PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s three games including the weekend feature SPURS v ARSENAL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOURNEMOUTH V BRIGHTON
2pm It’s a massive Super Sunday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! It’s going to be a huge day in the title race, and it’s fair to say most football fans will be watching the North London Derby from the two 2pm games! We start the day with Bournemouth hosting Brighton with Brighton – not exactly the headline game for Super Sunday but Brighton were in action on Thursday night against Manchester City. They played very poorly, shipped three goals by half-time and someone on X was joking that they “played like they backed City for the title!” Brighton could still sneak into a Europa Conference League spot but they need to start winning games quickly. Obviously it’s unfair to judge them too much on losing to City – they are the best side in the league after all – but they have recently dropped points against Burnley and Brentford. Those are the types of games that Brighton should be winning – they have only won four times from their last 18 games and that just isn’t good enough for a side with their attacking figures. They have the fifth best average xG created figure in the Premier League but can’t even get into the top half of the table.
Bournemouth actually moved above them with a win midweek against Wolves. Bournemouth come into the game as the favourites at 2.32 with Brighton 3.05 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. I definitely couldn’t put anyone off the Bournemouth bet at 2.32, it feels like Brighton are highly likely to be one of those sides that are “on the beach” early as they say towards the end of the season! However, I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here because this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.51 and that looks incredible value here – both sides consistently leak chances at the back. Bournemouth have an average xG conceded of 1.52 while for Brighton it’s better at 1.33 but both sides are conceding over that. We saw Brighton all over the place at the back on Thursday night and they are conceding over 1.5 goals on average per game this season. This is going to be a very open game, and I’d expect both sides to gel together well for a very entertaining game. While everyone might be watching the North London Derby, Overs is a five star bet for me!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BneBri
TOTTENHAM V ARSENAL
2pm Next we have the highlight of the weekend as Spurs host Arsenal in the latest North London Derby! This is always a huge fixture, sometimes it’s more important than others however and this is one of those times. Spurs absolutely need a win in the top four race, while Arsenal absolutely need a win in the title race! A draw is no good to either side, so someone is going to be gutted by the end of the 90 minutes. You have to say we have a very interesting market here with Arsenal trading as the odds on favourites. Arsenal are 1.84 with Spurs 4.3 and the draw is also 4.3 at the time of writing. Arsenal have obviously been very impressive this season but they will have plenty of layers at the price in my opinion – this is always an intense game and generally there isn’t much between the sides. Although Spurs have lost ground on Aston Villa in the Top Four race recently, it has been mainly down to their defensive issues rather than going forward. Arsenal have an average xG created of 1.87 while for Spurs it’s just 0.10 lower at 1.77 – those figures are the third and fourth best attacking figures in the Premier League behind Manchester City and Liverpool.
The major difference between the sides here is their record at the back. Spurs are never far away from a mistake at the back, and that’s cost them countless times this season. Arsenal have an average xG conceded of just 0.90 which is the best defensive figure in the Premier League. Spurs are in the top six on xG figures at the back, but they have been conceding over that and as I said, mistakes are never far away. I can understand the market having Arsenal as the odds on favourites, but it’s hard to argue that the 1.84 is value in my opinion – I couldn’t have them massively shorter away to Spurs. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.53 and that looks a nice position. Overs has collected in five of the last six meetings, and the time it didn’t land was a 2-0 win for Arsenal. Both sides have to go the win here and I feel we’ll see a very end-to-end game – I’m expecting plenty of drama here!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotArl
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V MANCHESTER CITY
4.30pm We finish Super Sunday with Nottingham Forest hosting Manchester City. This is another massive game for both sides for different reasons! Manchester City continue their march towards the title and obviously this is a huge day with Arsenal away to Spurs as well. Nottingham Forest start the weekend just one point above Luton Town in the relegation zone, and their fans will be glued to the Luton game this weekend (Saturday) knowing that anything from this game is pretty unlikely. Manchester City come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.32 with Nottingham Forest 10.5 and the draw is 6.6 at the time of writing. It’s hard to see past a City win here; they put Brighton to the sword without any fuss on Thursday night and Forest have really struggled to create chances this season. Their average xG created is only 1.13 which is the joint-fourth worst attacking figure in the Premier League – they come up against the best attacking side here – City have an average xG of close to double the Forest figure at 2.24! I feel this is a case of how many goals can City score rather than will they win.
Compared to other sides in the relegation fight, Forest have a somewhat reasonable record at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.5 which is basically a mid-table level of form. They are conceding over that however; their actual goals conceded average is 1.76. Wins have obviously been hard to come by for Forest – just two in their last 14 games – that’s not surprising given their stats really. However, what might be an interesting stat here is that Forest have managed to score in 14 of their last 17. Both Teams To Score is trading odds on at 1.89, but it’s hard to back that price with such a gulf in class between the sides. I would have been interested in it at odds against, but it’s hard to argue it offers massive value at 1.89. With Forest conceding so many chances and City on fire at the moment up front, I like City to cover the 1.5 goal Handicap at the same price – that bet looks much better value in my opinion!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotMnc
