NFL WEEK 15: As the season enters the home stretch each game becomes more critical for teams in playoff contention, and one of those teams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, kicked off this Week 15 by laying an egg and suffering an inexcusable loss to the 4-9 Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night, as 37-year-old Kirk Cousins turned back the clock and torched the Bucs defense for 373 yards and 3 touchdowns. The loss drops Tampa to a game behind Carolina in the NFC South and 2 games back of the final NFC Wild Card spot, so the margin of error has been reduced to zero.
The Sunday slate features several matchups with major playoff implications, but the top storyline in my estimation has to be the stunning return of Philip Rivers — yes, that Philip Rivers, the 44-year-old who hasn’t played since 2021 and was set to be on the ballot for the Hall of Fame next year but will instead lace ’em up for the Colts this week as they head west to face the fearsome Seahawks defense. Rivers has supposedly been coaching high school football for the past few years, but he has a relationship with Shane Steichen and allegedly knows the offense… at least that’s the word. We shall see. But, hey- I know I’ll be watching!
Here are my favorite games this week:
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears (CHI -7.5, 38.5)
Recommendation: Chicago -7.5 at 1.95
The Browns have lost 5 of 6 but the offense has showed some signs of life in recent weeks behind rookie QB Shedeur Sanders, who threw for 364 yards and 3 TDs in a loss to the lowly Titans last week. And therein lies the problem: yes, the offense has been productive in spurts (though still plagued by negative plays and turnovers), but the defense has taken a step back, particularly against the run, and they now face a Chicago team that is running the ball as well as anyone in the NFL. The Cleveland front seven can expect a heavy dose of the “Thunder & Thunder” tandem of Swift and Monangai, and given that they just surrendered 161 yards and 2 TDs to Tennessee’s Tony Pollard, it’s tough to feel good about their chances here. And this will be a difficult spot for Sanders as well, facing a Bears defense leads the NFL in interceptions plus the weather, as temperatures are going to be well below freezing. I feel a blowout incoming.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams (LA -6, 55)
Recommendation: Detroit +6 at 1.91
The Rams have been rolling, winning 7 of 8, and are starting to have the look of a Super Bowl contender as we head into the last month of the regular season. The Lions, meanwhile, are fighting for their playoff lives at 8-5, but I don’t believe much separates these two teams. They both have explosive offenses, with Detroit leading the league in scoring at 30.3 ppg and LA ranking fourth in that category at 29.2 ppg, and both have “bend but don’t break” defenses that allow some yards but excel at creating negative plays and forcing turnovers. The Detroit defense is particularly good against the run, so I expect the Rams to lean heavily on the arm of Matt Stafford and his terrific WR tandem of Nacua and Adams. The Rams had better protect Stafford, however, as the Lions will scheme up some exotic pressures and try to force some quick decisions from a QB who has been known to put the ball up for grabs at times throughout his career. Jared Goff and the Lions offense has been clicking in recent weeks, putting up 122 combined points in the team’s past three wins, and they should be able to move the ball consistently on this Rams D. In what is likely to be a back-and-forth shootout with a “last team that has the ball wins” feel, six points just seems like too many. Detroit is very capable of winning this one outright.
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -3, 42)
Recommendation: Pittsburgh -3 at 1.91
Just when people had given up on the Dolphins and were calling for Mike McDaniel’s firing, they’ve turned it around with four straight wins and are still hanging on to playoff hopes by the slimmest of threads. This is a tough spot, though, a Monday night road game against a Pittsburgh team that is coming off a critical road win over Baltimore to reclaim solo 1st in the AFC North. The Steelers look like they’re going to be without star pass-rusher T.J. Watt, but they will be getting run-stuffing interior lineman Derrick Harmon back, which should be a key addition against a Miami offense that has leaned on the running game during the recent winning streak. Dolphins RB De’Von Achane, their best offensive player, has been battling a rib injury and could be limited in this one, further complicating things for an offense that doesn’t want to become over-reliant on Tua Tagovailoa in a spot like this, facing a fierce Pittsburgh pass-rush in a high-pressure road environment on a night when temperatures are expected to hover around freezing (for those keeping score at home, Miami has now lost 13 straight games when kickoff temps have been sub-40 degrees Fahrenheit). I expect wily old vet Aaron Rodgers to play a cleaner, more mistake-free game than Tua, and that might turn out to be the difference. I have a hard time envisioning Miami winning this one.
