BUNDESLIGA AND SERIE A PREVIEW: The Ultra previews BAYER LEVERKUSEN v DORTMUND and AC MILAN v LAZIO with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V DORTMUND
5.30pm We have a cracking Saturday from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We have two intriguing games from the Bundesliga and Serie A – both have very interesting markets too. We kick things off with Bayer Leverkusen host Dortmund in the Bundesliga. With Bayern Munich already seemingly cruising to the title, this is a massive game for both sides as they bid to hold onto Champions League football. It was an excellent week for the two of them there with Dortmund hammering Villarreal 4-0 and Bayer Leverkusen beating Manchester City 2-0 in Manchester. I know Guardiola made a lot of changes, but that was an incredible result for Leverkusen – City went off 1.38 to win that game. Both sides must come into this game full of confidence, and it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. Obviously you can pick holes in both sides – Leverkusen have been through a lot this season, they’ve sold their best payers and then had to change manager quickly with Erik ten Hag not working out. Although that was a shock decision only two games into the season, it seems to have paid off for Leverkusen – the atmosphere must have been really toxic – it’s not often you see a club come out with a statement like they did after the sacking too!
It’s no surprise that we have an open betting heat here. There’s actually little between the sides in the betting. Bayer Leverkusen are the marginal favourites with home advantage at 2.6 with Dortmund 2.76 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. You wouldn’t be surprised to see flip-flopping favourites here a few times in the build-up to the game. There’s only one point between them in the table as they sit third and fourth, and there isn’t much between them on the under-lining numbers too. There’s only 0.02 too between them on attacking xG, but the big difference has been at the back. Dortmund have been much more solid with an average xG conceded of only 1.14 compared to Leverkusen at 1.42. That defensive figure from Dortmund is also the second best in the Bundesliga – you could easily argue that we have the wrong favourites here based on that. Everything I look at here screams an exceptionally close game, and I would have the market even more open – I feel the draw is offering plenty of value at 3.85.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BDLeDo
AC MILAN V LAZIO
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Saturday night as AC Milan host Lazio. The title race in Italy took another dramatic twist last weekend, and maybe for the first time AC Milan fans will really start to believe. Once again, they landed a win in the Milan Derby with a hard fought 1-0 win over Inter – their recent record in the Milan Derby is exceptional. That result meant Roma said top of the table with AC Milan just one point behind them – next come Napoli two points off top spot and Inter three points. We’ve had a tonne of drama already with everyone dropping points along the way, and I’m sure we have plenty more drama to come! AC Milan have been consistent though; they’ve only lost once all season and that was on the opening weekend – they were exceptionally unlucky to lose a game they absolutely dominated too. Luck always swings around during the season because they were very lucky to win the Milan Derby – Inter finished with 64% possession and an xG of over 2.0 while conceding under 1.0. You’d have to say that Inter have been playing the best football this season, but for the time being the title race is wide open.
This should be a good game – but Lazio have definitely not been at their best this season. It’s always competitive between these two, but this is a game that AC Milan should win. It’s no surprise that they come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.62 with Lazio 6.4 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. Lazio have really struggled this season; they sit in mid-table and their under-lining numbers are very poor. They should actually be even lower than they are sitting in the table, and I can’t see them getting a European spot this season. Their average xG created is only 1.27 which is a mid-table Serie A attacking figure, and they are conceding more than they are creating. They’ve got very lucky at the back so far this season with sides only converting half of the chances Lazio have conceded. I feel Lazio are there for the taking, and we’re getting so much value on AC Milan here in my opinion they are worth a Five Star NAP at 1.62!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win AC Milan to beat Lazio at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAAcLa
