BUNDESLIGA FRIDAY: The Ultra previews AUGSBURG v DORTMUND with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AUGSBURG V DORTMUND
7.30pm Friday night football comes from the Bundesliga on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week as Augsburg host Dortmund! This is a big game for both sides – it’s a game that Dortmund will be expected to win – and it’s no surprise that they come into the game as the odds on favourites. Dortmund are trading 1.74 with Augsburg 5.0 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing.
It’s fair to say that the Bundesliga title will be going to Bayern Munich this season, but there’s plenty to play for in behind. Dortmund will be pushing for a Champions League spot again – they have managed to get the final spot for the last two seasons. Augsburg are under pressure at the bottom of the table; they aren’t sitting in the bottom two but they are only three points away. Last season they finished in the lower end of mid-table; that’s probably a fair reflection of their standard to be honest.
Dortmund have the third best attacking figure in the Bundesliga this season, but they are miles behind Bayern. They have an attacking figure of 1.66 compared to the league leaders at 2.41. Dortmund have also been very good at the back this season; they have the second best defensive figure with an average xG conceded of 1.09 which is a very impressive figure. The only side with a better defensive figure this season is Bayern – no shame in that from a Dortmund point of view.
It’s clear to see that the Bundesliga is a very attacking league when you look at the under-lining numbers – the lowest average xG created is 1.31. That’s why it’s very worrying from an Augsburg point of view that their attacking figure is 1.32. Obviously at the bottom of most major leagues in Europe, you have sides under 1.0 but just because Augsburg are sitting at 1.32 it’s still very poor compared to the rest. They’ve also been poor at the back – an average xG conceded of 1.61 is very high by European standards; but in the Bundesliga that’s a mid-table figure!
The market is expecting an entertaining game with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.56, but given Dortmund have been so solid at the back I wouldn’t be confident that Augsburg can score here. Both Teams To Score is odds on too; only three ticks bigger than Over 2.5 goals and that feels very short to be honest. Both Teams Not To Score looks a nice option at 2.6 or bigger, but I can’t see past the Dortmund win here – they are levels above this Augsburg side and I feel we’re getting enough value at 1.74 to have a Five Star NAP!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Dortmund to beat Augsburg at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE..
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BDAuDo
