ITALIAN SUPER CUP FINAL PREVIEW: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v BOLOGNA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V BOLOGNA
7pm It’s Italian Super Cup Final time on Betdaq Betting Exchange as Napoli and Bologna face off in Saudi Arabia on Monday evening. Napoli meet Bologna after two entertaining Semi-Finals. The Napoli v AC Milan Semi-Final looked wide open and we had a very open betting heat too – that turned out to be a reasonably smooth 2-0 win for Napoli while Bologna drew 1-1 with Inter Milan and won it on penalties. Inter went into that game as the odds on favourites so it’s fair to say that was a reasonable shock – however Bologna have been a very solid side for a number of seasons now.
This should be a fitting final. Napoli have been in the title battle in Serie A while Bologna have dropped more points and are fighting for a European spot. There’s very little between the sides on performance levels this season though. I highlighted how good Bologna have been at the back ahead of their Semi-Final against Inter Milan – they have the second best defensive figure in Serie A this season with an average xG conceded of just 1.12. Napoli have also been impressive at the back though; they are just 0.02 behind Bologna. Both sides have actually conceded the same amount of Serie A goals this season.
There’s been very little between them in attack too – Napoli have an average xG created of 1.49 and Bologna are just behind them on 1.47. There’s only 0.02 on xG performance levels between the sides at the back and in attack! Napoli come into the game as the favourites at 2.2 with Bologna 3.9 and the draw is 3.2 at the time of writing. While Napoli are current Serie A Champions and have a huge amount going for them, I have to say I was surprised to see them trading as short as 2.2 when I clicked into the market.
I expected the market to be a little bit more open – Bologna are a very solid side – they are tough to beat as Inter Milan have already found out this week! An Italian Super Cup win for Bologna would be a massive achievement too. I do feel we’ll see quite a cagey game here; Bologna approach nearly every game in a cagey fashion and it’s hard to see them changing here. They have built their success on being solid at the back in recent years. Under 2.5 goals is a tempting bet at 1.66 but the market is expecting a reasonably cagey game with that price. Additionally in a Final, things could get very open towards the end if either side are chasing the game. I couldn’t put anyone off the Unders position, but I do feel that the Napoli lay offers the best value here. Bologna can make this closer than odds of 2.2 suggest.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Napoli to beat Bologna at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ISNaBo
