CESAREWITCH PREVIEW: After six out of seven, can the Irish win Saturday’s Newmarket Cesarewitch yet again? Daqman looks at the stats and facts today and tomorrow, with a final selection on the day for a win-50 bull’s-eye bet.
WAIT FOR CESAREWITCH DRAW
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket, Saturday (Cesarewitch) STATS: TRAINERS: Six out of the last seven have been won by Irish raiders, including a Willie Mullins hat-trick (2018-20).
It came from all sections of the handicap: 8st 6lb, 9st 2lb and 9st 7lb, the highest winning weight in the decade.
Two were outsiders at 10-1 and 20-1 but, when Great White Shark gobbled up the opposition in 2020 to complete the Mullins’ treble, he was 9-2 favourite.
DRAW: 19, 20 (twice), 22, 23 and 24 have won six of the last nine, with low numbers (3, 6, 9) having a spell between 2021 and 2023. There seems to be little chance of any meat in the sandwich between high and low.
AGE: Evenly divided between 4, 5, 6 and 7 but even a 10-year-old has won recently, among hurdlers or ex-jumpers to score consecutively in the last seven seasons.
SHELLEY PEAS
⭕ 2.05 Ludlow Sadly it was one of THOSE days yesterday and I knew my fate with the first race. I put up two in the 5.15 at Brighton – A Pint Of Bear 2nd at 11/2 beaten a nose and Blue Collar Lady who was 3rd at 9/2.
I might be able to find the winner of the opener at Ludlow – down to just ONE RUNNER with the defection of Maldini Milano leaving Percy Shelley to come home alone.
All the races are single digit field sizes with the good to firm ground (presumably) to blame and I’ll give the card a swerve with further non runners a distinct possibility.
TWISTING ON ANOTHER DICKENS WIN
⭕ 3.15 Sedgefield The County Durham course only fares slightly better in the runners department.
The bang in form Dickens is taken to complete his hat-trick and in doing so make it 5 wins from his last 6 by landing this 2m 4f handicap hurdle.
Trained by Jennie Candlish, he has been shrewdly placed and escapes a penalty for his latest easy success at Newton Abbot which came in a conditional riders race.
So he is very much the proverbial ‘winner without a penalty’ and might be able to defy the hike in grade.
STORM ALERT!
⭕ 4.30 Nottingham A real end of season look to the busy Nottingham card and the only bet that stood out was Stormy Monday in this 10 furlong handicap.
The three-year-old was heading the morning Betdaq Betting Exchange betting for a competitive heat.
He proved himself on the forecast good to soft ground with a win at Doncaster last time out which followed up his Epsom win in August when he pulled nicely clear under today’s pilot Kieran Shoemark.
There’s a stack of dangers but I thought the lightly raced Mawood was of interest at double figure odds after the penny dropped for him with a win at Redcar last time out so makes sense to include him.
BEAR FORM LOOKS GOOD
⭕ 7.10 Kempton Bear Island can hopefully round off a good day. He won over course and distance in July and comes into this on the back of a big run at Southwell last time out when fourth to Bin Ajwad who has also won since.
It looks by far the best form on offer with biggest danger likely to come from the Roger Varian trained Grey Soul with Jack Michell looking a positive jockey booking after he has been apprentice ridden in his first three races.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
3.15 Sedgefield (WIN 10)
BET 4.4pts win DICKENS
4.30 Nottingham (both WIN 10)
BET 2.7pts win STORMY MONDAY
BET 0.8pts win MAWOOD
★ 7.10 Kempton (WIN 10, nap)
BET 5.4pts win BEAR ISLAND
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