PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews a busy seven match line-up in the Premier League starting with PALACE v MAN CITY at 12.30pm – all games include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CRYSTAL PALACE V MANCHESTER CITY
12.30pm The Premier League fixtures keep coming thick and fast on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! After a hectic week with a full fixture list, we have seven fixtures to go through on Saturday and we start with Crystal Palace hosting Manchester City. We had no shocks midweek so Manchester City still sit in third spot heading into this weekend; Arsenal and Liverpool both played at home against sides in the relegation zone so that was to be expected. This is a game that City should win on paper, and they definitely have the “easiest” fixture this weekend with Arsenal away to Brighton later and Liverpool away to Manchester United on Super Sunday. Brighton and United have hardly been reliable this season though! Crystal Palace lost to Bournemouth on Tuesday night, and that left them in 14th which is basically their level these days – the last time they finished somewhere else apart from 11th to 14th was back in 2015/16 when they finished 15th. They are a classic example of too good to go down, too poor to compete for anything. Dare I say a relegation battle could even spice things up for the fans!
As you would expect, City come into this game as the red-hot favourites. They are trading 1.34 at the time of writing with Crystal palace 12.0 and the draw is 5.7. The gulf in class between the sides here is massive – Palace have an average xG created of 1.13 while for City it’s a whopping 2.18. That’s the best attacking figure in the Premier League while for Palace they are in the bottom five. Only Sheffield United, Nottingham Forest, Luton and Burnley have created less this season, and they are all in the relegation battle. The only major difference is Palace have been a little bit better at the back. City are trading 2.01 to cover the 1.5 Handicap which does make a lot of appeal, as does Both Teams Not To Score 1.83 – effectively a City clean sheet on the way to winning. Palace have taken points off City recently though, City wouldn’t have covered that Handicap in four of the last five meetings – you could even call Palace their bogey team with that record. I’m going to keep stakes small, but I’m happy with the 1.83 on Both Teams Not To Score – Palace have been so limited going forward and City will have all the ball here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CrlMci
ASTON VILLA V BRENTFORD
3pm We have five fixtures kicking off at 3pm this Saturday, and we start with Aston Villa hosting Brentford. Both sides failed to win midweek, but Aston Villa had to play Manchester City away from home and Brentford wouldn’t have been unhappy with draw against Brighton. Brentford have too much quality to get relegated, but they have been hanging around the relegation battle all season – they are just far enough away to not be overly worried but at the same time they have to keep checking the other results! Brentford are going to start this weekend six points away from the relegation zone; they have been closer of course but they’ve put two draws together back-to-back while Luton have lost. Villa are locked in a massive battle with for fourth with Spurs; of course this might not be an issue next season with the possibility of the extra Champions League spot but for the time being it’s a good battle! Villa have a two point advantage at the moment however Spurs have a game in hand which is against Chelsea. There’s still plenty of drama to come no doubt – in fairness drama is never far away with Spurs!
It definitely feels like Villa have lost momentum in recent weeks though. They have dropped plenty of points, and got hammered 4-0 here by Spurs. They could be in a worse position only for Spurs dropping points too. In terms of the Top Four race, this is a must win game for Villa. You simply must be winning games at home to Brentford. Villa come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.74 with Brentford 4.9 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. Brentford managed to keep a clean sheet midweek against Brighton, but in general they have been conceding chances and goals for fun this season. That was only their second clean sheet in their last 21 Premier League games. Over 2.5 goals is shorter than the Villa win – that’s currently trading 1.57 and on balance I prefer the Villa win at the odds. Once again, keen to keep stakes on the smaller side here because obviously Villa haven’t been firing like the start of the season but Brentford are there for the taking.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Aston Villa to beat Brentford at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AvlBre
EVERTON V BURNLEY
3pm We have a massive game in the relegation battle next as Everton host Burnley. Nottingham Forest’s win midweek definitely brings Everton into the conversation again, and Burnley are putting a few good results together. It’s still very likely that Burnley will go down, but they have given themselves a chance – a slim chance but a chance nonetheless. They need to win this game though looking at the table. Everton are seven points ahead of Burnley with a game in hand too; there’s no way Burnley are catching them without winning here. Obviously Burnley could also stay up if Nottingham Forest take their place, but their win midweek puts them six points ahead of Burnley heading into this weekend. That’s not even mentioning the possible result of the points deduction appeal. I would suggest the way things have gone over the past two weeks that the bottom three are now nailed on – that loss for Luton when 3-0 up against Bournemouth was a real killer wasn’t it! Everton have been much better at home this season, but they have been on a very poor run of results! It’s now been 13 Premier League games without a win.
