MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews JUVENTUS v COMO and VILLARREAL v ATLETICO MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
JUVENTUS V COMO
7.45pm Monday night football from Europe comes from Serie A and La Liga on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week. What a way to start the week with Juventus and Atletico Madrid involved! We kick off the night with Juventus hosting Serie A new boys Como. I’m sure we’ve all seen the photos of the Como stadium as it looks incredible – if you haven’t you should check it out – their home games are definitely going to be a bucket list trip for European football fans. They have a very difficult start to the season here though away to Juventus, and the home side come into the game as the red-hot favourites. Juventus are trading 1.35 at the time of writing with Como 12.0 and the draw is 5.4. That 1.35 is the shortest price of Matchday 1 in Serie A, and it’s fair to say anything bar a comfortable home win here will be a massive shock. Como were dealt an early blow already this season with Varane suffering a knee injury on his debut in the Coppa Italia. They crashed out on penalties in the first round; it was always a big gamble signing Varane with his injury history.
Obviously the only goal for Como this season will be staying in Serie A. It’s going to be a very tough battle for them, and to be honest their results away to the likes of Juventus aren’t going to have a major impact. How they get on against mid-table sides and down will decide their faith. Juventus have a big season coming up; they were totally blown away by Inter Milan in the title race last season, and they went on one of the worst runs after falling out of the race. They finished the season with just three wins from their final 17 games – they struggled going forward and finished the season with an average xG created of only 1.42 which was only the sixth best attacking figure. They were rock solid at the back though, and they conceded less than one goal per game. They finished the season with an average xG conceded at home of only 1.08 too. It’s obviously hard to see past a Juventus win here, but I feel they can keep a clean sheet on the way to winning – Both Teams Not To Score is worth backing at 1.68.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvCom
VILLARREAL V ATLETICO MADRID
8.30pm We move over to La Liga to finish Monday night and we have an intriguing fixture as Villarreal host Atletico Madrid. Villarreal had a very disappointing season last time out finishing outside of the European spots down in eighth. They had almost become a banker for European football under Unai Emery, and it must have been painful watching him take Aston Villa to a Champions League place in the Premier League – especially because when he left Villarreal to take over Aston Villa were closer to a relegation fight under Steven Gerrard! Although Villarreal would have felt “unlucky” to miss out on Europe by one spot, they were actually pretty lucky to finish eighth if you look at their under-lining numbers. They finished the season with an average xG created of 1.36 and massively over-performed in front of goal with an actual average of 1.71. That definitely masked their issues at the back because their average xG conceded was 1.69 and they performed in line with that, conceding the same amount of goals they scored for an average of 1.71 conceded too. That average xG conceded of 1.69 was actually the worst defensive figure in La Liga last season – that’s a massive red flag coming into this season.
Atletico Madrid will also be hoping to improve from last season. They finished in fourth and were never in the title race – they ended up 19 points behind Real Madrid at the top of the table. They finished the season with the fourth highest average xG created, so they can’t complain. They really struggled with their performances away from home – they were marginally conceding more chances than they were creating away from home, and creating much less compared to at home too. It’s easy to see why they aren’t trading odds on here! Atletico come into the game as favourites at 2.12 with Villarreal 3.45 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. I feel we’ll see some action in front of goal here – Atletico conceded a lot of chances and goals away from home last season, while for Villarreal they were clearly all over the place at the back. Over 2.5 goals is 1.73 but I marginally prefer Both Teams To Score at 1.65.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VllAlt
