PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews MANCHESTER CITY v LEEDS, EVERTON v NEWCASTLE and TOTTENHAM v FULHAM all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER CITY V LEEDS
3pm It’s another fantastic Saturday from the Premier League on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We have no early kick off this week with so many teams involved in European action so we get things started with three fixtures kicking off at 3pm. By far the most interesting fixture in my opinion is Manchester City hosting Leeds – especially with the week City have had! Everything was looking rosy heading into the International Break after they just beat Liverpool impressively – they looked like they would be the main challenger to Arsenal this season. A loss to Newcastle last weekend was definitely a big blow – it’s already hard to see them closing a seven point gap with Arsenal looking so solid. To make matters worse, after Pep Guardiola decided to make some changes midweek they lost 2-0 at home to Bayer Leverkusen! Given Leverkusen have lost Xabi Alonso and sold their best players; it’s fair to say that result was a shock! City will point to the xG figures and say they didn’t play badly; they finished with the game with an xG of 2.53, and in fairness against Newcastle they had a figure of 1.83 with 67% possession – they can say that they were unlucky to lose there too.
This is a game that City will be expected to win given Leeds have come up from the Championship. After a very positive start, they look likely to be dragged into the relegation fight – Wolves and Burnley will go down in my opinion, and then the final spot will be taken by either Leeds or West Ham with Nottingham Forest now moving in the right direction under Sean Dyche. It’s no surprise to see City come into this game as the odds on favourites – the home win is trading 1.26 with Leeds 14.0 and the draw is 7.0 at the time of writing. It’s clear to see City have dropped their level – their average xG created is 1.66 and at their peak that was around 2.0. They have got more solid at the back though; even allowing for the fact they’ve lost twice in the last week! Leeds have a mid-table attacking figure, but they’ve been struggling to score goals and that’s why they’ve dropped into the bottom three now. I’m keen to keep stakes small here, but I fancy City to keep a clean sheet on the way to winning – Both Teams Not To Score is worth backing at 1.81.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLMcLe
EVERTON V NEWCASTLE
5.30pm Next we have the most open market of the day as Everton host Newcastle. We have a very open betting heat here – Newcastle are favourites at 2.72 with Everton 2.9 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. It’s fair to say now that Newcastle have had a disappointing start to the season – they come into this weekend sitting down in 14th, very unlikely to reclaim their Champions League spot – perhaps even any European spot. They were beaten midweek in the Champions League too but in fairness three wins from five games there still leaves them in a decent position to get to the next stage given 24 teams go through these days. The problem for Newcastle is quite obvious – they are really struggling to score goals. Their fans won’t like to hear this given all the drama, but they are really missing Isak. They have an average xG created of 1.43, but their converted goals average is way below that at 1.08 – in fairness, that attacking figure wouldn’t put them into the European spots, but if they were converting their chances at least they would be inside the top half of the table.
Everton recorded a huge 1-0 win at Old Trafford on Monday night – they had a man sent off early and the market moved United into 1.25 just before Everton scored! They fought extremely hard and held onto the lead in a remarkable defending display. A proper hard fought Dabid Moyes win – obviously the biggest drama was the red card; Moyes came out after and said he didn’t mind his players fighting between themselves! Although Everton have moved stadiums, they have been much more solid when they’ve had home advantage since Moyes returned. Obviously Newcastle haven’t been playing as badly as their place in the table suggests, but it is very clear to see they are struggling for goals. This is another game where I want to keep stakes reasonably low, but on balance I feel the 2.72 on Newcastle is a little short – I would have the market even more open to be honest – Everton have only lost once at home all season in the Premier League, and from a value point of view I’m happy with the Newcastle lay.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Everton at 2.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLEvNe
TOTTENHAM V FULHAM
8pm We finish Saturday with a London Derby as Spurs host Fulham. This won’t be an issue here because it’s two London clubs, but I quite like the 8pm fixture on Saturday – the negative is it’s probably a mare for traveling fans if they have a distance to go on public transport. You get the feeling that this is a big game for Spurs and Thomas Frank – only one win in their last five Premier League games and a loss midweek in the Champions League means he’s starting to feel the heat. Arsenal absolutely hammered them last weekend, they conceded five goals midweek against PSG and their performance levels are quite alarming. Spurs fans might actually lose faith in Frank quite quickly from here. Their average xG created is only 1.15 which is the fourth worst attacking figure in the Premier League – they had a positive start results wise but they have been extremely lucky to collect the amount of points they have. I can see them dropping down the table now we have an extended run of games with no International Breaks in the way. It definitely feels like they need something good to happen fast.
Fulham have been solid this season – they are four points behind Spurs but they are playing much better football. They are creating more – not hard given how limited Spurs have been to be honest – but they’ve also been marginally better at the back. It’s no surprise to see a lot of willing layers for Spurs here to be honest. Spurs are trading 2.3 with Fulham 3.45 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. I know Fulham haven’t managed to get as many results as Spurs this season, but I do feel looking at the under-lining numbers that the 2.3 on Spurs here is much too short. I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest – so far this season Spurs have been getting away with things at the back too, but perhaps the floodgates opened this week with nine goals conceded. That being said, it was against much better opposition than Fulham in fairness! Once again today, I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but from a value point of view I’m very happy with the Spurs lay.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Fulham at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLToFu
