STAKING PLAN TO THE RESCUE: Winner-a-day Daqman adjusted his stakes yesterday so that just the one winner secured a narrow profit from four bets.
WON 3-1 SKIATHOS
*Skiathos is a two-year-old trained by Karl Burke, who added more than £60k in prizemoney from a double at Chantilly yesterday, including another 2yo, Half Sovereign, in the prestigious fillies’ juvenile, the Prix Miesque.
LAYS LOGIC ON THE GUINEAS: Today Daqman asks why the clamour to make a Ballydoyle two-year-old favourite for next year’s 2,000 Guineas? The facts suggest applying Lays Logic instead!
SEQUENCE OF O’BRIEN FLOPS
Is it Action, man? Albert Einstein? Puerto Rico? Hawk Mountain? Or will Gstaad be favourite for the 2,000 Guineas after Saturday night’s Breeders Cup Juvenile?
I wouldn’t waste your time worrying – or waste your betting wallet wagering- on which one of the Ballydoyle mob will lead the market for the first Classic of 2026 and where to place a winter ante-post bet.
Gstaad is even money to conquer the star-spangled banner at Del Mar. That happens to be his sire’s name and his dam’s sire is Exceed And Excel.
I wouldn’t read anything into that and I wouldn’t stop you backing him either, despite his consecutive defeats in the Morny, National Stakes and Dewhurst.
But, with half a dozen and more still vying for top dog, no way can you name the best at Ballydoyle and it’s not certain who gets to the Guineas never mind who wins it.
Though the odds are stacked against them, punters will follow a magic name even when flying in the face of the facts.
O’Brien this year continued a sequence of big-name flops in the Guineas, some you find hard to believe even now. It’s been five years of failure on Newmarket Heath.
2020: Wichita 2nd 15-2; three others beaten 15 lengths and more.
2021: Battleground 9-2 favourite 13th; Van Gogh 8th, Wembley 11th.
2022: Luxembourg 3rd 9-2, Point Lonsdale 10th 11-2.
2023: Auguste Rodin was 12th of 14 at 13-8 favourite
2024: City of Troy was 9th of 11 at 6-4 on favourite
So the only point in finding the Ballydoyle favourite at a price before he shortens on or before Guineas day is to lay him for all money!
TUESDAY’S ACTION ON BETDAQ
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
⭕ 2.10 Catterick The final flat meeting of the year at the North Yorkshire venue presents a good bet in the shape of Nightsinwhitesatin who has run into a real purple patch of form. After back to back wins at Nottingham and Newbury she has run with credit since at a higher level and off her higher mark. She was only beaten three and a half lengths in a class 2 last time out and should welcome this drop back to class 4 level.
BETDAQ 4.1pts to win 10 at 3.4.
⭕ 4.20 Leicester Marching Mac looks vulnerable here after his narrow heavy ground success just eight days ago. The resulting 5lb penalty makes me look elsewhere. The Charles Hills trained filly Asinara appeals more. She is versatile ground wise and comes here after three good runs at Bath including a win.
BETDAQ 3.0pts to win 10 at 4.3.
⭕★ 8.00 Wolverhampton He’s A Gentleman goes well here and the booking of Billy Loughnane is an obvious positive. He was weak in the market before a creditable course and distance second last time out and should be able to go one better in this company. Captain Parma looks the obvious danger – he’s up 5lb but seems progressive.
BETDAQ 5.7pts to win 10 (nap) at 2.74.
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
