SERIE A PREVIEW: The Ultra previews JUVENTUS v ROMA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
JUVENTUS V ROMA
7.45pm We have a cracker from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange this Saturday with the focus on Serie A as Juventus host Roma. Most Italian eyes might be on the Italian Super Cup in Saudi Arabia this week, but this is a huge game for these two. They’ve both lost points recently, and you could easily call this a must win game for Juventus. They are seven points behind Inter Milan at the top of the table, and they are four points behind Roma who sit in fourth spot. With home advantage, Juventus need a win to get back into the mix.
Roma actually topped the table for a while, but back-to-back losses recently against Napoli and Cagliari knocked them off top spot. I don’t think many football fans would have seriously considered them in the title race at the start of the season, and realistically a top four spot and Champions League football would be a massive achievement for Roma given how long it’s been. Looking at their performance levels, Juventus should be higher in the table – they’ve really struggled in front of goal this season.
Creating good quality chances and scoring goals has been a problem for a few years for Juventus. They seem to have finally turned a corner on the creating chances bit this season, but they just aren’t converting them. They have an average xG created of 1.74 this season which is the second highest attacking figure in Serie A – they have only converted an average of 1.27 though and there’s a lot of points left on the table with that difference. You can see why they come into this game as the favourites, but you can also see why they aren’t trading odds on given how many games Roma have won this season.
Juventus are trading 2.18 with Roma 4.1 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. Roma have been excellent this season; but they have come up short when they have met the top sides. They’ve already lost to Inter Milan, AC Milan and Napoli this season – you could argue that they haven’t really beaten a top side yet this season in Serie A. They are in the top four on attacking figures and the top five on defensive figures. Their average xG conceded is only 1.19, but they’ve got away with things at the back this season – they’ve actually conceded less than half of those chances!
While Juventus are clearly playing the better football, I do feel that the 2.18 is a little short here – they have clearly struggled to convert their chances and Roma have been so solid at the back too. I expect Roma to make this game closer than the odds suggest, and from a value point of view I’m happy with a Juventus lay at 2.18.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Juventus to beat Roma at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAJuRo
