BACK-TO-BACK NAPS AT 11-4 AND 2-1: Daqman did it again yesterday, as he got into gear for another super Saturday. He followed up his Thursday nap, Royal Charm (WON 2-1), with hot pick Postscript (WON 11-4).
77 POINTS PROFIT: With three winners on Thursday (he also gave Another For Joe WON 11-4 and Royal Empire WON 5-4), and two yesterday – the other one was Ronaldinho WON 4-1 – he has picked up 77 points profit in just two betting days.
SATURDAY JACKPOT BETS: Daqman has decided to play up his winnings today, raising his stakes to jackpot level so that each bet at Beverley, Chester and Sandown would win 30 points if successful.
2.30 Chester: Everything falls right for Rosslyn Castle: a small horse who comes from behind, and has won at Chester from the 12 stall, is tucked away here in 14, and has similar ground conditions.
If you delete his run on firm, he should be nearly favourite here, having finished four lengths in front of Martin Chuzzlewit that day at Chester in May, Martin having run a blinder at the Ebor meeting.
The worries are threefold: original plans for Rosslyn Castle (9.2 on BETDAQ as I write) were the Great Voltigeur and the St Leger; he’s clearly not been that progressive at home.
Secondly, Richard Fahey’s Area Fifty One (7.2) put up an even better performance at York, fifth in the Ebor itself. Third fear is Communicator (5.8), runaway Chester winner only recently.
The snag with Area Fifty One and Communicator is that neither has been fancied to do what they did: ‘Fifty One’ was, in fact, 25-1 for the Ebor; Communicator won nine lengths like an odds-on shot but was 11-2 and is raised 9lb.
Richard Fahey says of the Ebor in today’s trade paper: ‘It wasn’t the strongest-run race I’ve ever since and doesn’t prove for sure that my horse stays.’
Never Can Tell likes Chester but is a stone higher than for his last win there. Tominator and Midsummer Sun are also high in the handicap.
3.05 Chester: At the back end of the year, the Chester low-draw bias is often reversed, presumably because the inside rail is overused, particularly in the rainy season (we call it ‘summer’).
Stalls 11 (twice), 12 and 13 have won this in four of the last five seasons, so Galician (in 10) and Strictly Silver (13) are at the front of the market.
The favourite as I write, Verse Of Love (8.0 on BETDAQ this morning), will appreciate stall 3, as a front-runner. He’s up two grades and 6lb higher than for his class-4 Epsom win but will like the track and his claimer improves his chance at the weights.
Galician has been hard to win with in class 2, staying on over 6f yet still short of pace a grade lower over 7f. Strictly Silver (8.2 as I write) was run out of it at the finish at York but at least that was a leap forward from previous form.
All three at the front of the market have age, and therefore potential improvement, on their side; but we’ve said that half a dozen times about Bannock.
3.25 Sandown: Three-year-olds have won the last six renewals, two of them trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who saddles Dank.
The last six winners had all won a Listed contest; Dank was second in one last time out, whereas Falls Of Lora has won one over today’s course and distance.
The connection is that ‘Lora’, giving 6lb, pipped Ladys First a head that day, and it was Ladys First who tonked Dank by threeparts of a length at levels. That gives Dank work to do to beat both today and, at 9.6 Falls Of Lora, I’m willing to forgive her bad run last time out: ‘just wasn’t her day,’ said her jockey afterwards.
4.00 Sandown: Two runs, two wins, for Luca Cumani in the last four years. Also in favour of Fulgur is that quality horses win year on year: nothing lower than his position in today’s handicap has won this in the decade.
But one of those below Fulgur is seemingly-better-fancied stablemate Indian Jack, though he’s never won this far and, in fact, scored only once on turf and that on firm ground.
Fulgur beat the top-weight Mijhaar last year in receipt of 7lb. He now gets 12lb and should be ready to run well after a trip too far recently.
The lightly-raced Valiant is also low in the handicap and has tried a Group 3 but, at only 7.0, he would be more interesting if the rains came.
4.15 Beverley Bullet: Three-year-olds are 11113, with last year’s sole second-season runner beaten by the ground. Ponty Acclaim can maintain the run.
She is nicely drawn and ran an excellent race at York, beaten little more than a length giving weight to all the older horses in front of her over 5.5f. This stiff ‘five’ is perfect. So is 10.5 on the BETDAQ. I shall bite the bullet and make her my nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS
* ALL WIN-30: All Daqman’s bets today are raised to jackpot level, each one staked to win 30 points, excepting any ‘saver’, which is a bet to cover the stakes on the main selections.
BET: 4.8pts win AREA FIFTY ONE, 3.6pts win ROSSLYN CASTLE, and 1.75pts win (stakes saver) COMMUNICATOR (2.30 Chester)
BET: 4.2pts win VERSE OF LOVE and 4.1pts win STRICTLY SILVER (3.05 Chester)
BET: 3.4pts win FALLS OF LORA (3.25 Sandown)
BET: 5.3pts win INDIAN JACK, 2pts win FULGUR and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) VALIANT (4.00 Sandown)
BET: 3.1pts win (nap) PONTY ACCLAIM (4.15 Beverley)
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