NFL WEEK 7: This Week 7 kicked off with a Thursday night AFC North battle that turned into an instant classic, as newly minted Cincinnati Bengal Joe Flacco outdueled fellow 40-something Aaron Rodgers in a 33-31 Cincinnati win that featured 866 total yards of offense. While I doubt either fan base is making Super Bowl plans, the division is as wide-open as ever with the Ravens struggling and the Browns staring at the abyss, and with both the Bengals and Steelers now led by veteran Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, there are legitimate reasons for hope in a jumbled AFC.
The sun has shone brightly on our NFL picks so far this season, as another 3-1 week puts us at a tidy 17-7 on the year, so I hope you’ve been following along. Here’s what we’ve got for this week, including picks for both Monday night games:
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -2.5, 36)
Recommendation: Cleveland -2.5 at 1.91
It’s been an ugly start to the season for both of these teams, and it’s going to be an ugly day in Cleveland on Sunday as rain and occasional gale-force winds are in the forecast. That means we’ll be in for a grind-it-out, pound the rock game featuring plenty of between-the-tackles running, and though both teams have quality tailbacks in De’Von Achane and Quinshon Judkins, there is a huge difference in the quality of the two defensive fronts, with the Browns having the markedly better unit. The Miami defense is one of the worst in the league by any measure, surrendering 29 points per game and ranking next-to-last in the NFL in yards allowed per play (6.3), and they’ve been utterly unable to stop the run over the past two weeks in losses to the Panthers and Chargers. This is an ideal matchup for a Browns team with an excellent defense and a rookie quarterback… Dillon Gabriel won’t be asked to do much in this game. Browns win an ugly one.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers (SF -1.5, 47)
Recommendation: moneyline (to win) at 2.05
San Francisco has been an excellent bounce-back team in recent years, nearly always following a loss with a good performance. That said, the Niners are in a tough spot here against a Falcons squad that might be the NFL’s most underrated team at the moment. The Falcons have won 3 of 4 and are coming off a double-digit victory over AFC favorite Buffalo in which they limited the explosive Bills offense to 14 points and 291 total yards, continuing their surprising defensive dominance under first-year coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. The once-porous Atlanta D now leads the NFL in yards allowed and will be facing a banged-up San Francisco offense in this game, as the Niners are still without starting quarterback Brock Purdy and top receiver Ricky Pearsall. And the injuries on the other side of the ball may be even more difficult to overcome, particularly the loss of All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner, the captain and most important player on that San Fran defense. Without Warner and Nick Bosa, the Niners front seven will really have their hands full with Bijan Robinson, the league’s best running back, and an improving Atlanta offense. The wrong team is favored here — Falcons win by at least a touchdown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions (DET -6, 53)
Recommendation: Detroit -6 at 1.91
The Bucs have managed to hold things together despite all the injuries they’ve endured, winning back-to-back games against playoff contenders Seattle and San Francisco to claim sole possession of first place in the NFC South. Now, however, they face their toughest test of the young season, a road trip to Detroit to face an explosive Lions team that is still smarting from a Monday night loss to Kansas City last week. The Tampa defense is vulnerable in the secondary and ranks 25th in in the league in points allowed, surrendering 25.2 per game, so it’s difficult to imagine them having much success slowing down the high-fluing Detroit offense, a unit that averages 31.8 points per game, second-best in the NFL, and has put up 30+ points in five consecutive home games. Can Baker Mayfield and the Tampa offense keep pace, despite missing starting running back Bucky Irving and Pro Bowl WR Chris Godwin? I have my doubts. As a matter of fact, if Mayfield doesn’t do a good job protecting the football this one could get ugly. I expect the Lions to re-establish their dominance in this game.
Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -3, 41)
Recommendation: Houston +3 at 1.95
It was an ugly start to the season for Houston, particularly on offense, where C.J. Stroud and the passing game struggled to find any rhythm as the team dropped three straight games. They seem to be hitting their stride, however, putting up 70 combined points in their past two games, blowout wins over Tennessee and Baltimore. The defense, as you would expect from a DeMeco Ryans team, has been excellent all year, allowing a mere 12.2 points per game, the top mark in the league, and ranking 4th in yards allowed. This is going to be a difficult matchup for the plodding Seattle offense, as top wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, easily the Seahawks’ best player on that side of the ball, will be shadowed all day by Derek Stingley Jr., perhaps the league’s best cover corner. If Stingley manages to limit Smith-Njigba like he does with pretty much everyone, it’s going to be awfully difficult for Seattle to move the ball in this game. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks are tough against the run but suspect in the secondary, ranking 26th in the NFL in pass yards allowed, so Stroud and top receiver Nico Collins should have some opportunities downfield in this one. I’m anticipating an upset here, but this should be a tight, low-scoring game, so I’ll certainly be taking those 3 points.
