PREMIER LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Striker previews Tuesday’s five Premier League games all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V EVERTON
7.30pm The Premier League fixtures are coming thick and fast on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We returned with a bang at the weekend after the International Break, and we’re straight into another full midweek fixture list starting on Tuesday. We kick off the action with Newcastle hosting Everton, and even if we get half the drama that we had here at the weekend we’re in for a treat! Newcastle came from 3-1 down against West Ham to win 4-3 with goals in the 77th, 83rd and 90th minute. St James Park was absolutely rocking. I have to say Newcastle needed something like that for morale; they have been fairly average at times this season – most of their problems have come away from home but at times that has translated into them being more timid and lacking confidence at home. They had huge success last season when they were playing attacking football, however the key last season was they were a lot stronger at the back. They have been leaking goals this season and that’s been their problem. They’ve gone from being a Top Four side to likely missing out on Europe next season – talk about the highs and lows!
Everton have put together a pretty terrible run of results now, and another loss at the weekend against Bournemouth added to their woes. They are definitely in danger of getting dragged into the relegation zone in a big way now – they start this weekend round of fixtures just three points off Luton in 18th. Everton have now gone 12 games without a win, and they can count their lucky stars that Nottingham Forest and Luton have been worse! Newcastle come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. The home win is 2.04 with Everton 3.65 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Both sides have very similar overall figures – Newcastle’s overall performance figure is +0.01 while for Everton it’s +0.04 – that’s why we don’t see Newcastle trading odds on. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here because this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.64 and that looks a cracking position – these two have been playing a very open game and we should have a very entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewEvr
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V FULHAM
7.30pm Tuesday night could be a big night in the relegation battle as Nottingham Forest host Fulham next. How much pressure could Forest put on Everton here with a win and an Everton loss at Newcastle? Forest were able to grind out a draw at the weekend against Crystal Palace – as I said at the weekend that was a fixture that they needed something from and you could say similar about this fixture too. Fulham have been quite poor away from home this season, and with Forest still having to play Manchester City, Spurs and Chelsea, this is a fixture that appeals as a chance for some points. Fulham have an average xG conceded of 1.78 away from home this season which is very high – they conceded three goals to Sheffield United away at the weekend too. It’s not a surprise that we have an open market when you look at the Fulham stats, although just looking at the table it might surprise a few football fans to see Forest as the favourites. Nottingham Forest are 2.66 with Fulham 2.9 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing.
It’s hard to have much confidence in either side here to be honest. Obviously Forest have been very poor this season – they suffered a massive blow with the point deduction, which they are appealing, but they are one of only three sides with an average xG created of under 1.0. The other two are Sheffield United and Burnley, both pretty much nailed on to go back down to the Championship. As I said above, Fulham could only draw away to Sheffield United at the weekend and that doesn’t inspire confidence in them here. While you’d have to have worries about Fulham away from home, the 2.66 on Forest feels a little shorter considering their poor level this season. We have the most open market of the evening, but I’d actually have it even more open. This is a game for small stakes in my opinion, and the draw is the value play at 3.5.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotFlm
BOURNEMOUTH V CRYSTAL PALACE
7.45pm Bournemouth host Crystal Palace next, and compared to some of the other fixtures tonight that can have a big impact on the relegation battle or the Top Four race, this is definitely a fixture that can get glossed over quite quickly. It’s the classic fixture that only gets two minutes on Match Of The Day unless something very dramatic happens. Bournemouth come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.94 with Crystal Palace 4.0 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. Bournemouth have been creating a lot more than Palace this season – their average xG created is 1.50 compared to Palace at 1.13; however Bournemouth have also been conceding more. I would be more worried about that Palace figure going forward though – it’s in the bottom five attacking figures in the Premier League this season. That figure actually drops to 1.04 away from home too, which is very average. Obviously Palace have been through a lot of changes recently with Roy Hodgson having to step down after illness; creating more chances will be at the top of their list. Each year they seem a sitting duck for the relegation battle, but in fairness they always manage to avoid one!