Everton have been “lucky” that the other sides in the relegation battle have been so poor, and six draws on that run have been enough to keep them out of danger. A win here would effectively put the relegation battle to bed for Everton and Burnley in my opinion; the only question will be can Luton catch Forest. We have a very similar market to the above game with Everton 1.73, Burnley 5.2 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. There really isn’t anything positive to say about Burnley this season looking at their stats but I will say they currently have their best run of the season coming into this game. It isn’t much, but it’s now four games without a loss including a draw away to Chelsea. Obviously Everton are struggling for a win, we landed a nice bet on the draw at 3.7 in the Burnley game midweek and I think it’s worth backing it again here at 4.1. This should be a close game and 4.1 looks a nice value position.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 4.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveBur
FULHAM V NEWCASTLE
3pm We have one of the most open market of the weekend next as Fulham host Newcastle. It isn’t quite the most open market – that title goes to Wolves v West Ham – but we do have a very open betting heat. This is actually a very interesting market given Newcastle’s form away from home this season. Fulham are the favourites at 2.54 with Newcastle 2.82 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. Fulham lost on Tuesday night against Nottingham Forest, but that game came away from home and much like Newcastle – they have been a different side at home and away this season. Away from home, they are conceding a massive average xG of 1.72 compared to at home where it’s only 1.35 and they are creating more than that too. It’s a very similar story for Newcastle; their average xG conceded away from home is 1.76. Newcastle have struggled to create quality chances away from home too; their average xG created away is only 1.22 so you can understand why Fulham are the favourites here. There might be a good bit of distance between the sides looking at the table, but there’s only five points.
Home advantage is obviously a big factor here. I wouldn’t say 2.54 jumps off the page on Fulham, but it’s definitely a more appealing position compared to the Newcastle price. Newcastle have been involved in a lot of very high scoring games recently though – Over 2.5 goals has landed in 11 of their last 12 Premier League games – that was actually their 1-1 draw with Everton midweek. Fulham have been loose at the back too, and this game does suggest goals are coming. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.59 while Both Teams To Score is 1.51. I like both bets to be honest; both sides leak chances and they tend to play an open game. Newcastle will fight fire-with-fire if they go behind as well which should open up the game. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet, but I marginally prefer Over 2.5 goals at eight ticks higher. This should be a very entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulNwc
LUTON TOWN V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm It was a tough week for Luton and now this is an absolutely must win game at home to Bournemouth. Obviously they had an exceptionally difficult fixture away to Arsenal on Wednesday night, but with Brentford, Everton and Nottingham Forest all getting points – especially the win for Nottingham Forest – it was a poor week for them. Forest are away to Spurs on Super Sunday while they also have to play Manchester City so all is not lost for Luton but if they are going to have any chance of staying up then they need to win games like this. Bournemouth broke Luton hearts already this season too; Luton were 3-0 up at half-time recently only to lose the game 4-3 in a remarkable turnaround. That game must have really hurt morale hard, and then they had the 1-1 draw with Forest in their next fixture – that was a passage of the season that hurt them at the wrong time. Bournemouth are having a good season by their standards; they are leaking goals and chances for fun, but they are creating more than ever and that’s working for them – they are getting results. Another win midweek means they’ve gone five games unbeaten including four wins.
