SANDERSON FARMS: While several of the sport’s bigger names are in Scotland at the Dunhill, the PGA Tour resumes its fall schedule in Mississippi, where a field full of strivers, young up-and-comers, and veteran journeymen will look to change their careers with a victory. This tournament was an “opposite field” event for many years, held at the same time as a Major or another big tourney, but for the past few years it has been a standalone event that carries with it all the benefits of winning on the PGA Tour — Masters exemption, invitation to Kapalua for the January cash grab, two years of playing privileges on Tour, etc. In its own way, this tournament is bigger than the Dunhill. Lives could be changed in Mississippi this week.
The venue, Country Club of Jackson in the Magnolia state’s capital city, has played host to this event for the past decade and generally puts up a pretty decent fight, with the winning score usually hovering in the 18 to 20-under range. It might not be the U.S. Open, but it’s not a race to 30-under, either — a par-72 that measures some 7,460 yards from all the way back, the CC of Jackson is tight in spots and the sticky Bermuda rough should be avoided. That said, the greens are large, the par-5s are easy, and there isn’t much severity off the tee. It’s a course that can be conquered by a variety of different styles, and in the last few years we’ve seen winners of this event range from short-and-straight types like Ryan Armour to bona fide bombers like Cameron Champ and last year’s champion, Luke List.
List went off at 60.0 but he’s been struggling lately and can therefore be had at a healthy 140.0 this time around, which isn’t bad for a guy who has a history of snapping long dry spells with sudden bursts of greatness. Youngster Nick Dunlap heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 23.0, and he’s joined up top by the likes of Keith Mitchell (29.0) and former champion Mackenzie Hughes at (30.0). The favorites have not historically fared well at this event, however, and I’m not sure the shorter-odds guys offer much value this week. With that being said, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Eric Cole (48.0)- Since breaking through on the PGA Tour two years ago after a decade-long grind on golf’s mini-tours, Cole has been circling around a win, racking up nine top-7 finishes over the past two seasons, including a pair of runner-ups. He hasn’t closed the deal yet, but it’s only a matter of time for this guy and this week offers him an excellent opportunity: a field devoid of top players and a Bermuda-covered course in the Southeast that’s very similar to the type of golf Cole grew up on in Florida. He’s had some great results on southern Bermuda courses in his brief career, including a runner-up at last year’s Honda Classic and a T3 at the RSM Classic. And given the fact that he’s had a T7 and a T18 in his last four starts, there shouldn’t be many concerns about his form. Cole should be backed enthusiastically at a price like 47.0.
Matt McCarty (49.0)- Right around the same price point as Cole you’ll find Matt McCarty, and if you’re not yet familiar with his name, you soon will be. The 26-year-old from Arizona has been stuck on the Korn Ferry Tour for the past couple of years, but those days are over — with three wins in his past eight starts, he’s officially earned a “battlefield promotion” to the big tour, and with the way he’s been playing lately, logging a runner-up and a T5 in the past two months in addition to those three victories, you have to like his chances in a spot like this. Given that there are no Ryder Cuppers or major champions in the field this week and the galleries won’t be huge, I don’t expect those PGA Tour nerves to strike — it should be business as usual for a guy like McCarty. And with the way he’s been rolling lately, “business as usual” means birdies in bunches. He’s worth a bet at nearly 50/1.
Lucas Glover (94.0)- Glover endured a rough stretch over the summer, which is why his price is so big here, but after a month off he returned to competitive golf at the Procore Championship three weeks ago and played quite well, breaking par in all four rounds and finishing T13. Country Club of Jackson is right up his alley — a Bermuda-covered layout without too much stress off the tee — so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he has a nice record in this event, with three top-25s in seven career appearances, including a T5 in 2016. Glover has demonstrated conclusively that he knows how to close the deal on Sunday, so if he gets a sniff of contention over the weekend he’ll be dangerous. He feels like a good value at this price.
