NFL WEEK 5: This Week 5 kicked off with an unexpected thriller on Thursday night, as the San Francisco 49ers pulled out a 26-23 overtime win over division rival Los Angeles in a game that featured nearly 750 passing yards and an improbable goal-line fumble which ended up costing the Rams the game. It was high drama, which was quite a surprise considering the Niners were down several starters, including QB Brock Purdy and their top two wideouts, and entered the game as an 8.5-point underdog.
The Sunday slate features 12 games, including an early London start, so we’ve got approximately 14 consecutive hours of football on tap. It’s the type of Sunday we pine for all summer.
Of course, for it to truly be a special day we need to do some good work with these bets, right? Opportunity abounds, and though we were just 2-2 on our four selections last week (still bitter about Indy blowing that cover!), we’re a very tidy 11-5 so far this season so I hope you’ve been following along. Let’s get to this week’s plays:
Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns (MIN -3.5, 36) *LONDON*
Recommendation: Cleveland +3.5 at 1.91
As you would anticipate with a total like 36, there is not expected to be much offense in this game. The Vikings will be going with backup Carson Wentz at quarterback and he’ll be playing behind an o-line missing three starters, while the Browns, who are averaging just 14 points per game, will be giving rookie QB Dillon Gabriel his first career start after head coach Kevin Stefanski decided this week be bench Joe Flacco due to ineffectiveness. Gabriel is sure to have his hands full against Brian Flores’s defense, but unlike Flacco he’s got great mobility as is a real threat to hurt you with his legs, and that should help the offense stay afloat. The Vikes can expect a heavy dose of Cleveland’s rookie RB Quinshon Judkins, who has exploded onto the scene over the past couple of games and looks the part of a top-tier back. The real under-the-radar star of this Browns team, however, is the defense, a unit that leads the NFL in yards allowed by a wide margin. Myles Garrett and Co. will spend most of the game in Carson Wentz’s lap, and we know Wentz gets a bit mistake-prone when pressured. The Browns just may win this one outright, but I’ll happily take those 3.5 points.
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -4, 43.5)
Recommendation: Denver +4 at 1.91
The Eagles are the lone remaining unbeaten team in the NFC, but they’re not without their warts: the passing game has been downright ugly, producing fewer yards (138 ypg) than every team but the winless Titans, and the defense has been pretty average, ranking in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed and surrendering 4.8 yards per rush. Denver will likely use the crisp short passing game that has become Sean Payton’s signature to methodically attack the Eagles defense, while on the other side of the ball the excellent Broncos secondary will make things difficult for the floundering Philly passing attack. The Broncos are second in the NFL in points allowed, surrendering just 16.8 ppg, and I have a feeling they’re going to turn this one into an ugly, low-scoring rock fight. Gimme the points.
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers (MIA -1, 44)
Recommendation: Carolina moneyline (to win) at 2.01
Both of these teams are off to 1-3 starts, but it feels like they’re moving in different directions. The Panthers suffered an ugly season-opening loss to Jacksonville and lost to Arizona in Week 2, though they looked much better in that game. Then, in the home opener, they blanked the Atlanta Falcons 30-0, a stunning result that has reset expectations in Carolina. Now, for the season’s second home game, the Miami Dolphins come limping into town having just lost their best player, All-Pro WR Tyreek Hill, to a brutal leg injury in last week’s game against the Jets. That’s bad news for a Dolphins offense that has been stuck in neutral all season on account of the erratic, uneven play of QB Tua Tagovailoa, who seems closer to retirement than the Pro Bowl despite being just 27 years old. Tua simply hasn’t been the same player since his hip injury in 2023, and if he sustains one more concussion he may start pissing into flowerpots. The Dolphins as a whole feel like a team that missed their window and are in the midst of a slow but steady unraveling that will end with the firing of coach Mike McDaniel and a restructuring of the roster. They have no business being road favorites in this spot.
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals (DET -10, 49.5)
Recommendation: Detroit -10 at 1.89
Some people have a rule about never laying a double-digit number in the NFL, and if that’s you, fine. I’m not going to argue. However, abiding by that rule means you miss out on lucrative opportunities to bet against truly putrid teams like these Bengals. Without Joe Burrow at the controls, Cincinnati is rudderless on offense, and backup Jake Browning seems to be regressing and losing confidence with each game. And the defense has been an even bigger problem, ranking 30th in the NFL in yards allowed and surrendering a staggering 29.8 ppg. It’s difficult to imagine this Cincy D even slowing down an explosive Detroit offense that leads the league in scoring at 34.3 ppg. Yes, 10 points is a lot to give, but the Lions win by huge margins all the time, like last week, when they beat Cleveland by 24, or Week 2, when they beat Chicago by 31. Did I mention that the Bengals have lost their last two games by a combined score of 76-13? Detroit will likely cover the 10 in the first half. This one won’t be close.
