NFL WEEK 8: Justin Herbert and the Chargers kicked off this Week 8 with a 37-10 pummeling of visiting Minnesota on Thursday night, keeping the Bolts within a game of Denver in the AFC West, a division that’s shaping up to be among the toughest in the league now that Kansas City is starting to roll. The Vikings fell to 3-4, sole occupiers of last place in another one of the NFL’s toughest divisions, the NFC North, and with their quarterback situation in shambles, the outlook for the remainder of the season is grim.
With six teams on bye this week the Sunday slate is a couple of games lighter than usual, but there are some intriguing matchups, highlighted by Green Bay’s visit to Pittsburgh on Sunday night, the Aaron Rodgers Revenge Game. We split our four picks last week, missing both the primetime games (Falcons, Texans) but hitting on the Browns and Lions. That puts this column at 19-9 on the season thus far, so, as we say every week, I hope you’ve been following along. Here’s what we’ve got for Sunday:
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -7.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta -7.5 at 1.95
It’s a full-on collapse in Miami, with the mixture of on-field incompetence and off-field finger-pointing sure to cost coach Mike McDaniel his job in the near future. The most recent catastrophe was a 31-6 hammering at the hands of the lowly Browns, and it doesn’t get any easier with a road trip to Atlanta this week to face a Falcons team that has been excellent on defense this season, ranking second in the NFL in yards allowed. That’s bad news for a Miami offense that has been among the league’s worst, especially since losing Tyreek Hill, and doesn’t seem to play with much energy or enthusiasm. The outlook may be even worse on the other side of the ball, as the Dolphins rank last in the NFL in rushing defense, surrendering 160 yards per game and 5.2 yards per attempt on the ground, and they’ll be facing what is perhaps the league’s best 1-2 punch at running back in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. This is a “get right” spot for the Falcons after a disappointing loss to San Francisco last week, and I think they do get right… in a big way.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (TB -3.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: Tampa Bay -3.5 at 1.91
Are the Saints a dangerous home ‘dog here? I’ve heard some people on that side this week, and situationally I understand it: they’ve been tough in the Superdome, winning once and losing three one-score games, and the Bucs offense looked like a shell of itself against Detroit last week, producing only 9 points and 251 total yards. That being said, let’s not lose sight of the big picture here: the Saints are 1-6 for a reason. The offense is predictable and punchless, with its best player, RB Alvin Kamara, over the hill and unproductive, and backup-level talent at the most important position, quarterback. The defense hasn’t been good, either, especially up front, where they rank 24th in rushing defense and have struggled to generate consistent pressure. I expect the Bucs to get back to the basics on offense this week, running the ball behind their outstanding o-line to set up opportunities for Baker Mayfield downfield. The Saints are the right kind of opponent for a bounce-back. Tampa gets it done.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -7, 43.5)
Recommendation: New York +7 at 1.92
Don’t look now, but the Giants may be starting to turn the corner behind rookie QB Jaxson Dart, who has been the shot in the arm that the offense desperately needed after a depressingly familiar start with Russell Wilson under center. They beat these Eagles in convincing fashion just two weeks ago, limiting Saquon Barkley and the vaunted Philly rushing attack to 73 yards on 20 attempts, and this time around the Eagles won’t have A.J. Brown, easily their most formidable downfield threat. We’ve seen Jalen Hurts have a hard time getting the passing game going without Brown in the past, and if he exceeds 150-175 pass yards in this one I’ll be surprised. But it’s the matchup on the other side of the ball that has me excited about the Giants here, as the New York offense has been rolling under Dart and seems to be improving every week, while the Eagles have not lived up to their usual standards defensively, ranking in the bottom-half of the league in nearly every major statistical category. I know many are counting on the motivational factor here, hoping that the Eagles will play inspired football and show some professional pride after getting beaten by these Giants so recently. And the Eagles are the defending champs, with a hard-earned reputation for being a tough out at home. This Giants team won’t go quietly, though, and I think they keep this one close if they can’t pull off the outright win again.
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (DEN -3, 51)
Recommendation: Dallas +3 at 1.91
Ex-Dallas coach Mike McCarthy did a televised interview this week where he called the Cowboys “an ascending team”, and if you’ve been paying attention, it’s hard to disagree with that assessment. The Dallas offense in particular has been red-hot lately, averaging 37 points per game over the team’s last four contests and leading the NFL in yards per game, and though Denver is tough defensively, the recent schedule has padded the numbers a bit, and the last time the Broncos saw an above-average offense they lost to the Chargers, after losing to the Colts, another good offense, the previous week. So, sure, they’ve been stout against the Giants, Jets, Eagles, and Burrow-less Bengals, but those teams do not stress a defense the way this Dallas passing attack does, and with CeeDee Lamb back in the lineup the Cowboys are humming at full strength again. Can the middling Denver offense keep pace here? I have my doubts, but with a close game being a definite possibility, I’ll gladly take the 3 points here.
