DFB-POKAL SEMI-FINAL WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews BAYER LEVERKUSEN V BAYERN MUNICH with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V BAYERN MUNICH
7.45pm We have a huge midweek clash from Europe on Wednesday night on Betdaq Betting Exchange as Bayer Leverkusen host Bayern Munich in the DFB-Pokal Semi-Final! ! This is the heavyweight clash of the last four – Germany’s two most decorated clubs of recent years, but the gulf in class this season has been massive. Obviously Xabi Alonso moved on and Leverkusen sold their best players, but you could say this season has been quite easy for Bayern. For Leverkusen, they had quite a dramatic start sacking Erik ten Hag so early in the season too, they have recovered well from that but they were never going to touch Bayern in the Bundesliga.
In a once off Semi-Final tie though, they have a chance with a place in the Berlin Final on 23rd May on the line. The winner faces VfB Stuttgart or SC Freiburg, so it’s fair to say most football fans will be expecting the winner of this Semi-Final to win the competition. Bayern arrive here on cloud nine – they just knocked Real Madrid out of the Champions League and Vincent Kompany’s side clinched their 35th Bundesliga title in front of their own supporters, beating VfB Stuttgart 4-2 at the Allianz to confirm what has been apparent for months – this Bayern side are simply in a class of their own in Germany this season. It has been a record breaking campaign too.
They have now surpassed their own previous Bundesliga scoring record, netting over 105 goals in the league alone. At one point earlier this season they broke AC Milan’s record for the best start in Europe’s top five leagues, winning their opening 16 matches. Penny for Leverkusen thoughts watching on this season; it already feels so long ago that they famously went the entire league season unbeaten. A penny for Xabi Alonso’s thoughts too; the move to Real Madrid was a disaster for him. Leverkusen still have a tonne of work to do this season; , they sit outside the Bundesliga top four fighting just to secure Champions League football for next season. You could say this isn’t even their most important game of the season given the run-in to come. A loss at the weekend left them four points off the top four.
The underlying Bundesliga numbers this season tell the full story of the gulf between these sides. Bayern’s average xG created of 2.32 is the best attacking figure in the Bundesliga by a considerable distance – no other side comes close. Their average xG conceded of just 1.06 is also the best defensive figure in Germany. Those are numbers that belong to a genuinely exceptional side, and they are reflected in the extraordinary goals tally that has rewritten the record books this season. Leverkusen’s numbers are respectable, but they are clearly a step below. Their average xG created of 1.70 is the fourth best attacking figure in the Bundesliga, and their average xG conceded of 1.40 is broadly mid-table defensively. Those are solid figures for a top-half side, but against Bayern’s attacking machine, that defensive number is a concern.
It’s no surprise that Bayern come into the game as the odds on favourites given the sheer dominance of their season. Bayern are trading 1.57 with Bayer Leverkusen 5.4 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. It’s hard to argue with the logic that this Bayern side are simply too good – but this is a cup Semi-Final, at Leverkusen’s ground, with the hosts having everything to play for and the sides did draw 1-1 here recently in the Bundesliga. Leverkusen did finish that game with the higher xG figure too. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.4 so obviously the market is expecting goals, that is a tempting bet but I do feel Bayern offer more value at 1.56 at the bigger price. They have been superb this season.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich to beat Bayer Leverkusen at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DFBaBa