You can understand why Bournemouth are the odds on favourites! They are trading 1.96 with Luton 3.9 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Bournemouth have been conceding more chances than they are creating away from home, but as I said above they are producing a nice level of quality chances. Their average xG created is just above Manchester United for example; and a little below Aston Villa. They are up against one of the most limited attacking sides in the Premier League here; Luton are one of three sides with an average xG created of under 1.0. They are conceding a lot too; their average xG conceded is as high as 1.75. Bournemouth obviously went through a wobble recently but they come into this game in great form and they looked full of confidence at the weekend too. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but the 1.96 looks worth taking on an away win. It would be a massive setback for Luton hopes of staying up, but they just haven’t been good enough in the big moments.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Bournemouth to beat Luton Town at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutBou
WOLVES V WEST HAM
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Wolves hosting West Ham, and as I mentioned above this is the most open market of the weekend. Wolves are the favourites with home advantage at 2.62 with West Ham 2.84 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. These two are sitting in the top half of the table, indeed West Ham aren’t far off the European spots either – but both have some massive red flags looking at their stats. They both have very low average xG figures, but they are both over-performing in front of goal. You have to give them credit for scoring from awkward angles, but eventually the probability gets you – isn’t that why most of football is numbers driven now. The Hose Mourinho sacking at Roma probably a classic example; poor average xG created figures but seemingly had the full backing of the dressing room and fans at the time. West Ham have been massively over-performing; their average xG created is only 1.16 but their actual goals scored average is 1.61. That’s quite the difference! For Wolves it’s a little lower; their average xG created is 1.17 but their actual is 1.43.
Both sides have been very poor at the back, and they are conceding goals in line with their performance figures. Both of them should be a lot lower in the table if they were scoring goals in line with their performance figures but here we are. You can understand why we have such an open market; it’s hard to have much faith in either side. I wouldn’t say that being at home is a massive advantage for Wolves, and from that point of view you could make the case to have the sides even closer together in the betting for an even more open market. West Ham’s average xG conceded is a whopping 1.78 this season though; only Sheffield United have conceded more chances. With both sides so loose at the back, Over 2.5 goals is definitely an option at 1.73 as is Both Teams To Score at 1.65. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the draw as a popular bet at 3.7 too. I actually couldn’t put anyone off any of those positions, but Both Teams To Score is my choice at 1.65.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolWhu
BRIGHTON V ARSENAL
5.30pm We finish an intriguing Saturday with Brighton hosting Arsenal. As I said above, this is a massive game for Arsenal in the title race. They had an easier fixture on paper midweek compared to Manchester City against Aston Villa, but the tables have turned this time around. City are trading 1.34 against Crystal Palace while Arsenal are 1.66 here to beat Brighton. Liverpool are away to Manchester United on Super Sunday, and they are a bigger price to win than Arsenal so we could see things shaken up in the title race this weekend. The home win here is 5.4 while the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. Brighton have a huge amount of talent going forward, but they have been struggling to win games lately and they have been leaking goals too. They kept a rare clean sheet midweek against Brentford but failed to score themselves too. I feel that they are there for the taking to be honest, and I can see Arsenal being a very popular bet at 1.66. Brighton have an average xG created of 1.70 this season which is the fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League, but they have only four wins from their last 15 Premier League games which isn’t good enough.
They have been very sloppy at the back – their average xG conceded is pretty respectable but they are conceding more goals than they should. The same can’t be said about Arsenal however; they have the best defensive record in the Premier League this season. Their average xG conceded is only 0.90 – Arteta has definitely brought a backbone to this side. They are creating more chances than Brighton too; only Manchester City and Liverpool are actually creating more than Arsenal this season. In years gone by, away fixtures would always hurt Arsenal but that isn’t the case these days. They have been excellent away from home this season, and as I said above this Brighton side are there for the taking in my opinion. The 1.66 is my most confident bet of the day, and I feel we’re getting so much value that it’s worthy of five points.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Arsenal to beat Brighton at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriArl
