NFL WEEK 10: This Week 10 got started with a Thursday night thriller in Baltimore, as Lamar Jackson rallied the Ravens from a 21-7 third-quarter hole to a 35-34 win over division rival Cincinnati. The Bengals found the end zone with under a minute remaining to cut the Baltimore lead to 1 and elected to go for the 2-point conversion and the win, but Joe Burrow’s pass to tight end Tanner Hudson fell incomplete, sealing the victory for the Ravens. Baltimore is now in firm control of the AFC North at 7-3, while Cincinnati falls to 4-6 and will struggle to make the playoffs.
Speaking of the playoff picture, it’s a jumbled mess in both conferences and, with no team sitting at worse than 2-7, hope still flickers even in the league’s darkest corners. A lot can happen over the next six weeks. For now, though, let’s just focus on what’s going to happen on Sunday. Here are my thoughts:
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (ATL -3.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: New Orleans +3.5 at 1.96
Atlanta sits two games clear of the pack in the NFC South and could all but eliminate division rival New Orleans from playoff contention with a win here, but the Superdome has traditionally been a house of horrors for the Falcons and the Saints will be playing for a new head coach this week after Dennis Allen was dismissed on Monday. It’s always difficult to predict how a team will react to a coach’s firing — sometimes they come out flat, but sometimes a big shakeup can sharpen the focus and pull a team together. Interim coach Darren Rizzi is supposedly quite popular in the New Orleans locker room, which is a big reason why he got the job, and the fact that the Saints are playing a rival at home will help with motivation and focus I believe. Atlanta will be without top receiver Drake London in this game due to injury, which should lessen the impact of New Orleans losing top corner Marshon Lattimore, who was traded to Washington this week. While it’s difficult to throw money at a team riding a 7-game losing streak, the Saints offense has showed signs of life now that Derek Carr getting his sea legs after missing extended time, and when these teams met back in Week 4 the New Orleans defense was able to stymie the Falcons offense and hold them without a touchdown. I think the Saints are a sneaky good bet here as 3.5-point home ‘dogs.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -7.5, 41.5)
Recommendation: Kansas City -7.5 at 2.02
Don’t look now, but the NFL’s only undefeated team happens to be the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champs, and though they’ve failed to cover in their last two games as favorites of more than a touchdown, it’s also true that the Chiefs have won five straight games by 6 points or more and the offense has produced their three highest-scoring performances of the season in the team’s past three games. This undoubtedly has something to do with the re-emergence of Travis Kelce as a potent weapon and the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins, who has immediately established himself as the best receiver on the roster. The Denver defense seems to always put up a good fight against Mahomes, but can they shut him down and keep the Chiefs in check the entire game? That’s pretty much what it’s going to take, because I do not expect rookie QB Bo Nix and the Broncos offense to have much success at all against a Chiefs defense that excels at disrupting the passer. I expect multiple turnovers from Nix in this game en route to a double-digit Kansas City victory.
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals (NY -1.5, 45.5)
Recommendation: New York -1.5 at 1.91
Did the Jets finally turn a corner with the much-needed victory over Houston last week? Judging from this line — a 3-6 New York team favored on the road over a 5-4 team that’s riding a 3-game win streak — some people apparently think so. I do believe the Jets are better than their record indicates, especially with Davante Adams now in the fold and becoming a primary part of the offense, but my bet here has more to do with an Arizona squad that is surely the league’s weakest 5-win team. The Cards have a minus-7 point differential, because when they win, they’ve mostly been squeaking by — prior to last week’s win over Chicago their three previous victories had come by a combined 4 points — and when they lose, it’s often ugly, like the 28-point loss to Washington or the 21-point loss to Green Bay. The Arizona defense can be exploited in the secondary and in fact only the lowly Carolina Panthers are worse on third down, with the Cardinals allowing opponents to convert better than 48% of the time. That’s bad news against a vet like Aaron Rodgers and the league’s best WR tandem, and I expect the New York offense to have a big outing in this one. Count me among those who think the Jets are simply a better team than Arizona right now, regardless of what the records say.
Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (DET -3.5, 38.5)
Recommendation: Houston +3.5 at 1.91
The Lions are rolling and are a popular public bet this week as a 3.5-point road favorite in Houston, where the Texans have yet to lose this season. Detroit will benefit from the return of deep threat Jameson Williams, who was suspended for the past two games, but the Texans should benefit even more from the return of second-year speedster Tank Dell and especially Nico Collins, who came off of Injured Reserve this week and is expected to suit up. With C.J. Stroud now having nearly all his weapons back, I expect a much different Houston offense than the one we’ve seen these past couple of weeks. The Lions have had issues in the secondary and only one NFC team, Tampa Bay, has surrendered more passing yards, so this is a golden opportunity for Stroud to return to form in a big way and make some plays downfield. The Houston defense is much better in the back end, ranking third in the league in pass yards allowed, so this will be a challenge for Jared Goff and the explosive Lions passing attack. I like Houston here in what feels like a tough spot for the visiting Lions.
