.5 goals 1.55 so the market is expecting a cagey affair too. I feel we’ll see a 0-0 or a 1-0 win either way here, so I’m happy to go with Under 1.5 goals at the better price of 2.68!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 1.5 goals at 2.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OsaAla
