PREMIER LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Striker previews BURNLEY v MANCHESTER CITY with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BURNLEY V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm The midweek action from the Premier League continues on Betdaq Betting Exchange on Wednesday night! Manchester City travel to Turf Moor to face Burnley, and while on the face it of it’s a clash everyone will be expecting City to win, it’s become one of the most significant away days of City’s season as they bid to go top of the Premier League for the first time since August. City faced Arsenal on Super Sunday in what many billed as the defining game of the Premier League season. Arsenal came in with a six point lead but with cracks clearly visible; who else but Erling Haaland with the goal to give City the three points.
This is now City’s game in hand, and a chance to go top. It’s no surprise that City come into the game as the red-hot favourites – Pep Guardiola’s men are trading as short as 1.18 with Burnley 19.0 and the draw is 9.4 at the time of writing. Arsenal fans will obviously be praying for an upset, but Burnley have been poor this season. Their average xG created of 1.08 is the worst attacking figure in the entire Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.84 is the worst defensive figure too – not much confidence for Arsenal fans there! City’s average xG created of 1.75 is the joint-best attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.13 is the second best defensive figure.
Burnley are on paper, by every metric, the weakest side in the Premier League despite being ahead of Wolves in the table. They are nailed on to go back down. City beat them 5-1 earlier in the season at the Etihad and have not lost to Burnley since 2015, winning 14 successive meetings against the Clarets. There is absolutely no reason to expect anything other than another comfortable City victory here. I think this is a case of how many goals can City score rather than will they actually win – and that’s an important question too given the title might be decided on goal difference too.
Neither side face any really big teams on the run in. Manchester City’s remaining fixtures are: Burnley here), FA Cup Semi-Final v Southampton (25th April), Everton (A, 4th May), Brentford (H, 9th May), Bournemouth (A, 17th May), Aston Villa (H, 24th May) plus a possible rescheduled Crystal Palace game still to be confirmed). Arsenal’s remaining fixtures are: Newcastle (H, 25th April), Champions League Semi-Final v Atletico Madrid (29th April & 5th May), Fulham (H, 2nd May), West Ham (A, 10th May), Burnley (H, 17th May), Crystal Palace (A, 24th May). On paper, they both have run-ins that they will be odds on for every game, so it could easily go to goal difference.
It’s hard to see past a City here win, but at 1.18 we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Guardiola’s men are going to want to make a statement here, and I feel that they can cover the handicap on the way to winning. They are trading 1.51 to cover the 1.5 goal handicap which looks value in my opinion. Burnley have conceded such a high xG figure this season and City need to drop the hammer on Arsenal here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Burnley at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLBuMc
