PREMIER LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Striker previews LEEDS v CHELSEA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEEDS V CHELSEA
8.15pm The midweek Premier League action continues on Betdaq Betting Exchange, and we have a cracking night on Wednesday. We have six fixtures to enjoy, and while we have Arsenal and Liverpool both in action at home, in my opinion the most interesting fixture is Leeds host Chelsea. Arsenal are trading 1.35 to beat Brentford and Liverpool are 1.39 to beat Sunderland – we have a far more interesting market here.
As you would expect, Chelsea come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.82 with Leeds 4.7 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Chelsea had a hard fought draw at the weekend at home to Arsenal, which was a cracking result considering they went down to ten men after 38 minutes. They actually still finished the game with a higher xG figure than Arsenal which is highly impressive – perhaps you’d be asking Arsenal questions given they only created an xG of 1.19 with 62% possession and an extra man.
Chelsea currently have the second best defensive figure in the Premier League – an average xG conceded of 1.09, and Sunday once again proved they have been rock solid at the back. This will be a game that they will be expected to win now, but Leeds away is always a tricky fixture even allowing for the fact that Leeds are only back in the Premier League. They are under pressure too – they stayed in the relegation zone after the weekend; however they were away to Manchester City! They came exceptionally close to getting a draw too, City only scored the winner in injury time.
At the moment, it looks like Wolves and Burnley are nailed on to go down. That leaves the final relegation spot between Leeds and West Ham – Nottingham Forest are only within one point of them, but morale is very high there with the arrival of Sean Dyche and they are playing better football. I actually feel Leeds will survive – but they do have major issues. They have a mid-table xG created, but they haven’t been taking their chances. They are only marginally conceding more than they are creating, but they’ve been very sloppy at the back.
Their average xG conceded is 1.38 but their actual goals conceded is 1.92. That’s a big difference; but surely eventually their luck will turn. Chelsea have been playing some impressive football this season, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.82 here – Leeds haven’t been playing as bad as their results suggest and obviously home advantage is massive given their support. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here.
I know Leeds have had issues at the back, but as I highlight above they haven’t been as bad as the goals they have conceded. Chelsea have obviously been superb at the back too. Over 2.5 goals is trading as the favourite here at 1.87, but I feel there’s value in the Unders here – Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.1 and I feel we won’t see as many goals as the market expects.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLLeCh
