CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PREVIEW: The Ultra previews BAYERN MUNICH v LAZIO and REAL SOCIEDAD v PSG last 16 second leg games – both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V LAZIO
8pm It’s crunch time in the Champions League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We kick off the Last 16 second legs this week, and we have some fascinating games over the next two weeks. We start with a cracker too as Bayern Munich host Lazio after losing the first leg 1-0 in Italy. Bayern Munich have been through a rough time, and that loss against Lazio followed a 3-0 loss to Bayer Leverkusen which handed Leverkusen a massive advantage in the Bundesliga title race. Since then, things have got worse for Bayern – they dropped points again at the weekend and now they are ten points behind Leverkusen at the top of the Bundesliga. Bayern’s long reign at the top of the Bundesliga is over. It’s also brought about a change in manager going forward as Thomas Tuchel will leave at the end of the season, which I feel is a strange situation – you’d have to wonder does he still have the support of the dressing room at the moment? Would it have been better to sack him now? Whatever the issues, nothing will focus the mind more than the Champions League. With the Bundesliga title gone, the Champions League can be Bayern’s sole focus now.
Despite the 1-0 loss in the first leg and all their problems domestically, Bayern will still be fancied to come through here. Anything bar a Bayern win here would be a massive shock in fairness, and they come into the game as the red-hot favourites. Bayern are trading 1.29 with Lazio 12.0 and the draw is 6.8 at the time of writing. Lazio are also having a dismal season domestically; there are a tonne of red flags. They massively over-performed to finish second last season, and they have dropped down to ninth. Their under-lining numbers are even worse though; they have an average xG created of only 0.94 which is the second worse attacking figure in Serie A. What has them in mid-table is that they have been solid at the back, and it doesn’t take a rock scientist that they’ll have XI men behind the ball here to play for a draw. An early goal for Bayern could see the floodgates open, but you also have to wonder how their confidence will be if Lazio manage to hold out until the 70th minute or so. The market is expecting goals because Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.63, but I like Both Teams Not To Score here at 1.79. Lazio have created so little this season and they will have very negative tactics here; Bayern can keep a clean sheet.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayLaz
REAL SOCIEDAD V PSG
8pm Next we have Real Sociedad hosting PSG, and this tie isn’t set up as well as the game above. PSG are in control here with a 2-0 lead after the first leg, and now they just have to finish the job. From that point of view, they will want this game to be as boring as possible – I’m not sure that is PSG’s style given they are usually involved in drama but I’d assume they’ll be well set up at the back here. PSG had drama over the weekend in Ligue 1 with Mbappe subbed off early – he didn’t sit with his teammates and went to the stands to sit with his family. Obviously he’s leaving in the summer, but the situation seems a bit toxic at the moment. Never a dull moment in the PSG dressing room after all! Sociedad have a huge task ahead here, and their chances of coming back from two goals down are very slim – it would have to be a PSG meltdown rather than Sociedad in my opinion. Sociedad have an average xG created in La Liga of 1.37 which is basically a reflection of their place in the table – it’s the seventh best attacking figure and that’s where they sit. They have focused more on being solid at the back, that has brought them an average xG conceded of 1.13 which is a very impressive figure.
That’s the second best defensive figure in La Liga, but the reality here is that they have to completely change their tactics given the situation. We have a very open betting heat. Sociedad are the favourites at 2.62 with home advantage while PSG are 2.88 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. It will be fascinating to see how PSG set up here; as I said above they’ll want the game to be as boring as possible but you have to say they can out-gun Sociedad here if they go toe-to-toe. The goals market is very interesting; Over/Under 2.5 goals is trading very close to 2.0 either side so we have some very different opinions! It’s hard to have a strong opinion on that market to be honest, hard to disagree with the odds given the situation. I feel the draw is the best value here at 3.6; Sociedad aren’t the best attacking side and PSG have no real reason to make this an open game, I’d personally have the draw shorter and Sociedad a little bigger in the market. The draw looks the value call.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SocPsg