Bournemouth have been heavily involved in relegation battles too, but their new approach is clearly working. The sides might be sitting beside each other in the table, but Bournemouth have an eight point advantage. They have been conceding a lot of goals and chances, but they always did that – at least this way they are creating more. You’d have to worry about that Palace away xG, but they have been scoring goals recently. They have managed to find the net at some stage in their last eight Premier League games; they’ve actually scored in 13 of their last 14 too. Both Teams To Score is trading 1.73 and that looks a very nice position. Over 2.5 goals is also an interesting bet at 1.8, but I prefer the BTTS position at a couple of ticks lower. We have two sides here who make plenty of mistakes at the back, and we should have plenty of chances at both ends of the pitch.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouCrl
BURNLEY V WOLVES
7.45pm Next we have Burnley hosting Wolves, and this is an absolutely must win game for Burnley if they are going to have a chance of getting into the mix to stay up. A draw away to Chelsea at the weekend was a complete bonus point, and that gives them two draws and a win from their last three games. It’s not much obviously but that’s their best run of the season results wise! Their xG figures are still very poor – their average xG created is only 0.97 which is the joint-second worst attacking figure in the Premier League. Only Sheffield United have created less. As things stand heading into the midweek round of fixtures, Burnley are four points behind Nottingham Forest and Luton – that’s quite a gap at this stage of the season but a win here would certainly give them some hope. They still have to play Brighton, Manchester United, Spurs and Newcastle on their run-in but all those clubs leak chances. It’s a tall order, but at least they don’t have to meet Manchester City, Arsenal or Liverpool! In terms of the fixture list, Wolves at home is definitely a game that you’d want to get something from.
We have a very open market, and Wolves are the favourites at 2.52 with Burnley 2.94 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. Obviously it’s hard to have any great faith in Burnley this season, but Wolves have been over-performing in front of goal. Their average xG created is 1.18 while their actual goals scored is 1.45. They have a higher average xG conceded at 1.53 but again Burnley are conceding more than that. Wolves have had recent away wins against Spurs and Chelsea, but they generally concede plenty of chances away from home. I’m not a fan of Burnley, but you’d have to acknowledge that this is a time where they seemingly have good momentum. Home advantage here against an average side could see them get a result. If the Burnley fans don’t have the stadium rocking for this one then I’d be judging them! I think this is a game for small stakes, but the draw is worth backing at 3.7 – this should be a very close game.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurWlv
WEST HAM V TOTTENHAM
8.15pm We finish Tuesday with a London Derby as West Ham host Spurs. We saw wins for Aston Villa and Spurs at the weekend in the Top Four race, Villa’s was quite straightforward but how dramatic did Spurs make it? They needed an 86th minute winner to come from 1-0 to beat Luton with home advantage. Spurs went into that game trading as the shortest price of the weekend fixtures, but as we know by know nothing is too straightforward with Spurs! This should be an interesting game game; West Ham are only a couple of places behind Spurs in the table but they have been massively over-performing in front of goal this season. The Hammers have an average xG created of only 1.16 which is in the bottom six attacking figures in the Premier League! Their actual goals scored average is 1.63 so that’s quite the difference, and the reason why they are sitting this far up the table. They have been leaking goals and chances at the back – their average xG conceded is 1.79 which is exceptionally high. Only Sheffield United have conceded more chances than that – as you can see looking at the figures, once West Ham stop scoring from awkward angles, and that’s just probability it’s just a case of waiting, they will run into major issues.
This should be an entertaining game as Spurs are hardly bombproof at the back either. Ange Postecoglou has Spurs in top form going forward – their average xG created is 1.79 and only Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool have created more this season. As we all know though with Spurs, disaster is never far away. Sloppy at the back is still the best way to describe them; there’s always a mistake or two waiting to happen! That’s why they aren’t the odds on favourites here. Spurs are trading 2.22 with West Ham 3.15 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. Despite all the issues with Spurs, I still feel the 2.22 is good value here looking at what West Ham have been conceding – for all their problems at the back, Spurs are one of the best attacking sides in the league up against the second worst defence here. This game screams goals too, but Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.45 so from a value point of view I prefer the Spurs bet at 2.22. They can get the job done here in what should be an end-to-end game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham to beat West Ham at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuTtm
