SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v LAZIO and ATLETICO MADRID v SEVILLA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V LAZIO
7.45pm We have a wonderful Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with two cracking fixtures from Serie A and La Liga! We start the action over in Serie A as Napoli host Lazio only days after the sides met in the Coppa Italia – it’s always funny how the fixture throws out these situations every season! That time around Lazio had home advantage, so maybe we can’t read too much into that result but a 3-1 win is impressive and they were well backed before the start. We had an open market on Thursday night, but this time around Napoli are the odds on favourites; Napoli are trading 1.96 with Lazio 4.6 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. Napoli lead the way at the top of the table coming into this weekend, but Lazio aren’t far off them sitting in fifth only four points behind – it’s an entertaining title race in Italy this season! Both sides have been playing some excellent football – as I said on Thursday, it’s hard to begrudge Napoli scoring from a few awkward angles this season after finishing in mid-table last time while having the best attacking figure.
Napoli have been over-performing in front of goal and at the back this season. In fairness, they do have the third best defensive figure with an average xG conceded of 1.07, but they have conceded very few goals so that has covered up the fact that they have an average xG created of 1.3 which is a mid-table figure. Lazio have actually creating more chances – they have the third best attacking figure in Serie A this season and they are only 0.01 behind Napoli on defensive figures. I felt we’d see a very close game on Thursday between the sides in Coppa Italia and that the draw was value at 3.3. With the draw trading 3.6 here, it’s a very tempting bet again. It didn’t work out on Thursday night, but I do feel it’s worth a small bet again here. The stats suggest a low scoring and close game, but Under 2.5 goals doesn’t make massive appeal to me here and I’d rather have a position on the draw.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NpiLaz
ATLETICO MADRID V SEVILLA
8pm Next we move over to La Liga to finish Sunday night as Atletico Madrid host Sevilla. This used to be a huge game in the top four battle but Sevilla have been miles off the pace for the last few years. The top four was on lock in La Liga for many years, but then Sevilla were involved in the relegation battle in 2022/23 which was amazing viewing really before they finished the season strongly. Considering they won the Europa League that season, I felt that season was just a random blip – they kept Champions League football and they’d get back into the top four. That hasn’t happened at all! They finished down in 14th last season, and now they come into this weekend sitting in 11th – they’ve turned into a mid-table side. It’s actually difficult to see them getting back into the top four anytime soon given the lack of European football and the fact that situation won’t attract good quality players. Their average xG created this season is 1.32 which is pretty average – not an impressive figure. However, it’s 0.02 ahead of Atletico Madrid so maybe this fixture won’t be as straightforward as it looks on paper!
While Atletico haven’t exactly been creating a tonne of chances this season, they do deserve credit for grinding out as many results as they have. Four wins in a row have come at a good time when Barcelona and Real Madrid have dropped points, and while you don’t fancy them getting too involved in the title race, they are hanging around for the time being. As expected, Atletico Madrid come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.44 with Sevilla 9.2 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. I fancy Atletico to get the job done here, but the 1.44 doesn’t jump off the page as very good value in my opinion. Both sides have the exact same defensive figure with an average xG conceded of 1.19 – Atletico have been over-performing here and Sevilla under-performing. I was slightly surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as the favourite, and I feel there is value in Under 2.5 goals at 2.08 in what should be a reasonably tight game. Neither side are creating a host of chances, and Atletico have been exceptionally solid at the back at home this season too.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtiSev
