16 WINNERS IN 12 DAYS: A one-two for Kalpana (won 5-6) and God’s Window (2nd 13-2) kept Daqman’s winner-a-day sequence going in the Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton last night, but it was a weak version of the tipping strength shown in his 16 winners over the last 12 days.
THE IRISH OAKS VERDICT: Today Daqman is at the Curragh (Irish Oaks) and Newbury for the best of the Flat racing and dabbles in big offers for the annual hurdles-and-chase double at Market Rasen.
NOT CONTENT TO PASS PORT
⭕ 3.40 Curragh (Irish Oaks) Aidan O’Brien has won twice in the last three years at odds on but Ryan Moore chose the ‘outsider’ of his two main hopes today which swung the betting round and kept morning offers for both at odds against.
However, you are reminded that in 2016 Moore chose 4-5 favourite Even Song, which finished only 7th to the O’Brien outsider Seventh Heaven (14-1 SP) under Seamie Heffernan.
Two years earlier, Moore chose Marvellous (8th at 7-2 SP) when stablemates Bracelet (10-1), Tapestry (13-2) and Beyond Brilliance (80-1) finished first, second and fourth!
STATS: Nine out of the last 10 winners were rated 107 or higher, barring that shock Seventh Heaven result (103).
Caught You Looking, Hanalia, Purple Lily and You Got To Me are all on 103 but, on the form that we know, Caught You Looking and Purple Lily need plenty of rain, and Hanalia’s win in the Naas Oaks Trial was in slow time, only Listed level.
The best of the four may be You Got To Me, whose front-running style will have a big impact on the race if the going remains on top; she likes a fight and is tongue-tied to last longer than when fourth to Port Fairy at Royal Ascot.
1 PORT FAIRY Just did enough, first time visored, to beat Lava Stream a neck in the Ribblesdale (good to firm) at Royal Ascot, with You Got To Me (clear two out) two lengths or so further back, fourth.
Ryan Moore admits that it could be very close between the two O’Brien fillies. His job is to pick what he thinks is the best; our job is to pick what we think is value and, in choosing Content, he has created value in Port Fairy, with his own mount a ready-made saver.
2 CONTENT A 40-1 flop in the Coronation Stakes, pulling too hard and with Ryan Moore on the runner-up Opera Singer, who could not cope with the progressive Porta Fortuna.
Content fared better under Moore when third in the Pretty Polly, in which the first two were an older filly and a mare, both giving the three-year-old 12lb.
3 YOU GOT TO ME It was this one’s 115-rated stablemate Bluestocking who beat Content a good four lengths in the Pretty Polly. Best each-way.
Betdaq Betting Exchange Big value (104% total offers) this morning: 5.2 Content, 9.9 Port Fairy, 10.0 You Got To Me
HAVAH GO ON SUMMER HORSE
⭕ 2.40 Market Rasen (Summer Hurdle) Only one favourite has won this in the decade, with outsiders scoring at 22-1, 25-1 and 40-1, two of them in the last three seasons, all three on good ground.
Trying to pick the day a David Pipe horse wins a race like this, you need better than the 8.5 offer about morning favourite Manuelito. A four-year-old winning this is an equally rare occasion.
The other one backed in the week is Black Poppy. But an eight-year-old with 11st 12lb who has been absent 207 days from a stable without a Jumps winner in 147 days?
Last Spring and into summer, Kihavah was on a roll, winner three times on the Flat and and here at Market Rasen. He seems to have been primed for this in recent Flat races. BETDAQ 6.7
Enthused has also been seen on the Flat recently. Harry Cobden has been booked for one who won four out of five last summer into autumn, all for claimers and amateurs. Yet 41.0 offers.
Dan Skelton is currently 0-14 and Mostly Sunny takes a leap of three grades since he scored at Southwell. Maxcel beat him at Uttoxeter and they are set to dead-heat at the revised weights.
Take It Easy (15.5 in the BETDAQ offers) seemed back to form the last day, third in the Swinton at Haydock behind Black Poppy but now 11lb better off.
BETDAQ TOUCH! 16.0 OFFERS
⭕ 3.15 Market Rasen (Summer Plate) Francky Du Berlais won this summer chase back to back in 2021-22 but ran poorly last year off 140. He’s shed a few pounds in the handicap but is now aged 11.
Statuario’s penchant is small fields at Perth, while the Skeltons (Boombawn) are currently not firing, and Harry Cobden is finding out whether Sure Touch can follow up after a break on the hat-trick which shot him 16lb up the ratings.
Hunter-chaser Yccs Portocervo and Vintage Fizz were a neck apart when one-two in the Trial for this Plate a month or so back over the CD.
The winner was ‘incredibly game,’ according to Sam Twiston-Davies and the Martaline grey could complete a four-timer, with Vintage Fizz needing a left-handed track. BETDAQ value 16 Sure Touch, 20.0 Yccs Portocervo
FOREST LOOKS SET TO SCORE
⭕ 3.00 Newbury (Hackwood Stakes) In the absence of Fortune Cookie James’s Delight, I reckon this is between two other second-season sprinters, Elite Status and Commonwealth Cup runner-up, Lake Forest, at BETDAQ 6.7.
Elite Status was a Fortune Cookie early on but has missed two rounds of updating so we can’t claim him, nor would want a 20-point confidence stake on him.
In fact, the first two (Relief Rally was second) have been missing these 63 days since that meeting in May and may have been overtaken by events.
Last year’s Hackwood one-two, Commanche Falls and Diligent Harry, make up strong opposition by the older horses along with Haydock Sprint winner, Regional, who was well beaten by Commanche Falls in the 2022 Stewards Cup.
MISS CAN BE HIT FOR HANNON
⭕ 3.35 Newbury (Super Sprint) Richard Hannon has had four winners in the decade, sneaking in three between 8st 5lb and 8st 10lb.
Another stat worth your attention is that every winner was drawn 13 or higher, and Hannon has bagged last year’s winning jockey, Tom Marquand, for Miss Collada (8st 9lb drawn 17)
Another filly, It Ain’t Two (15), was beaten at Sandown by a classy Archie Watson juvenile, Aesterius, and Watson now saddles Vingegaard, fifth in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot but drawn 4 here. BETDAQ value: 4.7 It Ain’t Two, 9.3 Miss Collada
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.40 Market Rasen (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 3.5pts win TAKE IT EASY
BET 2pts to win 12 KIHAVAH
3.00 Newbury (win 20, nap)
BET 3.5pts win LAKE FOREST
3.15 Market Rasen (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 3.25pts win SURE TOUCH
BET 2.5pts win YCCS PORTOCERVO
3.35 Newbury (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 6pts win MISS COLLADA
BET 3.25pts to win 12 IT AINT TWO
3.40 Curragh (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 5.5pts win PORT FAIRY
BET 3pts to win 12 CONTENT
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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